Hunter Greene is the Reds’ best chance of winning their first postseason game in a 162-game season since 2013, but the flame-throwing right-hander has a tough road ahead of him. Greene has to carry a franchise that limped into October on the shoulders of baseball’s most unlikely playoff team, even though he has a great 2.76 ERA and 132 strikeouts in 107.2 innings this year.

The Reds’ wild-card journey sounds like a story that no one thought would happen. Cincinnati went against the rules of the playoffs by only winning 83 games, which is the third-fewest by any postseason team ever. They come into the series with none of their players hitting over. 270, no pitcher with 15 wins, no bat with 25 home runs, and no arm with 200 strikeouts. Their 25-26 record over the last 51 games showed weaknesses that are now even more obvious against the Dodgers’ star-studded lineup in the best-of-three series that starts on September 30 at Dodger Stadium.

Katie Woo of The Athletic showed how hard the math is for Cincinnati. “Good luck telling the Reds anything right now. They have all the momentum and a strong starting rotation,” Woo acknowledged. “But as impressive as Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott have been this year, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani (if the series gets that far) are the obvious favorites.” Her assessment cut deeper: “The Dodgers are not a perfect team. Their bullpen woes are well-documented. But in almost any series, the advantage should go to the billion-dollar team.”

The numbers back up Woo’s prediction. Greene’s 7-4 record puts him in the middle of Cincinnati’s rotation with Nick Lodolo (9-8, 3.33 ERA) and Andrew Abbott (10-7, 2.87 ERA). The Dodgers, on the other hand, have Blake Snell’s 2.35 ERA, Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12-8 record with 201 strikeouts, and Shohei Ohtani’s 55 home runs. Lodolo’s day-to-day status with a right groin injury makes Cincinnati’s pitching depth even weaker. The Reds are on a roll, but Los Angeles has the firepower that has historically decided baseball in October.

But before the Reds’ trial by fire begins, let’s take a look at how they even made it to the postseason against all odds.

How the Reds defied history to reach October

 On the last day of the regular season, the Reds got into the playoffs by beating the New York Mets for the last National League wild card spot. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, this was the first time in franchise history that this happened. The victory on Sunday that clinched the championship turned their clubhouse into a mess, with champagne spraying all over the walls as players celebrated ending a postseason drought that had lasted since the shortened season of 2020.

Pitcher Nick Martinez captured the team’s defiant spirit perfectly. “They thought it would be a miracle for us to get here, but we believed from the beginning, man,” Martinez said. “We believed when we were down and out. We believed in spring training. Believed in what we could do and who we are, and we showed that.” His words carried weight—Cincinnati won eight of its final eleven games while watching the Mets collapse down the stretch.

The historical significance runs deeper than simply making the playoffs. The Reds haven’t won a postseason game since 2012, and their last series victory dates to 1995. Manager Terry Francona orchestrated this unlikely run in his first season with Cincinnati, proving once again why he’s considered one of baseball’s elite coaches.

This makes the Dodgers’ matchup particularly cruel. Cincinnati survived on grit and timing, squeezing through baseball’s narrowest margins. Los Angeles built its roster through financial dominance. The Reds believed their way to October. Now they face a team constructed to own it.