The Golden State Warriors have entered the second half of the offseason as the league’s quietest contender, though not by choice. While most teams have completed some level of retooling, the Warriors are stuck in limbo. Except for the buzz surrounding Jonathan Kuminga, who, for better or worse, has become the keystone of the entire offseason.

Golden State’s roster remains frozen because the franchise has yet to resolve Kuminga’s restricted free agency. Whether he returns on a multi-year deal or departs via sign-and-trade, his situation holds the keys to everything else. Notably, that includes the Warriors’ pursuit of veteran big man Al Horford and gritty guard De’Anthony Melton, two players who seemed all but set to join the Dubs just weeks ago.

Veteran NBA reporter Tim Kawakami explained that the Golden State Warriors are currently unable to move forward with Al Horford and De’Anthony Melton because of the unresolved status of Jonathan Kuminga’s contract situation. According to Kawakami, if the Warriors use their taxpayer midlevel exception to sign Horford right now, it would automatically trigger a “hard cap” at the second apron level under the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement. Restricting the team in what it could do financially for the rest of the season, making it difficult to add players or make trades. “GSWs want to avoid that until they know what the Kuminga number is,” Kawakami wrote on X.

The team doesn’t yet know whether Kuminga will stay or be traded, so they can’t risk committing to Horford or Melton. If Kuminga is moved in a sign-and-trade deal, Golden State could receive multiple players back, further complicating the financial picture and roster space. Kawakami added, “So a Kuminga resolution has to come first, if possible. That sets the framework for the other moves.” Only after that will the Warriors have a clear picture of their cap space and roster flexibility, allowing them to execute the Horford and Melton signings.

The Warriors want Horford at the full taxpayer midlevel $5.7 million and Melton likely at the vet minimum. But even small money deals can throw a contender deep into the luxury tax if not sequenced properly. There are also whispers that the deals for Horford and Melton might already be in place verbally. Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints added fuel to the fire, posting: “Jonathan Kuminga’s situation is holding these deals up.”

Until Kuminga makes a decision, either accepting the Warriors’ 3-year, $60–75 million offer, or taking a one-year $7.9M qualifying offer, the team can’t fully commit to other moves. If he’s traded, multiple contracts might return, complicating cap sheet math. If he stays, his salary dictates whether the Dubs trigger the second apron, a scenario they’d like to avoid unless absolutely necessary. Meanwhile, the Warriors are quietly setting up a contingency roster with Trayce Jackson-Davis, Quinten Post, and Gui Santos as placeholders.

Rumors swirl around DeRozan’s future

While Jonathan Kuminga may not be headed back to the Bay at all,  he may be part of a chain reaction that starts in Sacramento and ends with a 6-time All-Star changing teams. According to Allen Stiles of Sactown Sports 1140, there may be a handshake agreement in place between the Sacramento Kings and DeMar DeRozan. “I believe that there is a handshake agreement between DeMar DeRozan and the Sacramento Kings. That is my belief,” Stiles noted. “If Jonathan Kuminga is acquired by the Sacramento Kings, the Sacramento Kings will get their butts in gear as far as getting DeMar DeRozan to another team.”

This development adds a significant twist to the offseason narrative. If the Sacramento Kings successfully acquire Jonathan Kuminga, who reportedly had a positive meeting with Kings GM Scott Perry and coach Doug Christie, they’re expected to quickly pivot toward trading DeMar DeRozan. According to insider Allen Stiles, the Kings may already have a quiet understanding with DeRozan: if they land Kuminga, they’ll facilitate a move to a contender. That move could involve Miami offering Terry Rozier and two second-round picks in return. While Rozier isn’t on DeRozan’s level talent-wise, this would be seen as a salary dump for Sacramento. DeRozan would get a shot at competing for a title, and the Kings would clear space while gaining future flexibility.

It’s the kind of domino effect that could reshape three teams at once: Kuminga to Sacramento, DeRozan to Miami. And the Warriors can finally clear the path to sign Horford and Melton, or whoever is left on the market by then. The Warriors are walking a tightrope, trying to stay under the second apron, retain trade flexibility, and position themselves for a superstar pursuit. 

But the longer this drags out, the greater the chance that targets like Horford and Melton sign elsewhere. And if Kuminga walks without a strong return, the ripple effects could set the Golden State Warriors back further. The next move isn’t just about filling roster holes, it’s about shaping the future of the franchise. And it all starts with Kuminga.