The rainy conditions in Greater Indianapolis have caught everyone in the NASCAR world off guard, including Kyle Larson. It looks like dreams of Double Duty may have to wait till next year. While Kyle Larson eagerly awaits the Green Flag in Indianapolis, fans are concerned about his future at the NASCAR Cup Series. That’s not to say his future as a driver is in jeopardy. It’s just that his chance to become a two-time Cup Series champion might be.

Will Larson be issued a waiver by NASCAR? Will he be eligible for the playoffs now that he’s missing the 600? All these questions seem to plague the fans watching these developments closely. With ace Xfinity driver Justin Allgaier stepping up to fill in for Larson in the #5 Chevy, the whisp of clouds appears to have finally cleared. And with that, Larson’s hopes of becoming the fifth driver to complete The Double have started to disappear, too.

FOX reporter Bob Pockrass shared on X, “Allgaier was getting in Larson’s car. He expects to start the 600, although there is possibility of rain here tonight, too. NASCAR won’t make a public statement on a waiver until Larson misses start of 600, but can’t imagine HMS making this decision without knowing it.” The thing is, HMS knew there would be a possibility of rain that would delay the start of the Indy 500. While that meant possibly missing the Coca-Cola 600, both Larson and Jeff Gordon clarified that staying in Indianapolis was their priority. However, the team hasn’t yet made a waiver request.

So, what’s the strategy behind Rick Hendrick & Co.’s maneuver? According to the NASCAR Rule Book, drivers must start all points-paying races (26 this season) to be eligible for the playoffs. However, if ever there are any “extenuating circumstances,” the governing body can grant drivers a waiver. Considering Hendrick Motorsports and Arrow McLaren have been planning Kyle Larson’s Indy 500 debut for almost 2 years, his increasingly likely absence in Charlotte will most probably count as an extenuating circumstance – given the weather conditions – enough to get him a waiver and keep his championship hopes alive.

Hendrick Motorsports is reputed for its strategic planning. Hence, it is careful not to make any advancements without confirmation from NASCAR. This scenario again adds weight to the complexity of the NASCAR rules and their dependency on timing and other weather conditions for the result. Most importantly, the possibility of a waiver for Kyle Larson has now become the focal point. HMS and its strategy can be useful for other teams in the future and help them navigate the tough regulatory landscape of NASCAR.

After all this hype, it’s indeed sad to see this happen. The entire NASCAR community, along with veterans, were rooting for Kyle to get the job done. But as fate would have it, everybody has to wait at least until next year for this feat to come through. Thus giving rise to mixed fan reactions.

Fans believe Kyle Larson getting a waiver isn’t even “questionable,” or is it?

Fans all over have been sputtering their opinions regarding the subject, filled with different temperaments. One commented, “Larson stayed in Indy because he already knows he will get that waiver,” implying that NASCAR will be lenient towards Larson. Remember how NASCAR pushed back the All-Star race by 15 minutes last weekend to let the #5 driver get ready after he flew in right after qualifying fifth for the Indy 500? 

Similarly, another one wrote, “He’ll 100% get a waiver. Idk why it’s questionable,” Kyle Larson running the Indy 500 is indeed a big deal. But not all fans feel the case would warrant a waiver. “He shouldn’t get a waiver for making a conscious decision to miss a race,” said one fan, reflecting a more hard-lined interpretation of NASCAR’s standards. This skepticism was lightened by a humorous take from another fan, who commented, “It’s more likely that Jeff Gordon wins the 600 in a shopping cart than Larson not getting the waiver,” underscoring the widespread belief that NASCAR will indeed grant the waiver. 

The speculation included some possible strategic plays. An example is: “Interesting scenario possibly. Larson runs the 500, Allgaier starts the 600, then the storm hits around 8 or so, and Larson gets in the car after the red flag when he arrives.” That is an example of how racing is so unpredictable. Teams have to encounter different scenarios all the time, making them as smart as the system.

And, of course, there was another reason that was pointed out: points and standings. One fan even questioned, “What about points? Does Kyle get any points if he doesn’t start? Is HMS really cool with losing the regular season points lead for this?” Coming into this weekend, Kyle Larson was a slam-dunk candidate for the playoffs. Apart from leading the points table, his two wins in Las Vegas and Kansas all but guaranteed his spot in the post-season. Considering he’s likely to miss the 600, that’ll also potentially result in him losing the points lead.

Even though HMS knew this was a possibility, they ensured everyone knew that the Indy 500 was their priority. This goes on to show the importance of Indy 500 for the team and Kyle Larson. It also shows how sometimes even the most meticulous planning may fail. Welcome to NASCAR, where unpredictability is the norm.