Tarik Skubal has quickly become the biggest name to watch this offseason. At first, it seemed like Kyle Tucker would dominate the headlines. But the way things are shaping up, Skubal has clearly stolen the spotlight, especially with deep-pocketed teams circling.

And a lot of that attention comes from reports of a contract dispute between Skubal and the Tigers. And with both the Yankees and Mets falling short on the field this year, all eyes are now on which team can win the battle for Skubal off the field. According to New York insider Andy Martino, he’s got a gut feeling about who might actually pull it off.

“Gut feeling, knowing the two organizations and where they’re at at the moment, it feels like more of a Mets thing,” Martino answered when asked about who could cut.

Including this year, Tarik Skubal has now put together back-to-back historic seasons — both likely ending with Cy Young Awards. Even though the Tigers fell short in the ALDS both times, Skubal was top-notch in his playoff performance.

Over six postseason outings across the past two years, he’s posted a stellar 2.04 ERA. That’s enough to send his market value soaring to the point where even Detroit might have to back off.

Well, according to Jon Heyman, the gap between what the Tigers are offering and what Skubal wants could be around $250 million. Why? Because Detroit reportedly put four years and under $100 million on the table last year, which suggests Skubal is eyeing something closer to $350 million. And that kind of standoff has opened the door for the big spenders to swoop in.

Detroit’s biggest issue in the playoffs was its offense disappearing in key moments. So if they’re going to trade Skubal, they’ll need major help at the plate. The Mets can offer just that with players like Mark Vientos and Francisco Alvarez. Add in pitching prospect Nolan McLean, who’s shown plenty of upside in 2025, and the Mets’ package looks tailor-made for the Tigers’ needs.

Meanwhile, the Yankees’ offer of Luis Gil, Will Warren, and outfield prospect Spencer Jones isn’t bad, but it doesn’t quite have the same spark. And considering the Mets’ recent history of going all-in for big names, it’s easy to see why Martino is leaning toward the Mets as the frontrunners for Skubal. Remember the Juan Soto splash last year?

Skubal’s arbitration might come in the middle

For those unfamiliar, Tarik Skubal is heading into his final year of arbitration with the Tigers. Before the 2025 season, he avoided arbitration by signing a one-year, $10.15 million deal. But his long-term future in Detroit is still very much up in the air.

Now, that uncertainty alone complicates any potential trade talks with teams like the Mets or Yankees. After all, shelling out $350 million, or part of the top prospects, sounds risky. That too, for a player who’s only under team control for one more year!! For example, if the Yankees were to make that kind of investment, they’d essentially be getting just the 2026 season from Skubal before he hits free agency again.

That kind of short-term gamble feels risky, especially given what happened last year. The Yankees went all in for Juan Soto, sending Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez, Drew Thorpe, and Kyle Higashioka to the Padres, only for Soto to play a single season in pinstripes before jumping ship to the Mets.

So, whether it’s the Yankees or the Mets, both teams will likely think long and hard before gutting their rosters for a pitcher who might only be a one-year rental.