Nothing is certain in baseball, but if bad luck had a trademark, Toronto Blue Jays might have a monopoly over it. First, they missed out on Shohei Ohtani. Then Juan Soto just slipped out of their fingers. As if that was not enough, they couldn’t even land Roki Sasaki, not even when money was no bar. And right now they are staring down at a huge possibility that their star, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., may leave too.

With no extension in place, Guerrero is set to hit free agency next season. And you can bet that when he does, he will be that guy in the market – someone every team will want!

The reason for Vlad not accepting the deal was a disagreement in the pay value. Now, while the figure was earlier unknown, it has recently been revealed. According to MLB analyst Ken Rosenthal, Toronto offered him a deal that appears to be in the $500 million range. But with deferrals, it was only about closer to $450 million in present value. However, Vlad was firm that he wanted $500 million for 14 years, and Rosenthal thinks that the Jays should cut the deal, giving fans hope.

According to Rosenthal, the gap is small. Foul Territory reported him saying, “The difference we are talking about is $50 million over 14 years. That’s not a lot of money—they can do that. At least they can compromise on that.” And honestly, he is right.

Fifty million dollars may sound like a lot, but when it’s stretched over 14 years, that’s a difference of just over $3.5 million per season. For the Toronto Blue Jays, that should be no deal breaker. And if you are being real, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not just any another player; he is the face of the franchise and the magnet to pull stars to build a championship-worthy team.

Last season, while the team struggled, individually his performance was through the roof. He hit 30 home runs, 103 RBIs, and a .940 OPS. He was an all-star again and proved why the Jays need to build a team around him. Rosenthal summed it up best: “He’s a homegrown player. He’s a native Canadian… and he wants to stay. So, I just don’t see the problem unless, somehow, the Jays don’t value him properly.” There seems to be no reason for Toronto to hesitate for 50 million. If they are serious, they should try to scoop him fast!

What happens next for Vladimir Guerrero Jr and the Jays?

Ken Rosenthal called this entire ordeal with Toronto not agreeing to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s demand a curious case. And frankly, it is, and he isn’t the only one who feels the numbers don’t add up. Because even MLB insider Buster Olney opened up about the case in his article and his reaction? Pure confusion too.

“The present-day value of what Vlad wanted was about $45 a year. The Jays signed George Springer five years ago, at age 31, for $25m AAV, and offered Soto closer to $50m AAV. The math does not make sense,” said Onley on X. And well, he isn’t wrong. Plus, Guerrero Jr. has been very vocal about wanting to be in the Toronto Blue Jays. It’s the only franchise he has ever known, after all. Right now the franchise cannot afford to lose a key player, not when they are having difficulty even attracting another one.

Now it’s not a money issue; it’s almost like a franchise-defining issue. Now none of the insiders ruled out the possibility of an agreement. Didn’t everyone already learn from Pete Alonso and the Mets—never say never? But that doesn’t mean there is no middle ground.

If the Blue Jays are not willing to go for the extra $50 million for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and he is eventually heading to the market, the team might as well make some profit out of it. They could cash in now and get a massive trade return. And teams are already keeping an eye on Vlad. The New York Yankees and New York Mets, are set to be the front runners here. So right now nothing is set in stone.

Do you think they are willing to do everything to keep him in Toronto? Or will they simply let him walk away to their division rival’s arms? Let us know in the comments.