The New York Yankees are on the ropes, and it’s not just because they are losing. After the Toronto Blue Jays crushed them in the first two games of the ALDS, the Yankees are staring at an embarrassing playoff exit. The scores of 10-1 and 13-7 are ugly, but they don’t tell the whole story. The other half is a philosophical flaw in how the Yankees are built to win baseball games.

The Yankees led all of baseball in home runs, with a total of 274, and runs scored, with 849, and an average of 5.19 runs per game. But their lineup is designed for an “all or nothing” approach that racks up runs in bunches. A deeper dive into their performance reveals a power-based success and punishing fastballs—posting a collective slugging percentage of .452. But beneath this, a critical weakness lies.

The Yankees were not an elite team in baseball at hitting with runners in scoring position, as they have an average of 3.77 runners left in scoring position per contest, the second-worst mark in all of baseball. And we’ve seen this over and over when they fall in a crucial situation, just like the sixth innings play against the Jays in the ALDS Game 1, when they had all the bases loaded and no out, but couldn’t collect more than one run.

The problem looks more glaring when looking at the Blue Jays, who are building something entirely different.

Toronto’s new hitting coach, David Popkins, came to the team with a clear mission: Build the most creative lineup at scoring runs in baseball. “My philosophy is built off of creativity,” Popkins shared. “We’re trying to become the most creative lineup at scoring runs in baseball. We do that by practicing all of the different situations and clubs that we’re going to need in the game.”

Popkin’s philosophy is built on a simple metaphor.

He teaches his hitters to think of their bat as a bag of clubs. In some situations, he explains, calls for a “pitching wedge,” where a player focuses on making contact to advance a runner. In others, he wants his hitters to shoot a line drive.

And at the end, it’s all about knowing which tool to use for the job because “if you try to do everything, you’re not going to do anything. When you get in those spots, they probably felt that they didn’t want to chase, didn’t want to make a mistake. If you’re afraid to make a mistake, you lose that attack. If you’re not attacking, you’re getting attacked in this game. It’s about reminding guys that they’re dangerous.”

This approach has transformed the Blue Jays. They became one of the best teams in baseball at hitting with runners in scoring position, with a .292 average. And now, the ALDS has already proved Toronto can beat the Yankees in multiple ways.

They can beat with power as they did with five home runs in Game 2. Or they can wear them down with a relentless 14 hits, as they did in Game 1. So, if the Aaron Judge and Co. want to stay afloat, they have to come off with something more than what they did all over the season.

Can the Yankees turn the tide?

The Yankees are down, not out. And despite the disastrous start, they hold some narrow advantage in the starting pitching matchups.

Carlos Rodón will take the mound for the crucial Game 3 at home, who finished the regular season with an 18-9 record and piling up 203 strikeouts. And Yankees will face Shane Bieber, who is still working his way back from major elbow surgery.

If the Yankees can force a Game 4, their advantage grows even larger because they would likely start rookie sensation Cam Schlittler.

On the other hand, the Blue Jays will be forced into a “bullpen game” as the injuries of Chris Bassitt and José Berríos trimmed their rotation, which heavily favors New York’s powerful lineup. Plus, the absence of All-Star shortstop Bo Bichette can cause them major pain down the stretch.

And the series now moves to Yankee Stadium, where the Pinstripes have a strong 50-31 record and have had their edge against the Jays, winning 4 out of the 6 games they played.

But no one should underestimate the difficulty of the task ahead, as the data shows the teams that take a 2-0 lead in a best-of-five series go on to win a staggering 88.9% of the time. Yet the Yankees can also draw motivation from their own history when they faced a similar situation and came back spectacularly during their division series against the Guardians in 2017.

So, the odds are long, but manager Aaron Boone believes his team has what it takes to achieve that. “Obviously, it feels like the world’s caving in around you,” Boone mentioned after the Game 2 loss. “But all of a sudden you go out there and win a ballgame on Tuesday, the needle can change.”

Will the needle change, though? We will know in only a few hours…