Back in the day, NASCAR races had a sense of unpredictability. Teams experimented with strategies, with some gambling on fuel mileage, while others implemented a two-tire stop to gain a competitive advantage. These weren’t just races, but chess matches, with the battle being fought on pit road as much as they were on the racetrack. Every driver had to decide how much they were willing to push their Goodyears in the early laps, but that element of surprise has faded.

Now, two-tire calls are rare, and fuel mileage strategies have nearly disappeared. Even tire falloff in long green-flag runs is hardly a thing anymore. It’s like the sport has lost an element that made it great once upon a time, as tires have now become a predictable aspect of races, coming at the expense of entertainment.

How Tires Used to Shape Races

Simply put, tire falloff has been a significant aspect of race strategy, and drivers who could manage it effectively had a big edge over their competitors. Jeff Gordon was known for his ability to stretch tire life without losing speed, allowing him to make late charges in the race. Even Tony Stewart made a name for himself by managing well on worn tires, outlasting rivals who dared to push too hard, too soon.

Back then, a crew chief could change the race by simply making a bold call. Two-tire stops could drastically alter track positions, and long stretches on worn tires weren’t out of the ordinary. While big teams like Hendrick Motorsports, Team Penske, and Joe Gibbs Racing dominate now, smaller teams could take a gamble with tire strategy to secure shocking race wins, especially when others play it safe. The sport was as much about strategy and skill as it was about speed, with tires making a big difference in the overall outcome.

What’s Changed in the Goodyear Era

NASCAR has evolved in a very different direction now. The sanctioning body and Goodyear have prioritized durability and cost control, with tires lasting longer and wearing out in more gradual, predictable patterns. And instead of experimenting with newer and different compounds, Goodyear has doubled down and standardized its designs, making only minor tweaks year after year.

That has taken away what made tire performance different from one track to the next. Pit cycles are more predictable than they’ve ever been, and crew chiefs have fewer opportunities to take gambles, those high-risk, high-return situations that NASCAR was known for once upon a time. Teams take fewer fuel mileage risks as well, making the sport repetitive and boring.

Greg Stucker, Goodyear’s director of racing, has admitted that it’s all about finding the right balance, saying, “We want wear and falloff, but maybe just not to that level” (referring to the Bristol race in 2024). Such quotes reflect just how conservative an approach NASCAR has been adopting in the Goodyear era, where they want tires to wear out enough to force pit stops, but not so much that tire failure becomes a real issue in races.

But it seems to be a case of extremes, and even Denny Hamlin couldn’t help but feel that the tire wear at Bristol Motor Speedway earlier this year was “a little too much“. Sharing his thoughts on the Actions Detrimental podcast, the Joe Gibbs Racing veteran said, ” You want it to wear out, and it did, I’m very grateful that they found what to put in a tire to wear it out, now put that at many other racetracks if you could, if you don’t mind.” 

He went on to say, “There’s such disparity with our tires to where if they do wear, it’s all right-side and there’s nothing on the lefts. You’re not just relying on the right sides alone to carry the car around the corner. So, just transferring some of that grip or load into the left sides I think would be a good change. But overall, they delivered on what we wanted, which is more tire wear.”

The Ripple Effect on Racing

Naturally, Goodyear’s ‘conservative’ approach has had a ripple effect on the grid. Pit stops happen in predictable schedules, which makes race strategy predictable and boring for fans. With tires wearing out slowly, there’s less incentive for drivers to prioritize tire management, and they’re more willing to push the pedal to the metal as the degradation won’t punish them like it used to back in the day. Crew chiefs were once celebrated for making gutsy strategy calls, but they have less influence on their racers’ outcomes now.

Even the green-flag runs were full of drama, with teams adopting completely different strategies, but still clashing on track. That’s not the case anymore, with more or less every racing side running the same strategy. That’s why there are fewer surprise winners now, and mid-tier teams can rarely outthink the heavyweights, while the fastest cars generally dominate. Sure, the races are close, but that’s because the Next-Gen cars use a single source supplier, but on-track battles are now more about execution and track position, and less about strategy and creative solutions.

The Fan Experience

For long-term fans, the modern NASCAR landscape is completely different from what made them fall in love with the sport back in the day. Stock car racing enthusiasts would tune in every Sunday to enjoy the thrill of seeing upsets, speculating on which teams would switch two tires instead of four, and who would manage to save their fuel to outlast their rivals. That has changed, as races generally follow the same script, and when the pit window opens, all the leaders come in together, replace four tires, and the order is reset.

However, there are still late-race cautions and restarts that bring the crowd to their feet. At Kansas Speedway, Alan Gustafson went against the norm and allowed all four tires of Chase Elliott’s No. 9 Chevy to be replaced late in the race. The decision paid off, as the Hendrick Motorsports driver made a late charge and managed to snatch a victory from right under Denny Hamlin’s nose. But that’s a rarity these days.

Is There a Fix?

NASCAR has already identified the problems with tire strategy and has been working towards injecting a sense of unpredictability. At Phoenix Raceway earlier this year, the sanctioning body tested an option tire that provided more grip but wore out faster. The experiment worked, and the compound can add a layer of complexity to race strategy going forward. The Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway also caused major tire wear, forcing drivers to adapt on the fly, and brought back some old-fashioned tire management drama.

However, not everyone enjoyed the excessive wear. After the race, Ryan Blaney said, “They’ve done a good job so far of getting softer and softer at other places, and it’s worked. Here’s just a little bit of a different animal that they got to keep working with. So, hopefully we get a little bit of a kind of an in-between.”

Fans want to see more NASCAR urge Goodyear to experiment with more aggressive tire compounds, even if they’re only available on select tracks. They’ll give crew chiefs a bigger role in the race’s outcome, and limiting those sets will force teams to come up with creative race strategies than the default four tires at every pit stop. Ultimately, Goodyear needs to be given more freedom to develop track-specific packages, which will not just make races exciting but highlight what made every venue unique in the first place.

According to Jeff Burton, the Bristol experiment was a step in the right direction. Sharing his thoughts, ‘The Mayor’ said, “I’m good with it, though, because when you’re trying to get to the edge of the cliff and operate on it, you’re going to fall over it every now and then. I’m proud as hell of Goodyear for having the courage to say, you know what, if we have this problem (tire falloff), it’s okay. Because if we never, if we commit to never having a problem, then we’re going to have no tire fall off, right?”

Conclusion – Durability Over Drama?

NASCAR’s decision to push for durable, reliable tires has clear benefits. It’s safer for drivers, as blowouts are less common at high speeds, and the costs are easier to manage. Teams can also count on those compounds to perform consistently, adding a feeling of stability in the sport. But there is also a significant tradeoff. When the tires don’t create uncertainty, the sport shifts from strategy towards pure speed, making it too predictable as the big teams continue to dominate.

Sure, fans want safe racing, but they also want the thrill of upsets, late twists, and plenty of drama. They want to see crew chiefs making bold calls, and unknown entities entering Victory Lane after outthinking the heavyweights. NASCAR doesn’t need chaos, but it does need to accept that certain risks will need to be taken if it wants to recapture what made the sport great back in the day. Until then, the races will remain largely predictable, and the viewership numbers will keep sliding week after week.