Joe Gibbs Racing showcased unparalleled dominance in the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Round of 16, achieving a historic sweep of the opening 3 races. Chase Briscoe led the charge, winning the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. Denny Hamlin followed it with a blistering 59th career Cup Series win at World Wide Technology Raceway, Gateway. Christopher Bell finished it off with a commanding victory at Bristol Motor Speedway, clinching his 1st win at the track. However, that momentum did not seamlessly transition into the Round of 12 for JGR.

At New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Ryan Blaney took the checkered flag, with all 3 JGR drivers finishing outside the top-5 positions. Then, at Kansas Speedway, Chase Elliott finished 1st with a historic last-lap pass, depriving Hamlin of another playoff win. Finally, at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval, the team’s performance was underwhelming, with none of the JGR drivers finishing in the top 10. Now, with predictions out for the Round of 8, JGR seems to be in a tough spot heading towards the Championship 4 finale at Phoenix, with the defending champion, Joey Logano, narrowly slipping into the Round of 8.

JGR’s playoff dominance at risk as predictions signal trouble

Auto Racing Analytics recently released its latest projections for Round 3 of the 2025 NASCAR Playoffs, following a strong track record in earlier rounds. The algorithm correctly predicted 4 out of 4 outcomes in Round 1 and 3 out of 4 in Round 2, giving fans a reason to pay attention to its latest insights. According to the algorithm, Kyle Larson, William Byron, and Ryan Blaney emerge as projected winners in Round 3. While the model sees Larson and Blaney as “reasonably heavy favorites” for the races at Las Vegas and Martinsville, it expressed caution about Byron’s outlook at Talladega, labeling it as less secure. Let’s look at their stats one by one.

Kyle Larson has demonstrated exceptional performance at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, with 3 wins, 8 top-5 finishes, and 13 top-10 finishes in 18 starts. His average finish at the track is 9.4, and he has led 690 laps, showcasing his dominance on intermediate tracks. “Extremely hard,” Larson once said of his Vegas race in 2024, which included a slight front-end blemish from debris after Austin Dillon’s crash in Stage 1.

“We had a bad end of the first stage and then had to fix the damage that we had. Then, I was like, ‘OK, we’re going to have a good day here.’ I think I got to eighth before the green-flag cycle. I was much better than the guys in front of us and thought we would finish the end of the stage in third or fourth and then we had the biggest mess of a pit stop I think I’ve ever seen.” But Larson remains confident of his current stance in the playoff standings with +4 points above the cutline.

On the other hand, his Hendrick Motorsports teammate, William Byron, has had a consistent presence at Talladega Superspeedway, with 7 top-10 finishes in 15 starts. His average finish at the track is 13.7, and he has led 119 laps. In the 2025 season, Byron finished 3rd in the Jack Link’s 500 at Talladega, demonstrating his capability on superspeedways. As a two-time Daytona 500 winner, he has the skills to unpack a strong weekend. But Talladega remains a nut he has yet to crack.

“[It] seemed like some kind of steering issue,” Byron admitted after the April 2025 Talladega race. “The guys did a great job getting it to where I could drive it there in the third stage… To be able to overcome that is a testament to what our team is this year and the things we can do.” But a Team Penske rival is right behind him in line to win another playoff race.

Ryan Blaney has shown strong performances at Martinsville Speedway, with multiple top-5 finishes and a high driver rating. In the 2025 season, Blaney finished 11th at Martinsville, continuing his solid record at the track. “Really proud of the effort from our 12 group after the way our weekend started. The strategy played into our favor early to gain back some track position and the changes we made throughout the day allowed us to maintain in the top-10. Just needed a little more for the final run there but a solid day to get us back in the right direction,” he said after the March 2025 race at Martinsville, making the predictions fall short of including any of the JGR competitors.

As of the latest standings, Denny Hamlin leads the points with 4,036, followed closely by Ryan Blaney at 4,034, and Kyle Larson at 4,032. William Byron is also in contention with 4,032 points. But the predictions show the No. 5 leading with +34 points, No. 12 with +31, No. 24 with +13, and No. 11 with +11, while the No. 9 is shown below the cutline with -11 points, No. 20 with -12, No. 19 with -35, and No. 22 with -36 post the Round of 8. Therefore, the upcoming races at Las Vegas, Talladega, and Martinsville are pivotal for the drivers as their consistency and experience will be crucial to navigating the challenges ahead.

But some NASCAR veterans argue that NASCAR’s playoff format diminishes season-long consistency, outright rejecting its implications.

Denny Hamlin and Richard Petty push back against NASCAR’s playoff system

In July, Denny Hamlin weighed in on the ongoing discussion about NASCAR’s playoff system for 2026, asserting, “One race is just not the way to do it.” His comment came amid rumors of a potential shake-up to the playoff format, highlighting concerns that a few races could disproportionately determine the championship. Hamlin also pointed to NBC’s influence in shaping the playoffs and stressed the importance of using a larger sample size to crown a deserving champion.

Richard Petty, whose 7 Cup Series titles came under the traditional points system, echoed Hamlin’s viewpoint. Reflecting on the merits of a season-long championship, Petty stated, “I still think that to have a champion of NASCAR, that is a year-long championship. It’s not a one-race championship; it’s not a four-race championship. If we run 36 races, who is the best out of those 36? They should be the champion.” His perspective emphasizes consistency and performance across all races rather than peaking for a handful of events.

Critics of the current format cite recent playoff outcomes. Ryan Blaney’s 2023 season saw him qualify for the playoffs with a single regular-season win, later capturing two playoff victories to claim the championship. Similarly, Joey Logano, despite a modest 2024 regular season, surged during the playoffs with 3 wins and ultimately secured the title at Phoenix. While these clutch performances are celebrated, Hamlin and Petty’s argument spotlight concerns that the system may undervalue season-long excellence in favor of short-term playoff dominance.