Things are not looking good for the Philles. Having lost their opening 2 games against the Dodgers in the NLDS, under-fire manager Rob Thomson’s choice of pitcher for Game 3 has sparked further debate. With their season on the line, Thomson has decided to give Aaron Nola instead of Ranger Suárez. This choice has left former players and fans wondering why a struggling pitcher is being shoehorned into the most important game of the year.

The numbers tell a story that makes it hard to defend Thomson’s choice. Nola’s postseason stats are a lot worse: he has a 4.02 ERA and a 5-4 record, while Suárez has a 1.43 ERA in the playoffs and a 3-1 record in 10 career playoff games.. Still, he gets the call for an elimination game. Suarez has lived up to his $9 million price tag so far this season, which makes it even more strange that he isn’t starting.

Mets World Series champion Lenny Dykstra voiced his disbelief on social media, writing, “Having a difficult time understanding this one @Phillies #RingTheBell Ranger > Nola NailsKnows.”A lot of people feel the same way about Thomson’s decision as Dykstra does. It’s a big deal when a player like Dykstra questions a management decision in public. It’s not just second-guessing; it’s a real worry that a team will lose its best chance when its life is on the line.

Thomson defended his choice by pointing out the statistical similarities but also relying on things that can’t be measured. “The numbers on their lefty hitters are very similar, Ranger versus Nola,” Thomson explained. “And the trust factor, I have trust in both of them, don’t get me wrong. But Nola has pitched in some really big games for us in the last couple of years.” Thomson’s focus on trust and experience shows his philosophy, but whether that faith is justified will be decided Wednesday night at Dodger Stadium, where the Philadelphia Phillies’ season will make-or-break.

Rob Thomson puts faith in Aaron Nola for must-win game

Thomson is still committed to his vision for Game 3, even though this decision is very risky. He picked Nola even though the veteran had a subpar regular season with injuries that made it hard for him to make 17 starts and have a 6.01 ERA and a losing record. Nola’s numbers were the worst of his career, but the manager is looking beyond the surface-level stats.

Thomson talked about how different Nola’s problems were this year compared to his reputation in the playoffs. The 32-year-old right-hander has come through in October, striking out 58 batters in 53.2 playoff innings over the course of his career. Thomson has played in a lot of different levels of playoff baseball, and those moments mean more to him than a tough regular season full of injuries.

When you look at Suárez’s year, the choice seems even stranger. The left-hander had a great season as a starter, with a 3.20 ERA. His playoff stats make an even stronger case: he has a  1.43 ERA in eight postseason starts, which shows that he does well when pressure is cranked up. People are wondering why Thomson didn’t just start Suárez instead of waiting for Nola to finish.

Rob Thomson is going with his gut instead of what the stats say because he thinks that playoff experience matters more than recent performance. If Nola has a hard time at first, Thomson will think about this decision all winter. He trusts his gut over the numbers, and Wednesday night will show us if that trust was well-placed.