The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs always have those moments that can flip the championship on its head. And this year, the Kansas race had one such moment. Denny Hamlin, on the cusp of his milestone 60th win, came on Bubba Wallace’s side on the final lap and nudged him a bit, thinking he was the only driver left to beat. But Chase Elliott sprang up from oblivion and stole the win from Hamlin on that very same lap. On the surface, it looks like yet another case where Team Penske, masters of playoff tactics, benefited from the misfortune of others.

But is it fair to say Denny Hamlin may have inadvertently handed Roger Penske another shot at the Cup by denying Toyota a strategic advantage? To answer that, it’s worth re-examining Joey Logano’s 2024 title run, the Kansas chaos, and why Penske’s late-season prowess continues to haunt their rivals.

How Joey Logano earned last year’s championship and why it mattered

Joey Logano’s 2024 NASCAR Cup Series championship was both a celebrated and a controversial one. Logano secured his third career title by outlasting teammate Ryan Blaney and seizing the lead at Phoenix with a daring move on a late-race restart. He credited the win to his ability to “outsmart and outrace” Blaney, capitalizing on his team’s flawless pit calls and raw composure under playoff pressure.

Despite only seven top-five finishes and a 17.1 average finish (the worst for a Cup champion), Logano played the format to perfection, earning four wins, including the finale. “The restart was everything. Getting a good start and getting cleared quickly…they showed up under pressure,” Logano said after prevailing in the final 53 laps.

Some pundits and fans questioned the legitimacy of Logano’s triumph, critiquing NASCAR’s playoff system for allowing a “clutch closer” to claim the title despite season-long inconsistencies. Yet, as Jeff Burton bluntly put it: “Bullsh**! He won the championship.”

The broader NASCAR world saw Penske’s repeat as further evidence of its mastery of the late fall schedule. Particularly Phoenix, where their cars are “simply unbeatable,” according to JGR’s Chris Gabehart.

These postseason heroics of 2024 set the tone for 2025. Logano and the Penske camp may have struggled at Kansas (after an accident dropped both Austin Cindric and Logano well down the order). However, their ability to peak at the opportune moment remains a legitimate threat as the playoffs wind down.

The fork in Toyota and Penske’s playoff journey

Sunday’s Kansas race delivered the sort of unpredictable drama that defines the modern playoff era. With all top Toyotas – Hamlin, Wallace, and Bell – at the front in the final restart, the table was set for a potentially game-changing points swing for JGR and 23XI. Bubba Wallace, fighting for his playoff life, needed a win that would have shaken up the cutline and forced Penske’s Joey Logano into a must-perform scenario at the ROVAL.

Denny Hamlin, by racing Wallace hard (and controversially colliding with him), not only cost his protégé that win but also (unfortunately) allowed Hendrick’s Chase Elliott, as well as Team Penske, to pad their playoff positions. Had Wallace crossed the line first, Logano and his Penske teammates would have entered the next round outside the top eight.

That would have placed immense pressure on them at tracks like the Charlotte Roval, where Penske traditionally underperforms relative to HMS and JGR. NASCAR insiders have often pointed out that JGR’s speed at technical circuits and Hendrick’s all-around roster give them the edge at the ROVAL and Homestead.

On the other hand, Penske’s edge shines at Phoenix and the shorter ovals. As Chris Gabehart noted after the New Hampshire playoff race, “At one-mile tracks…with this package, the Penske cars were completely untouchable again.” For instance, Team Penske has dominated recent Phoenix races, winning three of the last four Cup Series finales. Joey Logano clinched victories in 2022 and 2024, while Penske drivers have consistently secured top-five finishes, underscoring their elite preparation and execution at the track.

But the Kansas outcome meant that, instead of sweating the cutline, Joey Logano remains above it, while Wallace and Reddick now face elimination. This preserves Penske’s shot at Phoenix, where their preparation and race-day execution have become the standard for the entire garage.

Did Denny Hamlin do Penske a favor?

So the question remains — Did Denny Hamlin truly spoon-feed Roger Penske another potential championship? You could say that’s an exaggeration. Hamlin certainly wasn’t making moves with Penske’s fortunes in mind. He was just going for his own win, chasing personal milestones, and fighting for points. But objectively, the Kansas drama made Penske’s playoff path indirectly far smoother than it might have been.

In the elimination era, one moment of “hard racing” can change the championship, and this year, that moment may have kept Penske’s dynasty alive, at least for now. The lesson is as old as NASCAR itself. Every rivalry, error, or act of aggression runs deeper than a single race. Sometimes, it gets to shape who gets to hold the Cup at year’s end.