Rewind your clocks a few years back. The year is 2021. The world was still feeling the effects of COVID-19, Joe Biden became the 46th president, and in the NASCAR world, Kyle Larson was untouchable. Week after week, the No. 5 car seemed glued to the front, slicing through the field with a calm precision that made victory look effortless. Ten wins, a championship, and a reputation as one of NASCAR’s most complete drivers. Now, that was Larson at his peak. His Phoenix triumph that year felt like the beginning of a dynasty, a driver and team in perfect sync.

But the sport has changed since then.

The next-gen car reset the playing field, turning sure-fire dominance into a frustrating puzzle. Wins have become rarer, margins tighter, and championships? Disappeared completely. Yet as the 2025 finale approaches, Larson isn’t rattled. If anything, he sounds more confident than ever, carrying the quiet conviction of a man who’s found something worth believing in again.

Kyle Larson poised for championship success

Recently, Kyle Larson openly acknowledged the challenges he faced on short tracks during the early years of the Next Gen car era. His struggles with the short-flat track package often hampered his performance. For instance, he was winless at short tracks in 2022 (the year of next-gen introduction). Larson finally managed to win at Richmond in 2023; however, he has since produced inconsistent results at these venues.

But then came the 2025 season, and Larson demonstrated sharp improvement with strong performances at short tracks. This includes his dominating performance at Bristol, where he led 411 of 500 laps and swept all stages. “I think finally in the next-gen era, I think we’ve gotten our short-track stuff better. Short flat track package better,” Larson said, reflecting on his performance.

Speaking about his chances of winning the championship in the next-gen era, Larson cited his strong performances at tracks with similar characteristics to Phoenix Raceway, such as Bristol, Gateway, and New Hampshire. “I think, we went to Gateway and were super strong. New Hampshire, we were really good and Phoenix is somewhat similar to those places,” he mentioned.

Indeed! At Gateway, Larson qualified second and put up a strong performance throughout the race. He led 52 laps, came second and fourth in Stage 1 and Stage 2, respectively, and eventually finished 12th. Similarly, in New Hampshire, despite qualifying 16th, Larson managed to move up the order throughout the race, finishing seventh eventually. Phoenix, known for its flat, one-mile oval, shares traits with these venues, giving Larson confidence in his team’s preparedness for the final title race.

“I think we’ll have a better opportunity to win the championship than we’ve ever had in the Next Gen era,” Larson said.

His optimism stems from experience and hard-earned progress, despite an unusual winless streak extending back to May’s double attempt at the Indy 500 and Coke 600. As the only former champion in the Championship 4, having won the 2021 finale at Phoenix, Larson carries the mantle of defending his championship with renewed determination.

Kyle Larson prepares for Phoenix with Mt. Lemmon climb

As Kyle Larson prepares for the Phoenix finale, he took an inspiring physical challenge as the championship weekend began. As you might have figured out, Larson took a cycling trip to Mt. Lemmon near Phoenix. He joined Truck Series drivers Daniel Hemric and Connor Moscak in conquering the 9,159-foot peak (the highest point in Santa Catalina Mountains) in Arizona’s Coronado National Forest.

Sharing images on Instagram, Larson captioned his achievement, “Climbed Mt Lemmon today! Hopefully not the last mountain we climb this week! LFG.” Mt. Lemmon’s elevation and rugged terrain served as a metaphor for the challenge ahead. Larson’s climb embodies the uphill battle at Phoenix Raceway’s 312-lap race, as he battles Denny Hamlin, Chase Briscoe, and teammate William Byron.

Denny Hamlin is the favorite at around +340 to +375, reflecting his hunger for his first title. Kyle Larson, the 2021 champion, is right behind at +450 to +500. William Byron holds odds near +400 to +430, while Chase Briscoe is the underdog at +600 to +700. The tightly bunched odds reflect a highly competitive finale.

The weather forecast for the November 2 race predicts ideal conditions. Sunday will feature predominantly sunny skies with temperatures reaching a high of 85°F at race start. Light winds of 3 mph and a 0% chance of rain are expected, ensuring a dry, fast track for the 312-lap event. These favorable weather conditions should provide an optimal environment for drivers, including Kyle Larson, and fans alike.

The race is set to start at 3:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Sunday, and all eyes will once again be on the No. 5 Chevy. Larson has been here before. Cool under pressure, calm in chaos, and ready when it counts the most. But still winless with the next-gen car. His climb up Mt. Lemmon might’ve been symbolic, but the real mountain waits at Phoenix Raceway.