Musical Chairs: Race for Mercedes 2017

Published 12/12/2016, 7:00 AM EST

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As dusk set in the deserts of Abu Dhabi, there was relief in the air for some, joy for some while solemn silence for others. Little did the paddock know, that it was the calm before the storm. Just 5 days after winning the coveted World Drivers’ Championship, Nico Rosberg announced his retirement from the sport through social media. He cited his friends, family and a life of comfort away from the sport as major reasons for bowing out. Earlier, Nico signed a two-year extension which means he stays with the team until the end of 2018. With 2017 looming and a clean slate in the design department of teams, Mercedes were probably counting on their trusted, settled and now world champion drivers for some stability.

So, unsurprisingly the news did not ring well with the management. Niki claimed that Nico gave no time for a contingency plan and that it made Mercedes look dumb. Although understandable, but when a driver doesn’t feel like driving, you just can’t force him to, can you, Niki?

Speaking of backup plans, Mercedes has two juniors in Formula 1 just like RedBull does. Now, if we put RedBull in Mercedes’ shoes, the math is simple. Sainz goes to the A team and Gasly is put into the Toro Rosso. Even though Mercedes has two legit juniors in Formula 1, Niki still claims they have no back-up.

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On the other hand, Toto and Paddy have been out in the public claiming that over half the grid has called for Nico’s seat. Most of them are already committed to other teams. While the chances of them hiring from outside the sport for 2017 is next to nothing.

Who do you want in the vacant Mercedes seat?

So it is with a sad heart, we say that Pastor Maldonado, Kamui Kobayashi, Giedo van der Garde, Karun Chandhok and all the rest of the Mercedes PR department’s brainchildren are not getting in a Silver Arrow.

Read: Funniest reactions to Rosberg’s vacant seat at Mercedes. 

Now, what about the realistic candidate choices that Toto and the Mercedes management have? We at Essentially Sports put ourselves in Mr. Wolff’s and Dr. Zetsche’s shoes and analyze the choices:

Pascal Wehrlein

A few days ago, not having a solid race drive contract with a team for 2017, Pascal was on the back foot. The youngest ever DTM World Champion has blossomed in the Manor car in 2016. Coming to Formula 1 is never easy and hopping into a single seater after touring cars is a challenge. Having scored Manor’s only point of the season in Austria, Pascal proved he can handle the transition well. He’s consistently been testing for Sahara Force India and for Mercedes themselves. So, he has plenty of Formula One mileage under his belt already, given his rookie status.

Pascal has the most experience on the 2017 Pirelli PZero tyres which have been changed completely from their 2016 counterparts. That experience is an engineer’s goldmine.

Despite being impressive, Pascal has been pretty much unnoticed. Haryanto, a driver not known for his outright speed, was matching Pascal more often than not and with Ocon, the hyped Mercedes protégé, he struggled to keep up in the races.

The nail in the coffin really is that Force India chose an inexperienced Esteban Ocon over Pascal to replace the Renault-bound Nico Hulkenberg. They saw the data and went with Ocon. Makes one wonder if Pascal is indeed ready enough to be in a top-tier, probable championship winning car giving Lewis a run for his money.

Mercedes needs a known quantity for the 2017 season with the looming threat of RedBull in the wake of an upcoming aero-dominant formula again. Pascal, as Toto said is a risk and needs to grow more but if the other drivers’ contracts are tightly bound, we could see Toto risking it.

Chances of Happening: 7/10

Valterri Bottas

One out-going Finn being replaced by another. That’s 1-0 in favor of stability. Jokes aside, Valterri has made a definite mark in Formula 1. He’s experienced with the ins and outs of the sport, has a reputation of giving good feedback to his engineers and is a consistent benchmark. He’s had the upper hand on his teammate for pretty much their entire time together. Considering he’s a Finn and is more or less reserved in his ways, he might not give headaches to the Mercedes bosses and probably won’t implode with Hamilton on his side. He’s as reliable as you can get. His performances, though the Williams of yesteryear, have shadowed his abilities a bit.

On the other hand, he hasn’t outperformed Massa like a driver of his caliber should have. He has potential but has often not converted into a star-like performance. His drives to the podium have been smooth and calm. Nothing out of the ordinary for a solid mid-field driver.

Being managed partly by Toto Wolff himself previously is a definite advantage but it is also a hindrance as Bottas has all his cards on the table. He also has a contract with Williams for 2017 and with the youngest driver in Formula One as his new teammate (Lance Stroll), would Williams sacrifice their own stability factor just to please their engine supplier?

Chances of Happening: 8/10

Fernando Alonso

First of all, let us get that he’s in a tight contract with McLaren with no-get-out clause out of the way. Now, let us switch our brains into hype mode and imagine the scenes, the drama, the publicity, the PR boom if the Samurai actually switched to partner Hamilton after their turmoil-filled season together in 2007, where they finished equal on points.

