ATP World Tour Finals 2019: How Can Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal Qualify for the Semifinals

Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal face an uphill task to qualify for the last four at the ongoing ATP World Tour Finals 2019 in London after disappointing defeats in their respective opening round-robin matches.

Six-time champion Roger Federer was defeated by Dominic Thiem in straight sets 7-5, 7-5 on Sunday. However, the 20-time Grand Slam champion can still qualify for the ATP World Tour Finals 2019 for the 16th time in his career.

Federer’s qualification scenarios for ATP Finals semifinals –

Scenario 1 – If Roger Federer wins both of his remaining round-robin matches against Matteo Berrettini and Novak Djokovic and Djokovic loses to Dominic Thiem, he will qualify for the semifinals.

However, if Novak Djokovic wins against Thiem, he will hope that the Austrian loses to Berrettini otherwise the second position will be determined between Thiem and Federer on the basis of the number of games won and lost in the three group matches.

Scenario 2 –  If Roger Federer losses against Berrettini, then he will have to win against the defending runner-up Novak Djokovic and hope the Serbian loses to Thiem, then the second position will be determined by the performance of the player. Otherwise, if Djokovic wins against Thiem, he will qualify for the semifinals along with the winner between Thiem and Berrettini – who will have two wins.

Scenario 3 – If Federer registers a win against Berrettini and loses against Djokovic, he will hope that Djokovic and Berrettini defeat Thiem as the qualification will go down to the player who has better games win percentage. However, if either of Djokovic or Berrettini fails to beat Thiem, he will qualify for the last four along with Novak Djokovic.

Rafael Nadal lost in straight sets 6-2, 6-4 to the defending champion Alexander Zverev in their first round-robin match on Monday.

Nadal’s qualification scenarios for ATP Finals semifinals – 

Scenario 1 – If Rafael Nadal wins both of his remaining round-robin matches against Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev and Tsitsipas loses to Zverev, he will qualify for the semifinals.

However, if Tsitsipas wins against Zverev, he will hope that the German loses to Medvedev otherwise the second position will be determined between Zverev and Nadal on the basis of the number of games won and lost in the three group matches.

Scenario 2 – If Rafael Nadal losses against Medvedev, then he will have to win against Stefanos Tsitsipas and hope the Greek loses to Zverev, then the second position will be determined by the performance of the player. Otherwise, if Tsitsipas wins against Zverev, he will qualify for the semifinals along with the winner between Zverev and Medvedev – who will have two wins.

Scenario 3 – If Nadal registers a win against Medvedev and loses against Tsitsipas, he will hope that Tsitsipas and Medvedev defeat Zverev as the qualification will go down to the player who has better games win percentage. However, if either of Tsitsipas or Medvedev fails to beat Zverev, he will qualify for the last four along with Tsitsipas.

While Roger Federer has failed to advance to the semi-finals at the Nitto ATP Finals just once in 16 previous appearances, Nadal ha never won a title at the year-ending championship.

Though it is theoretically possible to advance to the semi-finals of the event with two round-robin losses, no player in the history of the singles tournament has won the title after losing more than one round-robin match.