The biggest names in baseball are meeting in Las Vegas this week. They gather at the annual General Manager Meetings. These GMs talk shop, play cards, and maybe bluff a little. One veteran GM even said, “Everyone lies about these things.” They might say they have no money, and then they suddenly drop $400 million on a superstar. And this year, one name is on everyone’s mind: Kyle Tucker.

The 29-year-old outfielder is the top player available in free agency. Last December, the Cubs made a huge “win-now” bet to get the four-time All-Star. They sent Houston a big package, including top prospect Cam Smith, to sign Tucker’s $16.5 million deal for 2025. In the first half of the season, Tucker was in the MVP race, and the expectations around his free agent value soared to north of $500 million. But a fractured hand and a calf strain ruined his second half.

Despite the injuries, Tucker is the most valuable player on the market with an over $400 million contract. So, his value is still huge, at least for the Cubs, who never signed a player with a contract of more than $184 million.

Now, the real question is where he will land. B/R Walk-Off recently tweeted the inside scoop. “MLB GMs predict that Kyle Tucker will sign with one of the following three teams, per @BNightengale – Yankees, Blue Jays, Dodgers.”

The New York Yankees always make sense for a big star. They have a glaring hole in their outfield as Cody Bellinger just opted out of his contract. Tucker’s left-handed swing seems perfect for Yankee Stadium’s short porch. But there is a big debate.

Signing Tucker pushes Aaron Judge to center field, so many in the organization would prefer to re-sign the cheaper and more versatile Bellinger.

Toronto’s inclusion is the most interesting one on the list. The Jays just lost a heartbreaking Game 7 of the World Series, so they will be desperate to add one final piece and come back stronger. The former World Series Champion will add great offense beside Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the upcoming years, as George Springer is already in the final years of his playing career.

But there is a problem as well. Their biggest priority will be re-signing Bo Bichette, and affording both Tucker and Bichette in the same year will surely be tough.

This brings us to the most predicted front-runner and now, the two-time defending World Series champion, the Los Angeles Dodgers. They have a clear opening after outfielder Michael Conforto left. They just freed up $87 million before the offseason.

They can easily move Teoscar Hernandez to left field to lock Tucker in the right. Plus, they can use their famous deferred payment option, which helped them sign Shohei Ohtani.

The GMs have named their three favorites, but a $400 million race is never that simple.

Other teams are hiding in the weeds and waiting to strike

S, who are the dark horse teams? The San Francisco Giants have over $80 million in payroll space, and their president, Buster Posey, has been very bold lately.

And the other team is the Baltimore Orioles. Their new owner wants to operate like a big-market team. Their payroll is tiny right now, but their current GM, Mike Elias, is the man who first drafted Tucker in Houston.

But the Giants have already given huge contracts to stars like Rafael Devers and Matt Chapman.

Can they really afford another one? It remained to be seen.

And the Orioles’ biggest need is actually starting pitching, not another hitter. A third team, the Philadelphia Phillies, is also watching. But they are a “Plan B.” They will only jump in if they fail to re-sign Kyle Schwarber.

So, why are the Cubs definitely out? The answer is simple: money.

Tucker is going to get a contract worth $400 million or more. The biggest free-agent deal in Cubs history is only $184 million. That was for Jason Heyward back in 2016. So, it’s tough to think the Cubs will pay $35-40 million per year for one player. They gave Tucker the $22 million qualifying offer, but that was just a formality. They did it to get a draft pick when he leaves.