Amazing stats? Yes. Back-to-back NCAA Championships in 2023 and 2024? Yes. For Alex Karaban, the first two collegiate seasons couldn’t have been scripted any better. Yet, despite his success, Karaban pulled out of the 2025 NBA Draft and announced his return to UConn for his senior season. “I pride myself on accepting challenges and holding myself to the highest standard,” Karaban wrote on X. “Last year, we didn’t achieve what we set out to, and I am not running from a chance to make that right!” On the surface, it made sense. After all, the Huskies were the No. 3 seed in the Big East Conference with a 14-6 conference record, and were eliminated in the second round of the NCAA tournament. But is that the real reason behind this big move? Not entirely. Just ask national analyst Rob Dauster.

In a recent episode of The Field of 68: After Dark, Dauster unveiled what he believes to be the major reason behind Karaban’s decision. “And it is going to be something where, financially, this is the right decision to make. And not just because he is going to make more money this year than he would if he had put his name in the draft,” Dauster said. “He’s going to make more money in NIL from UConn than he would if he had gone to the draft from an NBA team.”

And honestly, he might be right.

While Karaban’s current NIL earnings haven’t been fully disclosed, there’s no denying he ranks among the top college basketball earners. As of 2024, On3 valued his NIL worth at approximately $1.2 million—a number that likely grew heading into 2025.

Why such a high valuation? Look at his endorsement track record.

Karaban’s NIL portfolio includes standout deals with Powerade—alongside Arizona’s Caleb Love and NC State’s Saniya Rivers, as well as partnerships with Dunkin’ (a brand with deep roots in the Northeast), JBL Audio, and the CT Scoreboard Podcast. He’s clearly built more than just a résumé on the court.

So, Dauster’s point holds weight, especially since this isn’t even the first time Karaban has opted out of the draft.

Last year as well, he withdrew from the 2024 NBA Draft in June. And guess what? He capitalized on his return by launching an “I’m back” apparel collection through the UConn NIL store. The merch included sweatshirts ($54.99), t-shirts ($39.99), and a limited run of 50 autographed jerseys priced at $199.99. Smart move, both emotionally and financially.

And to be honest, this NIL-first strategy isn’t unique to Karaban. It’s reshaping college basketball as we know it. Take Texas Tech forward JT Toppin, for instance—he’ll reportedly earn approximately $4 million in NIL compensation to stay with the Red Raiders this season.

Simply put, the days of the NBA’s familiar “one-and-done” rule are fading fast. For years, the average age of players entering the draft hovered around 21 or 22, but the landscape is evolving. Karaban, like many others, is making sure he cashes in on financial opportunities before committing to the league.

And guess what? It’s not just smart, it’s setting him up for a more secure future.

Alex Karaban’s strategic pause before the leap

In the NBA, average earnings for players entering the draft vary based on their draft position. First-round picks sign contracts according to the NBA’s rookie salary scale, which outlines guaranteed salaries for the first two years. These contracts typically range from 80% to 120% of the scale amount.

For example, the first overall pick had a first-year salary of approximately $12.57 million, whereas the 30th pick received roughly $2.49 million in their first season. Meanwhile, second-round picks—like Bronny James, who was selected 55th overall by the Lakers—do not receive guaranteed contracts.

This means Karaban could have earned slightly more or less than $2.49 million in his first year, based on where he landed. That estimate comes from the fact that, prior to his decision, various mock drafts projected him as a late first-round to early second-round pick. For instance, ESPN placed him at 29th overall, while Tankathon projected him at 37th.

It also positions him to enter next year’s draft as a more polished player—one NBA team may be more willing to offer a guaranteed deal. So, the big question now is: Will he seize that opportunity?