Can Daniil Medvedev Overthrow Roger Federer at The Third Spot in ATP Rankings?

The rising wave of ATP, Daniil Medvedev has had his personal best season so far and probably amongst the NextGen of tennis, the Russian star has delivered the best results so far. Medvedev has qualified for his first-ever ATP Finals 2019 in London and presently he third in the race to London.

The next big question is can Medvedev take the third spot on the ATP’s column and knock the 20-time Grand Slam champion, Roger Federer down to the fourth spot and later conclude the year as World Number three tennis player by over-taking him.

Presently, Medvedev is 185 ATP points ahead of World Number three, Federer in the race to London. After Medvedev’s withdrawal from this week’s Moscow River Cup 2019, he will be competing at Vienna or Basel tournament, Rolex Paris Masters 2019 and then the ATP Finals 2019.

Also, the same applies to the Swiss legend who will be defending for the third spot on the ATP roaster.

1. Best Case Scenario For Daniil Medvedev:

By reviewing the present form of Medvedev, he doesn’t seem to stop winning or entering the finals. Suppose, the Russian star wins both the tournaments in Vienna/Basel and Paris he will gain 1500 points and his points tally would come to 7375.

At ATP Finals 2019, if Medvedev wins all his round-robin matches and becomes an undefeated champion then he will earn a total of 1500 points more in London. His sum total would aggregate to 8875 points.

However, in this case, it highly likely that Federer fails to retain his third position as he needs to earn more than 3185 points from Basel, Paris, and London. 

2. Best Case Scenario For Roger Federer:

This time putting Federer on an upper edge and assuming him to win his home-country tournament of Basel for the tenth time and later lifting up the Paris and London titles, Federer’s cumulative sum on ATP scale would reach 8690.

If Medvedev fails to pick up 2795 points before the season curtains downs, Roger Federer will remain on the third spot on the ATP scale. 

3. Worst Case Scenario For Daniil Medvedev:

If Medvedev loses in the round of 32 in Vienna and Basel will earn 20 points and in Paris, if he is an upset in the opening round, the Russian will just earn 10 points and wins no matches at ATP Finals. His sum total of ATP points would add up to 5905 points.

Provided, Federer picks up less than 215 points from all other tournaments, only then Medvedev can end the year as World Number three. 

4. Worst Case Scenario For Roger Federer:

If Federer loses in the round of 32 in Basel and in the opening round of Paris, the will earned a total of 30 points and wins no matches in ATP Finals. His ranking points tally would reach 5720.

Then, Medvedev can effortlessly seal the World Number three spot. 

5. Medvedev Winning the ATP 500, Paris Masters and London; Federer Being the Runner-up in All Three: 

If Medvedev wins all three of them and Federer becomes the runner-up in all the tournaments, that case would Medvedev and Federer’s total would come up to 8875 and 7590 points and in this case, the Russian would evidently take the third spot on the ATP roaster. (Assuming that both Federer and Medvedev win all round-robin matches in London.)

If either of them drops one of their matches in round-robin matches in London it won’t affect Medvedev’s ranking. Also if Federer wins all round-robin matches and Medvedev loses one of them, the Russian will still be World Number three. 

6. Medvedev Being the Runner-up at ATP 500, Paris Masters and London; Federer Being the Winner in All Three: 

If Medvedev happens to the finalist in Vienna/Basel, Paris and London, he will earn 1900 ATP points and his total would come to 7775 points and that is less than, Federer’s summation. Federer will have 8690 points, so clearly Medvedev cannot end the year as the third-ranked tennis player. (Assuming that both Federer and Medvedev win all round-robin matches in London.)

If either of them drops one of their matches in round-robin matches in London it won’t affect Federer’s ranking. Also if Medvedev wins all round-robin matches Federer loses one of them, the Swiss will still be World Number three. 

7. Medvedev Becoming the Semifinalist at ATP 500, Paris Masters and London; Federer Becoming the Quarterfinalist in Basel, Paris and wins just a match in London: 

In this case, Medvedev will earn 1570 points and his total would aggregate to 7445 ATP points. Considering Federer’s total, it would look like 6160 ATP points and evidently Medvedev will become World Number three. (Assuming that Medvedev wins all round-robin matches in London.)

Even if Medvedev drops a round-robin match in London, he will still be the World Number three tennis player.

8. Medvedev Being the Quarterfinalist at ATP 500, Paris Masters and wins just a match in London; Federer Becomes the Semifinalist in All The Three Events:

Under this scenario, Medvedev will have a summation of 6345 points and Federer will get 7030 points. Then the Swiss will conclude the year as World Number three. (Assuming that Federer wins all round-robin matches in London.)

If Federer drops a match in the round-robin match in London, it won’t affect his World Number three rankings.

*Apart from these cases there are other combinations for Federer to retain his World Number three position. However, Federer needs to earn 185 points more than Medvedev in the tournaments left to maintain his niche.