Allegations Against NASCAR Over Manipulating a Race Get Stronger With Glaring New Revelations

“If we’re Bailey and Barnum [the circus], then let’s just freaking call it Bailey and Barnum.” This was Kyle Busch’s infuriated reaction to NASCAR’s innovation for the upcoming All-Star Race. Allegations of race manipulation in the sport have sprung up in recent times. Most notably, the OEMs tried to push their respective drivers into the 2024 Championship 4 race in Martinsville. However, even NASCAR executives have been accused of such manipulation.

The use of yellow flags has evolved over the last 20 years in NASCAR. From using too many caution flags to using too less and even to drastic inconsistencies, executives have riled up the community. Now, a statistical revelation makes deeper inroads into this debate.

Is NASCAR hoarding more control?

Well, the spotlight on this topic may be because of several reasons. The ongoing NASCAR lawsuit against the sanctioning body’s alleged ‘monopolistic practices’ may be one. However, a more concrete reason lies in a series of bizarre events at the start of the 2025 season. During the second Duel Qualifier race at Daytona International Speedway, Erik Jones crossed the finish line first. However, NASCAR called a caution a few hundred feet before he did so, and hence, Austin Cindric, who was leading during the caution, was named the winner.

Then, at Atlanta Motor Speedway, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, and Carson Hocevar were primed to put up a photo finish. Before they could fight it out, the Race Control Tower froze the field yet again on the final lap as Christopher Bell was awarded the win. These instances prompted fans to bash executives on social media. But the story is deeper than they expected.

In the mid-2000s, NASCAR introduced “phantom debris” cautions that riled up fans. Dr. Diandra Leslie-Pelecky, an expert in all things NASCAR, showed how that trend is coming back. She broke down some jaw-dropping statistics recently. She generated an overview of cautions and caution laps from 2001 to 2025. Since 2001, the percentage of laps run under caution has varied from around 12% to 17% of all laps run.

But 2025 records a higher tendency to call cautions, which have already covered 17.4% of laps across 12 races. Leslie-Pelecky shared her concerns: “This is the first time since 2011 that there have been more than five cautions in Stage 1 at a Phoenix race…If the current rate of cautions continues, the Cup Series is on track for a total of 270 cautions for the full season. That’s 28 more cautions than either of the last two years.”

It’s not that fans don’t want cautions, it’s just that they need to be called at the right time and when necessary. Long-green flag runs set up nerve-wracking endings, where fuel mileage and tire wear become essential to victory. A constant barrage of restarts, like we saw at Texas Motor Speedway not so long ago, leads to drivers who have not dominated the race at all moving up on restarts to gain spots. Joey Logano only led the last 7 laps at Texas en route to victory, and Ross Chastain didn’t have a single stage point and finished P2.

This might be a worrisome piece of news for those who were already skeptical of NASCAR’s approach. The sanctioning body already faced immense fire for its inconsistency at the start of the year. After Daytona and Atlanta’s unexpected cautions, the sanctioning body hit reverse brakes at the Daytona 500, putting many people in danger. Elton Sawyer, NASCAR’s Senior VP of competition, tried to appease fans and drivers back in February. He said, “Our goal is to finish our races under green conditions. That’s our number one goal. But we’re also not going to be racing through a debris field. So, you can expect cautions to come out based on last night. That was on us.”

However, an important point to note amidst all this is the role the Next-Gen car plays. With the underbody dominating the weight distribution, a bump during a side draft can lead to the driver having flat tires and spinning out. The Texas race saw the bumps on Turns 3 and 4 do this to multiple drivers, and the Kansas race saw Busch get spun out due to a tap on his right front.

The lack of passing because of the level of parity leads to drivers trying extra hard to gain positions, leading to more wrecks and cautions. And keep in mind, this is the fourth year of the Next-Gen car, so teams have had a good three years to test what works and what doesn’t, which is why we saw records topple like Bell winning three races in a row or William Byron leading almost the entire race at Darlington, before an ill-time caution decided his fate.

So, while NASCAR is to blame for some questionable late-race cautions. The Next-Gen car is also putting them in the position to have to make those decisions. If they make the tires softer, then the stage end cautions eat up time as clearing marbles off the track takes longer, like we saw at Martinsville, where 12 laps were lost during stage breaks.

So, despite NASCAR’s willingness to accept the blame, the statistics may be a concerning factor, and the Next-Gen car has a role to play. Meanwhile, the sanctioning body is strengthening its chokehold on the All-Star Race as well. Yet one veteran Cup Series driver does not mind it.

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A divided stance on the All-Star idea

Well, the All-Star Race has always been a haven of experimentation. Being the only non-points Cup race in a season, NASCAR has tested many policies like stage racing or Goodyear’s high-wear tires. In 2025, however, Speedway Motorsports Inc. CEO Marcus Smith has bigger reins than before. Kyle Busch called him ‘Bailey and Barnum’, as Smith will have the power to throw a caution flag at any time before Lap 220 of the 250-lap race.

While it’s meant to spice up the show, Busch clearly was not a fan. “What are we doing?” the two-time Cup Series champion exclaimed. However, his Cup Series rival, Denny Hamlin, has a different viewpoint. Despite spearheading 23XI Racing’s legal battle against NASCAR’s control of the sport, Hamlin is in favor of Smith’s caution control.

Denny Hamlin recently explained that drivers do have time to prepare beforehand. He said, “All-Star format’s okay. Does it have a gimmick in there? Yeah, but it’s not super gimmicky. I hear some people talk about, ‘Oh, this is just all we need is NASCAR to open up Pandora’s box. They can throw a caution whenever they want.’ I mean, it could be worse. We know it’s coming, so you might as well just plan for it as a team, that if we don’t have a caution between Lap 175 and 220, they are going to throw a caution. So you might as well just bank on that.”

Well, NASCAR’s reins of control may be the hot topic of this season. As 2025 rolls forward, let us see how the caution scene plays out at racetracks.