“Even Bubba Wallace, who is a chunk above, right? 57 points above in 13th. That scares me.” Steve Letarte voiced his concerns for Bubba Wallace before the Atlanta race, and as it turned out, he was right to worry. Atlanta didn’t prove to be the redemption Wallace needed. In fact, it pushed him even closer to the playoff cutline. Now clinging to the final transfer spot with a pack of determined contenders right behind him, the pressure is mounting fast.

For a driver whose talent is unquestionable but whose results remain inconsistent, the margin for error is shrinking by the week. And with rumors swirling and co-owner Denny Hamlin being blunt about team expectations, the bigger question may not be about the playoffs. It may be about 2025 and beyond.

Denny Hamlin’s bold message to Bubba Wallace

Bubba Wallace’s 2025 campaign is starting to echo the struggles of 2024, when he narrowly missed the playoffs. With just eight races left in the regular season, he once again finds himself in dangerous territory. Wallace is clinging to the final playoff spot by a slim 23-point margin over Ryan Preece. And that’s before factoring in the looming threat of winless drivers behind him scoring a surprise victory and bumping him out altogether.

After three straight DNFs derailed his midseason hopes, Wallace bounced back with a solid run. He was sixth at Nashville, fourth at Michigan, and a steady 12th in Mexico City. But that brief momentum was cut short by a 36th-place finish at Pocono (brake failure) and 22nd at Atlanta after contact in the Big One that involved half of the field.

Now, as other bubble drivers like Shane van Gisbergen and Chase Briscoe have locked themselves into the postseason with wins, the heat is very much on. Denny Hamlin, Wallace’s co-owner at 23XI Racing, made his expectations loud and clear. “I just know the resources that we’ve put in at 23XI, and all of our drivers should win. That is the expectation that I have of them. Obviously, it is a results-based business, and if you don’t over time, you consider your options.”

Still, Hamlin hasn’t lost faith entirely. “I’ve seen enough progression, specifically, from the [Wallace] standpoint, that I can see where this can go. Putting himself in a playoff position year after year is good, but winning makes it better.” Wallace, too, understands Hamlin’s viewpoint.

“We have expected to win at this point in the season, and we have yet to do that,” Wallace admitted. “If we can just do our jobs, there’s no one behind us in the points that can beat us. So we’ll just continue to do that.” The NASCAR Cup Series now heads to Chicago this weekend. It will be a critical test for Wallace. Not just to hold off the rising tide of challengers, but to finally deliver the win that could silence doubts and solidify his playoff spot before time runs out.

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Bubba Wallace’s chances at Chicago

Bubba Wallace’s performances at the Chicago Street Race over the past two years reflect both the unique challenges of NASCAR’s urban experiment and his own ongoing quest for consistency on unfamiliar layouts. Since the inaugural running in 2023, the Chicago Street Course has proven to be one of the most unpredictable and demanding events on the NASCAR calendar. And Wallace’s results? Well, they have mirrored that volatility.

In 2023, Wallace entered the Chicago Street Race with high hopes, buoyed by the excitement of NASCAR’s first-ever city street event. However, the race quickly turned into a battle for survival. Torrential rain, slick pavement, and tight confines tested every driver’s skill and patience.

But Wallace ultimately struggled to find speed on the damp, technical circuit. He crossed the finish line in 31st place. A year later, in 2024, Wallace returned to Chicago. He now had a year of street course experience under his belt and a more aggressive approach. The race, run under dry conditions, featured fewer dramatic incidents but still demanded precision and adaptability. Wallace ultimately finished 13th, once again outside the top 10, but demonstrating improved comfort on the street course compared to his debut.

Overall, Wallace’s performances at Chicago (and on street courses in general) have been marked by steady progress. But, they have yet to yield a signature result. As NASCAR heads back to Chicago in 2025, Wallace faces a crucial opportunity. The driver in danger can turn his street course experience into a statement performance. It could not only secure his playoff spot but also silence lingering doubts about his ability to contend on every type of track.