It is no doubt, that Fernando is one of the top tier drivers in the sport currently and his desire to win a third world title and emulate Senna is not secret. Given the state and the reason he left Ferrari, the state of McLaren-Honda now, it doesn’t look like he’s going to fulfill his ambitious goal as of now given the number of years he may have left in the sport.

Read: 3 reasons why Alonso and Mercedes would be a bad idea. 

From Fernando’s perspective, he has stuck with McLaren through their bottommost period and is slowly but surely building something great back behind the scenes in Woking. But will he be around to reap those rewards?

Honda recently came out with the statement that they’ll be targeting podiums for 2017. Doesn’t sound too hopeful for World Championship contention, does it? Fernando’s bored with F1. Partly due to the cars, partly due to being at the back, so it makes sense for him to call Toto and ask him if he could fill Nico’s seat. From his side, it’s a win-win. If the Mercedes is good, it’s a win, if it’s bad, well he wasn’t going anywhere in a McLaren either way.

From Mercedes’ side, it is a Public Relations dynamite. It would be an exponential boost having Hamilton and Alonso on the same team. However, it would bring headaches as well. More so than the Hamilton-Rosberg pairing. Fernando proclaimed that he did not leave McLaren because of Hamilton. So, it’s anybody’s guess. Mercedes also gets a proven winner who can be quick out of the box and has experience driving with the proposed downforce levels of 2017. There is also a factor of Dr. Zetsche not being particularly fond of Alonso for his 2007 actions costing the company millions of pounds.

But the question is does Fernando see an opportunity? Will McLaren let him go? Or more importantly, does Toto and his management need that headache?

Chances of Happening: 5/10

Esteban Ocon

He’s known to have beaten “Mad Max” in their Formula 3 days. He scored 9 wins, 21 podiums and 15 pole positions on his way to take the Formula 3 title in 2014. Next, he went on to GP3, won the title there as well. So, in summary, Ocon is fast. Really fast. His lack of Formula 1 experience may have him at a disadvantage. As in, if Wehrlein isn’t considered as ready then on what basis is Ocon? Speed is one thing, consistency and level-headedness are another. Abu Dhabi being a prime example of that.

However, everything aside, Ocon has signed a multi-year deal with Force India which he is unlikely to get out off.

Chances of Happening: 4/10

Others

Sebastian Vettel, though a catch and a half for the German team, is set in his ways at Ferrari emulating Schumacher’s success. Kimi has never been more comfortable anywhere than he is now in Maranello owing to his rejuvenated form, so he’s not going anywhere.

The pairing of Daniel Ricciardo and Max Verstappen is too mellow and quick for RedBull to release them to Mercedes. They push each other and work well but will that continue once the championship is up for grabs in 2017? If and when they implode, then it’s a question of who will go where but right now, the Red Bull boys are tied up as well.

Carlos Sainz is also contracted with Toro Rosso for 2017 and RedBull won’t be too keen to lose their backup driver to Mercedes if and when the A-team explodes or is disrupted. However, Sainz is not too keen to wait for a call from Dr. Helmut Marko and will be on the lookout for his options beyond 2017.

Nico Hulkenberg fits Mercedes’ agendas point to point. He’s quick, German, experienced with Mercedes engines. He fits so well that Toto was prompted to ask Renault to let Hulk leave, to which Renault was quick to say “No, thank you.” Wonder what’s going in Hulk’s mind now.

Sergio Perez is in a similar boat as Sainz. He’s too talented for the place he is in right now. But, he is not at that potential yet that is required for the top guns of the sport. He seems content with Force India and though Force India is not known for blocking their drivers going to other teams, it’ll pinch a lot if Sergio leaves with his Mexican sponsors.

Coming to the retirees, Jenson in Abu Dhabi, looked like a guy who wanted to run out of the paddock the first chance he got. So, not a chance, he’s coming back. He still remains the only guy to beat Lewis Hamilton in a season before Nico Rosberg. To repeat that would be incentive enough, don’t you think? Also, two British drivers in a German car? Nein.

Felipe has made his intentions clear that he would love to come back for Rosberg’s seat. Probably thinking about avenging his 2008 crown from Lewis, but we all know it’s not going to happen. He got a heartfelt, well-deserved farewell in Brazil which should be the final farewell for him.

Conclusion

Toto Wolff has said that the decision needs to be brave. Gambling on an unknown quantity? Hiring someone who will implode with Hamilton? Team harmony or Market potential? These are questions everyone would be thinking. Valterri is the most logical choice as neither Wehrlein nor Ocon is ready enough to take on Red Bull and Ferrari if the performance gaps close. However, the racer in Toto must be leaning towards Fernando. You must have a Fernando Alonso in your car if you can.

Who do you want in the vacant Mercedes seat?

 

 

 

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Written by:

Jaskirat Arora

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Jaskirat Arora is the Co-Founder & Content Head of EssentiallySports. He developed an avid interest in sports from an early age and actively follows F1, NBA & Tennis.
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