Paul Skenes had the best year of any young pitcher in baseball. He was the best player in the National League. As per this, he is very likely to win the Cy Young Award, the best award for a baseball pitcher. However, this might not be the case, as ESPN’s latest projection from Bradford Doolittle gives the edge to Philadelphia Phillies’ pitcher Cristopher Sanchez, whom the team paid $22.5 million for. If the prediction holds true, it would be a heartbreaking outcome for Skenes and Pirates fans.

Doolittle’s decision from ESPN is a big blow to Skenes. The Pirates’ rookie had some truly shocking numbers: a 1.97 ERA, 216 strikeouts, and a 10-10 record over 187⅔ innings. He had the best ERA+, WHIP, and FIP in the entire National League. These are stats that show how well a pitcher is doing without taking into account the rest of the team. Doolittle gave Sanchez the edge even though his individual statistics were better, saying that there was a key difference between the two competitors’ situations.

Doolittle said in his analysis, “Sanchez has the edge in volume—202 innings to 187⅔, in part because the Pirates eased up on Skenes toward the end.” The reasoning shows what the debate is really about. Sanchez pitched 14⅓ more innings, which gave him a small edge in bWAR (8.0 to 7.7) even though Skenes had better rate stats. But the most important thing for Doolittle’s decision was the added championship probability.

Sanchez’s season added 3.2 percent to the championship chances of a Phillies team that won the division. On the other hand, Skenes’ season added only 0.5 percent to the Pirates’ chances, who finished last in the league. “That is not Skenes’ fault,” Doolittle acknowledged, “but we’ve got to separate these pitchers somehow.”

The argument for Sanchez based on the situation is based on a bigger idea about how individual success fits into team success. The Phillies catcher, J.T. Realmuto, and manager, Rob Thomson, were happy with Sanchez’s consistency throughout the season, especially after ace Zack Wheeler got hurt and Sanchez had to step up. “His stuff has always been really good. But I think his command over the last couple of years has also gotten better, and that, in turn, has given him even more confidence,” Realmuto said of Sanchez.

Sanchez had a 2.50 ERA and 212 strikeouts, which are both good but not as good as Skenes’. Sanchez’s regular-season wins were key to the Phillies making the playoffs. No matter how much better Skenes’ stats are or how unfair it is to compare a rookie on a losing team to a veteran on a championship contender, voters can’t ignore this team context.

Ranger Suarez and the Phillies face an expensive goodbye

ESPN’s prediction gives Sanchez the edge in the Cy Young Award. The Philadelphia Phillies know this: make a good team, and the individual successes will surely follow. But then comes the gut punch. Ranger Suarez, one of the best pitchers in Philadelphia and the ace everyone thought would stay for years, decided to see what free agency was like. Now that he’s available, teams all over baseball are ready to pay him a lot of money. The Phillies are about to see their star pitcher in a new uniform.

Suarez put himself in a good position to make a lot of money this offseason. The bidding has already started to heat up, with several teams seeing him as the missing piece that would make their rotations better. Daniel Curran, an MLB analyst for JustBaseball, says that the Atlanta Braves are a good fit.

“After a season to forget in 2025, the Braves need to retool if they’re looking to rebound and once again become a contender in a loaded NL East,” Curran explained. The Braves’ pitching staff really needs help because Chris Sale is 37 years old, Spencer Schwellenbach is hurt, and young prospects like Hurston Waldrep are still getting better. “Signing Suarez would not only add long-term stability to the rotation, but it would take a key player from a division rival,” Curran added. His projection slots Suarez into a multi-year deal averaging $25 million annually with Atlanta.

Kiley McDonald from ESPN says that a four-year, $92 million contract—about $23 million per season with any team that wants him—would be even better. Either way, Suarez will get a lot of money, and Philadelphia will lose a lot of money.

The Phillies spent a lot of money on their rotation, but their stars keep leaving. Sanchez won the Cy Young award, but now the team has to watch as another reliable pitcher gets ready to help a rival in the division.