“Pete Alonso has opted out,” Jon Heyman stated on November 4. Pete Alonso went for his opt-out clause, leaving a one-year, $24 million contract with the Mets. The Polar Bear enters free agency with an expectation to get something more than the 2 years, $54M that he signed with the Mets. But right now, the answer is anything but guaranteed.

In 2024, he hoped to get a lucrative deal worth $150M. But even with teams like the Phillies, the Giants, and the Red Sox, connected to Alonso, they were not ready to commit the same. So, Alonso went to the Mets in the end. But 2025 isn’t the same.

The star delivered the best offensive numbers since his rookie season. He also has had a productive career, averaging 42 home runs and a 135 OPS+ per 162 games. And as per Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, “one key underlying metric (xwOBA) was the best of his career.” So what can be the roadblock for him to get a large deal? The answer lies in his age and skill set.

Kiley McDaniel noted, “His strikeout rate was down and his power numbers were up, which both would be affected by the shortening of his swing length. The shortness of his swing was in the 74th percentile (ranked 58th) this season.” That percentile was 51 last season among qualified hitters. But that’s not the same when we look at his baserunning and defensive metrics.

They continue to go down, especially because of his range. Fans still remember June 2025, when Alonso’s high throw to an onrushing Kodai Senga caused Senga to strain his right hamstring, landing him on the injured list. This is why analysts think Alonso “should be a primary DH going forward, which would hurt his long-term value.” 

There is another reason that can stop him from getting a lucrative deal.

The market in general is wary of investing so much in any right-handed 1B. So why do lefties stand out? They line up closer to first base, which can give them a slight edge on infield hits, and left-handed batters usually face right-handed pitchers, giving them a better look at the ball.

As per ESPN, “There’s some of the Schwarber logic here — everyone in baseball would like to have Alonso for the next few seasons, but then the interest gets more mixed around season three or four. I could see some teams offering a fifth year, but for a number about half of the AAV listed above, so something more like $120-125 million guaranteed. The industry values a left-handed bat (Schwarber) more than a right-handed one (Alonso), so that combined with Schwarber’s better 2025 numbers makes up for him being older than Alonso.”

In 2025, Kyle had a 6th-place OPS number (.928) and 2nd in HRs (56). So, even at 32 years, teams may consider him a better choice than Alonso (30 years).

And that is why ESPN projects a $128M, 4-year deal for Kyle Schwarber, and for Alonso, that number becomes only $110M. But the competition will be close.

As Alonso re-enters free agency, the Mets now find themselves confronting the harsh reality, replacing a player whose average of 41 homers a season since 2019.

Thin free-agent market leaves Mets with limited power options

Other than Pete Alonso, the first-base market is extremely thin.

Josh Naylor is a 28-year-old and stands as the next best alternative available, coming off a .295/.353/.462 season with the Mariners and a strong October showing. He is widely respected for his work ethic and defense, having posted positive Outs Above Average (OAA) every season since moving to first base in 2020. But while Naylor offers steadiness, he does not come with the same thunder as Alonso’s.

His career OPS is 80 points lower, and his highest OPS+ of 130 barely matches even Alonso’s worst season.

After Naylor, the options are very limited.

Ryan O’Hearn, who has never hit more than 17 homers in a season, would hardly replace Alonso’s middle-of-the-order presence. The only and truly fascinating wild card option is Munetaka Murakami, a 25-year-old Japanese slugger who pushed his way to a 1.051 OPS in Nippon Professional Baseball.

David Stearns, Mets president, even flew to Japan in August to watch him hit a walk-off homer. But while Murakami’s potential is exciting, his transition from Japan to MLB may be unpredictable.

Meanwhile, another name is Cody Bellinger. But acquiring him would be like trading one expensive start for another, and his left-handed bat is not suitable for the Mets’ right-heavy top order.

In the end, every option feels like a step down. If the Mets truly want to contend, the way of least resistance, and most logic, might just lead them back to Pete Alonso.