When Jannik Sinner raised the Australian Open trophy back in January, fans expected the world number one to ride that momentum into a dominant 2025 season. Three weeks later, news broke that the Italian had accepted a three-month doping ban after failing two tests in March. Now, with his suspension officially over as of midnight on Sunday, the 23-year-old is set to return to action this week at the Italian Open. It’s his home tournament, but Sinner is stepping into Rome with cautious optimism.

After a long wait, the atmosphere in the capital is buzzing. Yet Sinner has never gone past the quarter-finals at the ATP Masters 1000 event in Rome. And according to WADA rules, he wasn’t even allowed to train at any official venue or hit with other professional players until one month before the end of his ban. That meant limited practice time and a serious change of pace for someone used to the tour’s rhythm.

Still, the World No.1 didn’t let the time go to waste. His physical trainer, Marco Panichi, called the break a “blessing in disguise.” Instead of stressing over tennis, the young star explored different parts of life. Skiing, visiting fashion shows, and wandering through museums helped him “rediscover himself.” It wasn’t the kind of reset anyone planned, but it turned into something meaningful.

Once April 13th hit, the countdown was on. Sinner was finally allowed to resume official training. Since then, he’s been spotted getting back into form with practice partners like Jack Draper, Matteo Berrettini, and Holger Rune. Slowly but surely, he began dialing in his game. Even with his return in sight, Sinner is managing his expectations. On press day at the Italian Open, he told reporters, “It was for me good news there no Grand Slams were included in the ban, but at the beginning I didn’t want to reach the agreement with WADA because I knew what happened. Now everything is over and I’m happy about it. I have low expectations for this tournament, I want to see where my level is.” 

The Rome crowd has waited a long time to see Jannik Sinner again. He missed last year’s tournament due to a hip injury, making this his first appearance at the Foro Italico in two years. So when he crossed the bridge on his way to Monday’s press conference, fans greeted him with loud, passionate cheers. The capital is ready. But the path ahead isn’t easy.

Jannik Sinner’s rocky road to the Italian Open

Despite his time away, Jannik Sinner still holds on to the top spot in the PIF ATP Rankings. His 21-match winning streak at tour level also remains intact. As the top seed in Rome, he has a first-round bye and will kick off his campaign against either Mariano Navone or Federico Cina.

That’s just the beginning. In round three, he’s projected to face 25th seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. After that, things ramp up with a potential fourth-round clash against 15th seed Frances Tiafoe or 17th seed Francisco Cerundolo. It’s a draw that doesn’t ease up. If Sinner reaches the quarter-finals, he’ll likely have to face sixth seed Casper Ruud, fresh off his title run in Madrid. Then, the semi-final might bring a showdown with fourth seed Taylor Fritz. While Sinner leads their head-to-head 4-1, Fritz is getting more dangerous on clay and reached the Rome quarter-finals last year.

And if Sinner makes it all the way to the final? Get ready. Carlos Alcaraz could be waiting on the other side, in what would be a mouthwatering match-up. There’s also a chance of a rematch with Alexander Zverev, who lost to Sinner in the Australian Open final earlier this year. Or, the final could feature a new name—Jack Draper, the British lefty who’s now ranked world number five after finishing runner-up in Madrid. That’s not all. Italy could even dream of an all-Italian final, with Lorenzo Musetti, now world number nine, also in strong form.

Looking beyond Rome, the Italian will next compete at the Hamburg Open before heading to Roland-Garros. He reached the semi-final at the French Open last year, and with Grand Slam points still on offer, that’s where the real test begins. Can Jannik Sinner rise above his own expectations?