Denny Hamlin, Chase Briscoe, and Christopher Bell each bagged wins to give the team a clean sweep through the Round of 16, and on paper, that kind of dominance screams championship favorites. But here is the test: Phoenix. After all, the ‘Desert Mile’ is where the title will be decided, and history hasn’t always been kind to JGR there. If anything, Denny Hamlin is cognizant of that. And let’s just say if optimism were horsepower, he wouldn’t exactly be leading the field…

Even after teammate Christopher Bell stormed to victory at Bristol on Saturday night after edging Brad Keselowski by just 0.343 seconds, and delivered JGR its third straight win in the Round of 16, Hamlin endured a rough evening and wound up 31st. Though he still maintains the playoff lead after his dominant display at Gateway, the 44-year-old veteran is more concerned than confident.

Speaking to FOX Sports’ Bob Pockrass after the race at the Tennessee short track, the No. 11 driver tempered expectations, making it clear that Phoenix remains a puzzle for the organization. He said, “I mean, I don’t know. It’s all about Phoenix, right? That’s where they crowned the champion. I don’t know the last time we won there, so I don’t know. We’ll see.”

History backs his caution. Hamlin, a two-time winner at the desert oval, hasn’t conquered the 1-mile track since November 2019 and could only manage an 11th-place finish in both races in his last season. Christopher Bell, for his part, has also taken two career wins at Phoenix, but he’s yet to finish better than fifth in the championship race. Chase Briscoe, the third JGR contender, scored his lone Phoenix win in March 2022, yet his last two appearances have been far from inspiring, both outside the top 20.

The numbers paint a challenging picture. Across the board, JGR drivers have averaged weaker results at Phoenix compared to Hendrick Motorsports’ heavyweights Kyle Larson and William Byron, as well as Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney, all of whom have consistently outperformed in the Next Gen era. It is the gap that fuels Hamlin’s caution and frames Phoenix as the ultimate test for JGR’s title hopes.

Moreover, Bristol itself was disastrous for the veteran. The No. 11 driver held onto the second round of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, but disaster struck on lap 385. Hamlin started with fresh tires on lap 373 and 12 laps down, slight contact with AJ Allmendinger, the No. 11 car, shed its right front wheel, sparking a crash that immediately drew a two-lap penalty for Hamlin’s crew. And now the NASCAR rulebook leaves no room for debate. Losing a wheel on the track comes with consequences. Beyond the two-lap penalty served in the pits, the sanctioning body typically hands down suspensions to two over-the-wall crew members responsible for tire changes.

With Denny Hamlin’s new enemy having been established (tires), the No. 11 driver has dropped the hammer on the tire return. The softer tire gamble at Bristol didn’t pay its dividends for the Joe Gibbs Racing driver. His night at Bristol ended in disappointment. When asked if he would support the return of the tires, Hamlin suggested a less aggressive tire compound.

Denny Hamlin said, “I mean, it’s nagging. Yeah, I mean, it’s certainly a version of it, I think, that would be cool. I mean, it just never really could go or, you know, I couldn’t. It might have been, you know, more my setup. It seemed like some others were able to go a little bit longer than what I was, but yeah, I mean, a version of this, but, you know, maybe something a little bit less aggressive.”

Even fans had been sounding off on the tire experiment. It is safe to say that the NASCAR community isn’t too happy with the new, softer tires. And now, as the Round of 12 starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway next weekend and moves to Kansas Speedway and the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval for the following two races, Hamlin has made his point clear on the tire experiment. However, the No. 11 team is fighting another battle right now.

Denny Hamlin’s team pushes back on the penalty

The No. 11 team wasn’t going to let this go. Crew chief Chris Gayle was quick to defend the team, insisting that the collision with AJ Allmendinger caused the right front wheel to come off, rather than any mistake during the pit stop. NASCAR officials, however, enforced the penalty that was written during the race. Gayle remarked, “We didn’t know what happened yet.” Gayle expanded after the race, describing the unusual chain of events and noting that further investigation from NASCAR was likely. He expressed surprise at the simultaneous contact with another car and a wheel nut, suggesting it was a highly uncommon scenario.

And the driver, Denny Hamlin, shared his own perspective too, highlighting the circumstances during his pit stop. He said, “We were the only car on pit road at the time, and unfortunately, the tire fell off. There was clearly an issue with the car. We had just hit the wall the lap before, so I can’t look at the suspension and tell if it was broke or not. Certainly, there was something there that was out of whack. ”

When asked about appealing the penalty, Hamlin pointed to potential mechanical issues stemming from earlier contact with the wall, which may have contributed to the wheel failure. Despite the looming threat of suspension, Chris Gayle remained confident in the team’s ability to adapt. Experienced in navigating postseason adversity, Joe Gibbs Racing is prepared to adjust personnel if NASCAR upholds the penalty.