The United States Grand Prix has had a rich and varied history in Formula 1, beginning with its early days in 1959, Florida, when the race was won by a young Bruce McLaren. The race returned to COTA in 2012, seeing dramatic moments, including Lewis Hamilton clinching his third World Championship in 2015. And now, it is back again with extra vigor and excitement.

But who will win it? The question’s ignited intense debate across the motorsport world, even drawing commentary and predictions from prominent figures in NASCAR. And this year’s Grand Prix is particularly crucial, as it forms the critical stage in Formula 1’s Drivers’ Championship battle with Oscar Piastri, Lando Norris, Max Verstappen, George Russell, and Charles Leclerc still in contention.

Who NASCAR’s biggest names are betting on

The primary pick for the win at COTA is based on the consistent strength of Max Verstappen and Red Bull Racing, despite a mid-season slump. Verstappen has been historically dominant at the Austin Track, clinching 3 consecutive victories there from 2021 to 2023. He currently stands third in the Drivers’ standings with 273 points, 4 wins, and 9 podiums.

Katherine Legge stated in favor of the Dutch driver, “Max! It looks like they have sorted the car at Red Bull now and he’s back on it.” While Parker Kligerman added to that sentiment, exclaiming, “Max Verstappen” has his choice for the U.S. GP. The third driver supporting Verstappen was the Melon Man himself, Ross Chastain, saying, “Gotta go with Max.”

But the strongest challenge to Verstappen comes from the resurgent McLaren team, which has already wrapped up the 2025 Constructors’ Championship, shifting the spotlight entirely onto the intra-team battle between Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris. Piastri currently heads the standings with 336 points, 7 wins, and 14 podiums, while Norris trails slightly behind his teammate with 314 points, 5 wins, and 14 podiums.

Hailee Deegan voiced her support for Norris, saying, “Hmm, I think Lando!” Supporting her viewpoint was NASCAR Fox broadcaster Jamie Little, exclaiming, “Norris!” While Cup Series driver, Noah Gragson, added, “Give me Lando!” tying the number of votes with that of Verstappen.

On the other hand, Piastri was supported by Ty Gibbs, stating, “I think Oscar will win.” But NASCAR veteran, Kyle Busch, chose to take the advice of his son, Brexton, exclaiming, “Brexton says Oscar!” Another judgment came from the OG NASCAR star Jimmie Johnson, who wanted to be neutral in his decision, saying, “One of the McLaren cars,” also tying the tally with Verstappen and Norris.

While the title battle centers on Verstappen and the McLarens, other contenders, notably George Russell for Mercedes and Charles Leclerc for Ferrari, pose a significant threat. Russell, having recently won the Singapore Grand Prix, is looking for a second consecutive victory and is highly rated for his consistency over long stints.

Furthermore, the 2024 US Grand Prix was won by Charles Leclerc, breaking Verstappen’s streak, which demonstrates the circuit’s potential for unpredictable outcomes.

How COTA heat will force an ultra-conservative strategy

The official Heat Hazard declaration for the 2025 US Grand Prix by the FIA, triggered by a forecasted heat index above 31°C or 88°F during the sprint race weekend, significantly elevates the physical and strategic demands of the event at COTA. This ruling, which follows similar action at the Singapore Grand Prix, necessitates that all cars be fitted with a mandatory driver cooling system as per Article 26.19 of the Sporting Regulations.

The extreme temperatures will push driver endurance to its absolute limit, exacerbating the already intense thermal load within the cockpit, which can approach 60°C. Heat stress directly impacts an athlete’s cognitive and physical functions, increasing the likelihood of slower reaction times, impaired decision-making, and late-race errors, echoing the safety concerns that arose from the grueling 2023 Qatar Grand Prix.

The introduction of the Driver Cooling System presents a fascinating strategic and technical subplot. While the car must carry the cooling hardware, drivers have the option to wear a special cooling vest connected to the system and take constant ice baths ahead of the race weekend.

George Russell, a proponent of the measure, has previously stated, “When you’re racing in 90% humidity and the cockpit [temperatures] are getting on for 60 degrees, it’s a bit of a sauna inside the car, so I think we all welcome it.”

Beyond driver performance, the heat hazard places immense pressure on tire management, adding a critical layer of strategy. High ambient and track temperatures dramatically accelerate thermal degradation, pushing the Pirelli tires outside their optimal working window. When tire temperatures exceed approximately 120°C, the rubber can suffer from blistering or graining, significantly reducing grip and increasing wear rate, with teams having to opt for a 2 pit stop strategy.

This thermal balancing act could easily be the decisive factor in the 2025 US Grand Prix.