Few moments capture the unpredictability of MLB Draft picks more than 2004, when the San Diego Padres stunned the baseball world. Remember how with elite college talents like Justin Verlander and Stephen Drew on the board, the Padres turned heads by selecting Matt Bush, a local high school shortstop, with the No. 1 overall pick? Now, it seems like a replay with the Nationals.

That Padres moment signaled a trend of draft-day curveballs that would echo through future drafts. Decisions that defied logic on paper but reflected the unpredictable nature of scouting and front-office philosophies. And here we are in 2025, that trend continues… This time, the very first surprise came from the Nationals’ end.

“The Nationals have their guy. With the Number 1 pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, the Nationals select SS Eli Willits from Fort Cobb-Broxton (OK) High School.” And that post from the official MLB X handle stunned the entire baseball community!

It looked like the Nationals were set on taking a college infielder with the No. 1 pick in the 2025 MLB Draft. But then came the twist. They shocked the baseball world by selecting Eli Willits, who just became the youngest No. 1 overall pick in MLB history. Willits brings four above-average tools to the table, with his power grading out closer to average.

The Nationals are also expected to sign him to a below-slot deal, making this pick even more intriguing!

Now, talking about Ethan Holliday, his numbers this year were off the charts. He slashed an insane .617/.737/1.309 over 32 games, proving he’s much more than just a legacy name. Even though, like a lot of high school power hitters, there’s some swing-and-miss in his game, his overall hit tool is strong enough to project as a future 30-homer threat and a legit middle-of-the-order bat.

But by selecting Willits, the Nationals might have come up with a different perspective. The big question now is whether the Nationals made a savvy long-term move or if they just passed up a sure thing in Holliday and took an unnecessary risk! While time will answer for sure, the MLB community seems to have their responses ready right away. And it doesn’t really align with what the Nationals might be thinking.

The Nationals are getting called out for their selection

While the Nationals might have taken the route less traveled, it is now met with skepticism from the MLB community.

“This might be the biggest draft mistake in MLB history.” That is quite a bold verdict to pass on at this early stage. While there were examples where such bold selection didn’t prove fruitful, like the Padres’ move with Matt Bush. However, the Astros took Carlos Correa in 2012 over the expected names like Mark Appel. And he became the AL Rookie of the Year in 2015! So, what awaits Willits can only be told in time. It is beyond any doubt that Holliday still has better numbers than Willits, but let’s wait for what comes on the field.

“ngl this kinda shocking.” That’s for sure! No one had expected that a kid who is yet to become 18 and still in high school would land the No. 1 pick over someone who was a projected No. 1 pick. But there might be an economic reason behind the Nationals’ shocking move. By taking Eli Willits with the No. 1 pick and likely signing him for well under the $11 million slot value, the Nationals are playing the long game. It’s definitely a gamble. But it could pay off if they’re able to load up on multiple talented prospects besides Willits.

“The Nationals have a guy. Ethan Holliday was the clear #1 prospect.” Well, Holliday’s power potential is what makes him a clear differentiator for any team. His left-handed swing generates natural loft and high bat speed. It makes him a probable future 30+ homer middle-of-the-order threat. No other names in this year’s draft got such a projection. And that’s just one USP of Holliday. But again, the Nationals might have played a different game.

“The wrong guy.” Brutal verdict on Willits. During his time at Fort Cobb-Broxton High School, Willits helped lead his team to six state titles over just three years. Moreover, he also represented Team USA in 2024 on the 18U squad, posting a .345 on-base percentage across eight games. You can’t just let off these numbers. And according to interim GM Mike DeBartolo, “Eli is a special player. A great hit tool makes contacts and controls the strike zones… Switch hitter. Um, just a clean operation at the plate… Just an elite shortstop. Somebody who stays at shortstop, somebody with great range, smooth hands, a great arm, accurate.”

“This is why the Nationals will always be poverty.” The Nationals are historically known for their unexpected moves, be it in trading or the draft. Remember how they traded Juan Soto in 2022 in exchange for prospects like CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, and James Wood? A few of them actually became top names later. And with such an approach, the Nationals got the 2019 World Series. It’s true that since 2019, they have gone downhill with no more postseason appearances, but it might still not be enough to be called in poverty.

What are your thoughts on this move?