“Throw me to the Wolves and I will return leading the pack“—perhaps both Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will be saying this at the moment. On one side, despite having already clinched two titles this season, there were a few question marks raised on Alcaraz’s consistency levels recently. Amid all these, he had to withdraw from the Madrid Open due to an injury. Then, on the other side, Sinner entered the 2025 Italian Open after serving a three-month suspension due to the doping incident. So, adversities were plenty for these two, but now, after securing their spots in the finals, they’ve again made sure that this was always a two-horse chariot race! Speaking about his rivalry with the Spaniard, Sinner had previously admitted, “We try to push ourselves to the limit. I wake up in the morning, trying to understand the ways to beat him.” Recently, even Alcaraz welcomed Sinner’s return to the Tour, saying that he “needs” him to “push him” for further improvement. Both these players have a lot at stake in this match, and that brings us to the looming question—Who will win this epic final?

Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz: Preview

Champions don’t fade, they fight! Jannik Sinner has proved it yet again. He started from where he left off in Melbourne. Having already clinched a major title earlier this season, Sinner started his campaign at his home tournament by defeating Argentina’s Mariano Navone by 6-3,6-4. He didn’t drop a set until the SF clash against America’s Tommy Paul. His first reaction after the SF match was, “That was a straight punch to my face,” (on losing the first set by 1-6).

After showcasing a clear dominance in his 6-0,6-1 victory against Casper Ruud (7) in the QF, the crowd in Campo Centrale expected a similar outcome in his next match as well. But Paul had other ideas! He took a 5-0 lead in the first set before Sinner managed to hold his serve, avoiding a bagel. “I just tried to stay there mentally. I stayed there in the first set, and winning this one game was very, very important,” confessed the Italian having finished on a winning note (1-6,6-0,6-3). “Ole, Ole, Ole, Sinner!” echoed through the stands after this epic comeback!

On the other side, the four-time Grand Slam champion Carlos Alcaraz fought past Lorenzo Musetti in just over two hours to secure his spot in the fourth final of the season. He defeated the Italian by 6-3,7-6(4) and guess what? Almost a month ago, he had defeated the same rival to clinch his Monte Carlo Masters title! After this match, Alcaraz said, “Today was a really difficult day with the conditions, the wind was tough to play with. It wasn’t about playing brilliant, spectacular tennis. It was about playing smart tennis, playing solid, going to the point when you can, and waiting for the chance to play aggressively.“

Although there was huge support for their local lad, Alcaraz claimed the “atmosphere was great.” Is he ready to embrace a greater atmosphere against Italy’s favorite son? Let’s check out some of the records that they have made recently.

Interesting Facts: Since 1973, Carlos Alcaraz now trails only three players for winning percentage (65%) against ATP Top 10 opponents. Not only that, since the format’s introduction in 1990, Alcaraz (26.7%, 8/30) is now one of four to make their way to the final from 25+% of ATP Masters 1000 main draws entered. The other three? Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, and Rafael Nadal. Talk about elite company! He has now also surpassed his coach, Juan Carlos Ferrero, as the second-youngest player to reach the final at three ATP Masters 1000 events on clay, older than only Rafael Nadal. Alcaraz has now also tied with Stefan Edberg for the second most wins in a player’s first 100 Masters 1000 matches. What about Sinner?

Well, Jannik Sinner is now the first player to make the final in seven back-to-back-back tournament appearances (between Cincinnati 2024 and Italian Open 2025) since Andy Murray (2016). What makes this feat even more impressive is that he is the youngest since Ivan Lendl in 1982 to do so. In fact, this is the fourth time an Italian player has reached the men’s singles final at the Italian Open in history ( first after 1978). Sinner is also the second player in the Open Era to win a set with a 6-0 margin in both QF and SF at the Italian Open since Aaron Krickstein in 1984. 

They love breaking records, don’t they? But who has the edge in their H2H stat?

Sinner vs Alcaraz: Head-to-Head

Just like Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner will compete in his 25th tour-level final on Super Sunday. He will also be chasing his fifth ATP Masters 1000 title and first on clay. According to the Italian, it’s quite “beneficial” for him to play against Alcaraz before Roland Garros and Wimbledon. But before they set things rolling at the Roman amphitheater at the Campo Centrale, let’s find out who has the edge in the H2H record! Well, as of now, Alcaraz has a 7-4 lead over Sinner in their H2H stat.

• 2024 Beijing Final: Alcaraz 6(6)-7,6-4,7-6(3).
• 2024 Roland Garros SF: Alcaraz 2-6,6-3,3-6,6-4,6-3.
• 2024 ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells SF: Alcaraz 1-6,6-3,6-2.
• 2023 Beijing SF: Sinner 7-6(4),6-1.
• 2023 ATP Masters 1000 Miami SF: Sinner 6(4)-7,6-4,6-2.
• 2023 ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells SF: Alcaraz 7-6(4),6-3.
• 2022 US Open QF: Alcaraz 6-3,6(7)-7,6(0)-7,7-5,6-3.
• 2022 Umag Final: Sinner 6(5)-7,6-1,6-1.
• 2022 Wimbledon R16: Sinner 6-1,6-4,6(8)-7,6-3.
• 2021 ATP Masters 1000 Paris R32: Alcaraz 7-6(1),7-5.
• 2019 Alicante R64: Alcaraz 6-2,3-6,6-3.

Prediction: Alcaraz will win this match by three sets

Defying all odds! We’ve seen how vocal the Italian crowd has been when it comes to cheering their local lads in this tournament. So, without a doubt, it’d be a cauldron of high pressure for the Spaniard. But we must remember, this 22-year-old lad from Murcia is a four-time Grand Slam champion. In fact, he’s also the defending champion at the French Open this year. On the other hand, all three of Sinner’s Grand Slam titles have been on the hard courts. So, looking at the surface here, the Spaniard is slightly ahead. 

Sinner will be keen to feed off the electrifying atmosphere and get closer to becoming just the second Italian men’s singles champion in Rome after Adriano Panatta (1976). Both these players are keen to put up their A-game in this match, but if we look at the numbers, Sinner has a win-loss record of 12-0 this season, whereas it’s 29-6 for Alcaraz!

Carlos Alcaraz wasn’t at his best against Musetti, and even Sinner looked a bit erratic at times against Paul. If we take a look at their playing styles, Jannik Sinner (1) is a highly aggressive baseliner who excels at controlling rallies and dictating the pace of the match with his powerful groundstrokes. He’s known for his clean hitting, good movement, and ability to understand where his opponent is likely to play the ball. Sinner likes to take the ball on and strike it aggressively, as he is able to make massive cuts at the ball using his long levers. His spin-based hitting and neutral ball make it a bit difficult for his opponents to gain court positions.

Conversely, Alcaraz (3) is known for his aggressive, high-octane playing style characterized by a powerful forehand, strong defense, and nimble footwork. He’s a versatile player who excels literally on almost all surfaces. His ability to adapt and thrive on various surfaces is truly exceptional! His spin-heavy groundstrokes, particularly on the forehand, and a versatile drop shot are two of his lethal weapons. He loves building points with his forehand, using it to attack an opponent’s backhand and then pounce on any subpar shot he can get. So, considering all these factors, I feel Carlitos may get the better of the Italian on this surface!