“…he would scratch Toronto’s apparent itch for a Japanese star. It rather infamously courted Shohei Ohtani two winters ago, and it was in on Roki Sasaki last winter,” wrote Zachary D. Rymer of Bleacher Report. Now, the Blue Jays are banking on the Saitama Seibu Lions’ posting of their star pitcher Tatsuya Imai.

Imai’s posting comes at a key time for Toronto, putting the Blue Jays in the lead in what analysts think will be a very competitive bidding war. Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors says the 27-year-old Japanese star is expected to get a deal worth about 6 years and $150 million. With that, there may also be a posting fee to his NPB club.

Jim Riley pointed out that the Blue Jays have all the parts they need to get the pitcher. “Money check. Desirable location. They were just in the World Series. Check. You’re all going to say that I am being biased by making the Blue Jays an S-tier team, but they’re an S-tier team.”

Riley’s assessment carries weight given Imai’s profile and the competitive landscape. The analyst noted that successful acquisitions require teams to satisfy multiple criteria simultaneously.

“One of them is you have to be able to take on the years and take on the dollars,” Riley explained, pointing out that ESPN thinks Imai’s market value is six years and an average annual value of $22.5 million. Riley continued, “You also have to be able to stand tall if a bidding war breaks out, and maybe go over this, add another year, add five more million bucks a year. And we have to be an appealing destination.”

Toronto meets all of these requirements. And their recent World Series run shows the org’s stability and market appeal. International free agents consider these factors when choosing where to live.

Imai’s credentials also justify the substantial investment.

The three-time NPB All-Star delivered a dominant 2024 season, posting a 1.92 ERA over 24 starts and 163⅔ innings pitched. Notably, his ERA has not exceeded 3.00 since 2021, demonstrating remarkable consistency at the highest levels of professional baseball. His pitching profile is firm, with a mid-90s fastball that can reach 99 miles per hour, a sharp slider, a changeup, a splitter, and a sinker.

Toronto Blue Jays‘ Imai pursuit is urgent because they have been disappointed in the World Series. The Dodgers’ purchase of Ohtani and Sasaki made LA even stronger. Back then, Toronto failed to compete at the highest levels of strategy and money.

Meanwhile, even Imai himself expressed commitment to this mission, stating via MLB.com that “every season, I have played with the goal of winning the league championship and the Japan Series, and that ambition will not change with a new team.”

Now, bringing in Imai to an already skilled rotation, including Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, and Max Scherzer, will only strengthen the arms.

Imai has other suitors apart from the Blue Jays

Beyond Toronto, several franchises possess the competitive standing and financial capacity to pursue the Japanese ace. Yet, financial realities and roster needs create vastly different scenarios for each potential suitor, teams as the Padres, clubs, and Yankees.

The Padres really need pitchers. Dylan Cease and Michael King are going to free agency, Yu Darvish is having elbow surgery, and Musgrove is recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Imai wants to go to Petco Park because it has a lot of space for pitchers, and San Diego is a nice place to live. What is the issue? The Padres are having trouble with their budget, so signing Imai is almost impossible without cutting their current payroll. The rotation crisis in San Diego won’t be solved until they make a lot of money.

The Cubs show a completely different calculation. Last season, their starting rotation only gave them 7.0 rWAR, which was the worst of any playoff team. They turned down Shota Imanaga’s option, which gives them about $50 million to spend however they want. They see Imai as a chance to get elite-level performance from a proven talent. Chicago can handle the financial commitment without having to deal with luxury tax issues, unlike San Diego. The Cubs’ pitching changes could change the time frame for when they can compete right away.

The Yankees have been looking for Imai and really want to get back into the Japanese market after Los Angeles took over. Cole, Rodón, and Schmidt are all back from elbow surgery, but Gil is still dealing with shoulder problems. The depth of the rotation is still up in the air. Imai fills that gap perfectly. But New York’s lineup holes and bullpen problems will eat up available spending power faster than expected, leaving very little money for premium starter investments. When you look at these other scenarios, it’s clear that Toronto has a bigger competitive edge.