Denny Hamlin’s candid breakdowns on NASCAR’s competitive edge keep sparking fan discussions, especially around what sets drivers apart in a series full of high-stakes turns. Shane van Gisbergen has captured that spotlight with his road course mastery, securing four wins in 2025 at Mexico City, Sonoma, Chicago, and Watkins Glen, along with an impeccable 1.0 average finish and ~208 laps led. Former driver and NBC commentator Dale Jarrett, reflecting on this run, noted, “I don’t know how you can’t say that he is not that. I mean, to win, he’s not just winning these races by a small margin…He does whatever he needs to.” But is road course mastery the only road to the championship? Hamlin has a different opinion about this.

For aspiring racers, studying SVG’s braking points offers practical tips, like optimizing entry speeds to shave seconds on similar layouts. His command echoes Jeff Gordon’s 1990s road course streak, where his precision from 1997 to 2000 netted six consecutive wins, drawing crowds eager for edge-of-the-seat action. SVG’s Supercars background also brings a unique edge, sparking talks on adaptation in Cup racing. But as Hamlin weighs in on long-term success, he discusses some key hurdles that stand between SVG and what defines true greatness.

Denny Hamlin questions SVG’s path to greatness

Denny Hamlin dismisses the fact that SVG is ever going to be that great at ovals due to the already established heavy competition. Hamlin expressed this on his Action Detrimental podcast, highlighting the oval dominance by elites. When co-host Jared Allen praised his road-course dominance, in response to it, Hamlin said, “I see your point. But there’s 30 other races that make up NASCAR, right? And so, you know, in the long term, I mean, he’s certainly getting better at the Ovals and hopefully he’ll put himself in the contender level of on the Ovals soon. But still, I think it’s going to be really, really tough to overcome the sports elite on ovals. I don’t think he’s going to be able to do that.”

This stems from SVG‘s oval record, where in the 2025 Cup starts, he has an average finish of 26.3, no poles, and only 12 laps led. Contrast that with road courses, where his four wins and 1.0 average finish show mastery, but ovals demand traffic navigation that has eluded him. Hamlin’s skepticism draws from his own battles against top oval runners like Kyle Larson, who has 10 oval wins since 2021. SVG’s career oval stats include no victories in 30 Cup attempts, with his best 2025 oval finish at 10th in one race.

Allen noted, “I feel like on road courses, we’re not seeing parity. We’re seeing SVG just wax the field every single time. And he’s creating a star presence for himself in NASCAR, just based on his road course ability.” Hamlin agreed on the star-building but stressed ovals’ weight, much like Juan Pablo Montoya, who won two road races in Cup but zero ovals, peaking at second in 2009 points without a title.

That oval edge remains key, as Hamlin reiterated the series’ makeup. For his road course dominance, Hamlin certainly said “that’s a great point,” affirming that it does create the buzz, but the 30 ovals test depth. SVG’s Xfinity oval efforts, like a 12th at Daytona in 2024, hint at growth, yet Cup ovals show ongoing issues with an average of 25.0 career finish. This mirrors Mark Martin’s 40 wins without a championship, where playoff oval slips limited his status despite his talent. Hamlin’s words prompt a look ahead, especially to tracks like Richmond, where technical demands rise.

Hamlin flags Richmond’s technical demands

Denny Hamlin, coming off a 25th at Watkins Glen, addressed Richmond‘s rigors. He said, “Richmond is just so technical, and a lot depends on how you drive it and how you manage your tires. It’s a really hard track. The margin for error is very small.” The 0.75-mile short track amplifies tire management, with the Next Gen car’s sensitivity to bottom misses costing time.

Hamlin’s five Richmond wins underscore his point, but his 2024 spring victory there came after leading 17 laps in overtime. Approach matters at Richmond, where missing the bottom by a foot drops positions fast. Hamlin noted, “How you approach it, you can’t miss the bottom by more than about a foot, or you lose a lot of time.”

His four poles there show qualifying’s value, yet recent runs highlight error costs. For teams, balancing grip and speeds test setups, as in his 2023 win, leading 189 laps. His 2022 Richmond win, leading 197 laps, came through clean runs. As playoffs loom, Hamlin’s take stresses execution in the upcoming race, not just for SVG, but for everyone fighting for their place in the post-season.