Last Sunday in Arthur Ashe Stadium, Carlos Alcaraz’s crisp returns troubled Jannik Sinner from the get-go. The Italian, though, had much more to lose. After his Cincinnati Open retirement, Alcaraz was much closer to taking Sinner’s world No. 1 spot. Not to mention the increasing win streak, where the Spaniard leads 10-5. Despite giving it his all, the two-hour and 42-minute battle ended in a 6-2, 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 for Sinner to break his 65-week streak at the top. After the game, though, Jannik Sinner analyzed, “I was very predictable today. On court, in the way he did many things, he changed up the game. That’s also his style of how he plays. Now it’s going to be on me if I want to make changes or not, you know? Definitely we are going to work on that.”

Alcaraz, however, denied that to be the case. He simply responded, “I don’t think he’s predictable, but we just know each other better and better.” Still, to debunk this thought, or potentially add more weight to it, Tennis Insights took the initiative to break down what really happened every time the New Two took the court against each other in the last 52 weeks. On X, the account shared, “He tops the leaderboard for our Core Shots metric.”

Shot variation is a stat that measures how much a player mixes up their shots, balancing core topspin groundstrokes with slices, drop shots, angles, and net plays. The higher the shot variation of a player, the more his opponents are left to guess. Over the last 52 weeks, Sinner focused heavily on this area. According to their study, he hit 88.3% core shots. However, where things fell apart were his forehand cross-court shots.

On average, he kept 80.6% of his forehand cross-court shots in and won 48% of the time. But against Alcaraz, those numbers dipped. He succeeded with 75.4% forehand cross-court shots but only converted on 40.6% of the time, revealing the challenges he faced against the Spanish star’s disruptive game on a turf he is known for.

Sinner had been nearly untouchable on hard courts, entering the U.S. Open final on a 27-match major unbeaten streak on the surface. But the Spaniard flipped that script, beating him four straight times. Wondering why? Jannik Sinner’s game has relied on blasting opponents off the baseline, a weapon that claimed him his first Wimbledon crown over Alcaraz in July.

At the US Open, though, Alcaraz simply outplayed him. He landed 42 winners to Jannik’s 21 in their intense two-hour, 42-minute battle, showcasing sharp precision and power that made the difference. Still, while Sinner thought he was predictable, Alcaraz clearly had a different view of the match!

A day after Sinner called himself “predictable,” Carlos Alcaraz stepped up with his take from across the net. “I wouldn’t say that (Sinner is predictable). Like him, I watch and study a lot of his games. I love the way he plays, and what he does is incredible. I don’t think he’s predictable, but we just know each other better and better, because we’ve already faced each other a few times [15 in total, with a 10-5 win]. I know his abilities, and I try to adapt to be able to face him,” Alcaraz told El Pais.

Though Sinner couldn’t defend his U.S. Open crown and dropped to World No. 2 on Monday, he’s proud of his 2025 haul. Winning the Australian Open and Wimbledon, and making finals at Roland Garros and the US Open, he’s just the fourth man in the Open Era to reach all four Grand Slam finals in a season. He’s now 2,590 points behind Alcaraz in the PIF ATP Live Race To Turin but will push hard in the home stretch for the ATP Year-End No. 1 battle.

Earlier, Jannik Sinner vowed change: “I’m going to aim to maybe even lose some matches from now on, but trying to do some changes trying to be a bit more unpredictable,” he said. “Because I think that’s what I have to do, trying to become a better player.” The last eight Grand Slams have been split between Sinner and Alcaraz, making them just the second men’s pair to dominate every major title in successive years, after Nadal and Federer in 2006 and 2007. Alcaraz leads their rivalry 10-5, with Sinner’s only recent win at Wimbledon.

But the 2025 season isn’t done yet. Next up: the Asian swing. Will Jannik Sinner return with renewed energy and an unpredictable strategy to topple Alcaraz? Share your thoughts below!