The road to contention wasn’t exactly smooth for the St. Louis Cardinals. They stumbled early, finishing April with a 14-17 record. Things looked especially rough on the road, where they dropped 12 of their first 14 games. The bullpen? A mess—posting a shaky 5.11 ERA. But then May rolled around, and everything flipped. The Redbirds went on a nine-game tear and wrapped up the month at 19-9, completely changing the course of their season.

So what sparked the turnaround? A retooled bullpen and a shift in mindset. From April 25 on, the bullpen locked in with a stellar 2.92 ERA, finally giving the team the late-game reliability they’d been missing. And the Cardinals started to show some serious fight, racking up 19 come-from-behind wins. That grit and grind? It’s become their signature. This team isn’t flying under the radar anymore—they’re officially a threat.

The stakes are getting higher with each passing game. As analyst Katie Woo notes, the upcoming schedule is critical.” It’s definitely important. This NL Central. It’s no joke,” she stated, highlighting the fierce competition. “Just two and a half games separate the Cubs, the Brewers, and the Cardinals from first place in that division. And you can’t count out the Reds, who are just four and a half games behind, the Pirates, three games against them, and then three games against the Cubs. These division games matter. Every game is important, of course, but especially the NL Central.”

As the All-Star break approaches, the president of baseball operations, John Mozeliak, faces a massive decision about the team’s direction.

The club’s success is built on a specific brand of baseball. “What I really like about this Cardinals club is when you go talk to them about why they are winning. Resiliency is the exact word they use,” Woo explained. “They have grit, they have hustle, and it’s someone different impacting the game every day.” This was perfectly captured in their series against Cleveland, starting with Sonny Gray’s dominant complete-game shutout. That performance set the tone for a team that believes it can win every single night.

This combination of grit and clutch play has been thrilling. However, a deeper look at the numbers reveals the true anatomy of this contender. It shows how sustainable their success might be heading down the stretch.

A statistical deep dive: The Cardinal reset

The 2025 Cardinals’ offense is a strange but effective engine. The team is 7th in MLB with 403 runs scored. They do so with a high-contact approach, owning a. 255 team batting average. But this comes at the expense of power, as they sit just 17th in home runs. Their success hinges on their remarkable performance with runners in scoring position, where they are hitting .272, the third-best mark in baseball.

On the mound, the Cardinals have embraced a “pitch-to-defense” anomaly. Their pitching staff ranks a lowly 28th in strikeouts per nine innings. Instead, they focus on minimizing walks and home runs. They have given up the second-fewest walks and the fourth-fewest home runs in baseball. This is a move that deliberately plays to their greatest strength. It maximizes opportunities for their world-class defense to shine and save runs.

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That defense is the single most dominant feature of the team. They are, without hype, the best defense in baseball. The Cardinals are the leaders in the majors in advanced metrics such as Outs Above Average. Shortstop Masyn Winn has emerged as a premier defender. Rookie Victor Scott II gives the team elite range in center field. This defensive performance is the foundation for the entire run-prevention plan.

With their surprising success, the Cardinals are now firm buyers at the trade deadline. Their most glaring weakness remains a lack of middle-of-the-order power. The issue became more acute following Iván Herrera’s injury. Before he went down, he was the team’s most potent power source with a .320 average with 8 home runs and a staggering.925 OPS in just 42 games.