With just two races left before the NASCAR Playoffs kick off, Kyle Busch finds himself in unfamiliar territory. He’s on the outside looking in. The two-time Cup champ sits 102 points below the cutline, and at this stage, points alone won’t save him. He needs a win. Richmond has historically been one of his better tracks, the kind of place where Busch has pulled off clutch performances before.

But heading into this weekend, he’s not just focused on finding speed or nailing the perfect setup. Instead, there’s one more battle brewing that could shape his chances under the lights. This is a battle that has nothing to do with horsepower and everything to do with Goodyear’s strategy for tires. And as usual, Busch isn’t shy about letting his opinion be heard.

Kyle Busch’s tire frustration at Richmond

When asked by Bob Pockrass if teams had enough rubber to play with this weekend, Busch didn’t mince words. “I don’t think so,” he replied. Cup teams are allocated eight new sets of tires plus one transferred from qualifying for the upcoming Richmond race. Now this translates to approximately 44 to 45 laps per set. Unlike at Watkins Glen, where extra sets were available, this weekend’s tighter supply leaves less room to gamble strategically.

“I was kind of weirded out by that,” Kyle Busch admitted, pointing out the inconsistency. “Maybe you could have a little bit more options to play with. If you had nine or ten sets, guys could triple stop the second stage or triple stop the third stage, and try to make up some time and be on offense a little bit versus being on defense.”

Fewer tires mean teams, including Busch’s, will have to adjust their pit road strategies carefully, with most likely opting for conservative approaches to preserve their sets. For Busch, who sits 102 points below the playoff cutline, that’s far from ideal. He doesn’t just need a solid finish. As you know, he needs an outright win to keep his postseason hopes alive. Limited tire sets make it harder to take aggressive chances on strategy, which could box him into the kind of defensive racing (and lower positions) he wants to avoid.

And Busch isn’t alone in his concern. Fellow veteran Brad Keselowski recently noted that “the math ain’t mathing” with Richmond’s tire allotment. He warned that the softer compounds may not hold up beyond 45 laps. In a race where tire fall-off is already a major factor, the lack of flexibility could turn the 0.75-mile short track into a chess match rather than a slugfest.

However, this isn’t the first time Richmond has experimented with tire strategy. If you remember, last year, NASCAR introduced both “prime” and “option” compounds to spice up short-track strategy. But teams have since urged clearer tire guidelines to better manage the race’s long laps.

For Busch, who needs every edge he can get, the limited tire allotment adds another layer of pressure. Without enough sets to attack, especially in such a tight playoff chase, every pit stop, every run becomes a calculation of offense versus defense. And for a driver with little margin for error, that tension could very well define his Richmond outcome.

Rough road ahead for Kyle Busch

Kyle Busch’s weekend got off to a rocky start at Richmond Raceway as he wound up qualifying 28th. This is a far cry from the kind of starting spot you’d hope for when a win is an absolute must to salvage a playoff bid. Busch put up a time of 22.679 seconds. This pushed him well into the back half of the field. Now, the No. 8 Richard Childress Racing entry faces a steep climb just to get into contention.

Contrast that to polesitter Ryan Preece, who lit up the timing board with a blistering 22.244-second lap to snare the Busch Light Pole Award. This is the type of advantage that not only delivers cleaner air and strategic leverage but also a massive confidence boost. Something Kyle Busch would have loved.

The disparity is glaring; over 0.4 seconds might not sound like much, but on a tight, short track like Richmond, it translates into multiple car-lengths and a dramatically different racing scenario. While Busch is forced to navigate traffic, dodge lapped cars, and manage tire wear amid chaos, his rivals up front control the pace and pit strategy with far greater flexibility.

Kyle Busch has dug himself into a hole this weekend, but history proves he can climb out. Back in 2018, he stormed from 32nd on the grid to victory lane at Richmond, showcasing just how dangerous he can be when everything clicks. However, it will be a monumental task this weekend, given the added playoff pressure. As the field prepares to pack it in under the lights, the question looms large: Will this mark the second consecutive year that Kyle Busch fails to punch his ticket to the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs?