Taylor Fritz’s victory over Carlos Alcaraz in the Laver Cup certainly attracted a few eyeballs. Fritz toppled the six-time Grand Slam winner in straight sets, becoming only the third American to defeat a World No. 1 at a team event. Yet, the numbers still weigh heavily on him, refusing to fade quietly. Despite his recent heroics, Fritz’s overall stats are not what he desires, as Carlos Alcaraz continues to overshadow him even after his Laver Cup win. But now, he looks locked in, ready to face whatever challenge the tennis gods put on him.

Yesterday, in an exclusive with Olympics.com, Fritz opened up about his evolving belief in himself. “I think for a while now I felt capable of it if the right things click and I play well,” he admitted during a conversation at Tokyo’s Ariake Colosseum. The confidence was evident as he secured a come-from-behind 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(3) first-round win over Canada’s Gabriel Diallo on Thursday (September 25). Reflecting on his momentum, Fritz flipped the pages to last week.

“Being able to beat Carlos and Sasha in back-to-back matches, obviously it’s not at a Grand Slam but I think that just does a lot for my belief that I can also do it in a big tournament,” the 27-year-old explained. Then he made a bold declaration about his mental approach: “I’m someone who always said that if I feel like once I do something once, for me just mentally it feels much easier to repeat it and do it again.” For Fritz, it wasn’t just about one victory – it was about setting a precedent in his mind that success at the highest level is achievable.

He acknowledged that the pressure felt no less intense, while his latest wins didn’t come on the biggest stages. “And yes, it’s not like we just played in the finals of a Masters or a Slam but even so, I felt a lot of nerves and pressure throughout the match and to me it felt like a big match. I think doing that, it does give me the belief that at another time, I will be able to do it.”

Trailing 3-1 in the H2H record against Alcaraz, tennis challenges don’t come close to this for Fritz. The message was clear: for Taylor Fritz, these more miniature stages carried the weight of proving grounds. It’s building belief so he can replicate such performances when the stakes are even higher. As a result, it seems Taylor Fritz can genuinely pull it off. Why, you ask?

After the Diallo match, Fritz also broke down the strategy that gave him the edge over Carlos Alcaraz. “Three times I have played Carlos, he has broken me every single time. So that’s not how you want to start against someone like him. So, getting out of that first game was huge and then just playing a lot of big points with conviction.” Here, he underlined how small shifts in execution (like holding serve early) significantly impacted his ability to stay composed and take control of the match.

That clarity translated into his mindset on court. “I didn’t second-guess myself, I didn’t play too safe, I played with no fear on a lot of the big points,” Fritz added, framing the win as a turning point in his approach. It was not just about skill, but about courage under pressure. But even that might not be enough to topple names like Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic, unless Fritz alters one more thing about himself, according to Simon Rea.

Taylor Fritz unlocks the formula for victory

On the latest Australian Open TV podcast episode, Tennis Australia’s data expert Simon Rea broke down Taylor Fritz’s strengths and weaknesses. While he praised Fritz’s recent efforts to play a more aggressive brand of tennis, he cautioned that relying too much on a safe, consistent style, something Fritz once joked about as being a “bot that pushes,” hasn’t come to fruition against the sport’s elite.

Honestly speaking, the numbers back that up. Against Alcaraz, Taylor Fritz trails 1-3. Sinner, it’s 1-4, with three straight-set defeats in their last meetings. Likewise, the 27-year-old American is yet to earn a single win against Djokovic, standing 0-11. That’s precisely why Rea believes the common thread lies in one key weakness: Taylor Fritz’s second serve. “I think he’s caught a little bit between on his second serve. So all of those players are able to impact on his second serve,” he explained.

Even when Fritz’s second serve reaches speeds of 165 km/h, its predictability makes him vulnerable. “They get an opportunity on the second serve, where he comes unstuck against them. He’s very predictable generally with his location,” Rea noted. That means top players like Alcaraz, Sinner, and Djokovic can anticipate and immediately seize control of rallies.

Rea continued, “If they have a read on your serve and you become predictable, they will hurt you, and they will hurt you every time.” Can Taylor Fritz add enough variety and disguise to his second serve to level the playing field? Or will this remain the one weakness that keeps him shy of tennis’s top tier? What do you think?