Fantasy Premier League 2019/2020 season is soon upon us. Millions of players are ready to build their teams, and everybody is looking for an edge over their friends and rivals. What if there is one and it is completely free to use? It’s called an FPL Fixture Tracker.
Traditional fixture trackers
A fixture tracker is not a new idea in FPL. They have been built for many years by FPL enthusiast. So, what is a fixture tracker anyway?
The idea is to build a matrix of future Premier League matches. You have all FPL teams in the rows and fixtures in the columns. Each fixture is represented by one column or box in the matrix. Then, these fixtures are rated by using different methods.
The idea to view, which teams have the easiest and the most difficult fixtures ahead. If a team is facing easy opponents, it’s a good source for attacking players. If the opponents are difficult, you should maybe skip players from that team until the fixtures become easier.
This is all fine, but such a fixture tracker has many flaws.
Problems in the traditional fixture tracker
The first issue of a traditional fixture tracker comes from the level of accuracy. It is simply not a tool precise enough if you are using a couple of different colour codes.
The second problem derives from that. If you are using simple colours to define the difficulty, there is no way to use the data further. You cannot add dark green and yellow together and get some outcome.
The competition has gone past colour codes many years ago. What you need now are numeric values. You must be able to make calculations yourself and get a precise value to the difficulty difference.
The third problem comes also from using colour codes. Each team is obviously individual, so a difficult game for Aston Villa is quite different from Manchester City. In practice, there are maybe three or four difficult matches for Manchester City all season.
Someone must obviously decide these colour codes too and figure out if Burnley’s away trip to Wolves has the same colour as Aston Villa’s away trip to Newcastle. Even if you’d be a math genius, the outcome won’t be usable in any meaningful way.
Traditional fixture tracker doesn’t count in the match totals either. There might be an identically easy or difficult game, but one of them is extremely low-scoring and one of them is extremely high-scoring. Even if the winning chances for your favourite team are the same, its expected goals might differ greatly.
Should you use bookmaker odds instead?
The best FPL players are smart people. This means that the best players have noticed the problems described above and found smarter and more accurate methods. A new trend has emerged in the past few years: using bookmaker odds.
The easiest way to use the bookmaker odds is simply to open the clean sheet market of the upcoming Premier League round. Look at the odds and see how the betting market makers have estimated the clean sheet chance for each team.
Next, you can look at the team totals market. What odds are given for each team to score a goal or to score multiple goals? Lower the odds, more goals the team is expected to score.
This sounds much better, right? Yes and no.
Now you have precise values made by the betting market makers, which means they are well formed and close to correct probabilities. You still have two major issues, though.
First, you don’t really get odds to further than one or maximum of two rounds. FPL is not a single-match fantasy football, but the idea is to see much further. You’d look at 4-5 rounds ahead at minimum. How are you going to do that with odds for the next weekend?
The second issue comes from the popularity of this method. If you take bookmaker odds, you are looking at the same values as everyone else. You might get an edge against a complete newbie, but there is no edge against smarter players.
The solution: FPL Fixture Tracker
If you want to solve the problems of the traditional fixture tracker and using the bookmaker odds, keep reading. The solution is FPL Fixture Tracker by AllFantasyTips. Let’s look at the traditional fixture tracker first.
AllFantasyTips tracker has also colour codes to give you a quick impression of the fixture difficulty, but it also has precise numeric values. You know exactly how good or bad a fixture is.
This tracker solves also the problem of each team being in individual and the game totals. Each team has a precise goal-scoring value for every match. If the match is very low-scoring, you see low goal expectancy and a higher-than-average clean sheet probability.
Separating clean sheet probabilities and expected goals being scored is a major upgrade against any traditional fixture tracker. Even if some match might be difficult in terms of winning probabilities, it might still offer good odds for keeping a clean sheet.
Next, we got the updating process. AllFantasyTips fixture tracker is updated automatically. Traditional fixture trackers are updated when someone remembers to change the colour codes, which is very rare. This means that most of the fixture trackers are outdated all the time.
How about comparing AllFantasyTips FPL Fixture Tracker to bookmaker odds? The big difference is that now you get odds to six gameweeks ahead.
The second advantage is that AllFantasyTips numbers are unique and built from data including thousands of Premier League football matches. They have many differences to bookmaker odds, which means you can get an edge against other competitors.
Try this ultimate FPL tool today and see for yourself: FPL Fixture Tracker by AllFantasyTips.