Kyle Petty has never shied away from calling it like he sees it in NASCAR’s high-stakes moments. Recently, the veteran analyst turned his sharp eye to the Round of 8 chaos after Talladega left Team Penske’s Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney scrambling 38 and 47 points below the cutline, respectively. With Joe Gibbs Racing drivers Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe already locked in, and Christopher Bell sitting pretty at +37, Petty senses a possible JGR plan brewing. And a sensible one at that, seeing Team Penske’s dominance in the final in recent years.

Logano and Blaney know Martinsville’s short track favors their Ford setups, but facing a fired-up JGR trio will not be easy. As Petty predicts, JGR’s deeper planning is fueling the Martinsville clash to keep Penske out of the final showdown. Let’s hear what Petty actually means by his predictions.

JGR’s defensive game plan takes shape at Martinsville

Kyle Petty laid it bare on the PRN podcast: “Because you’re going to have to go, I think to win Martinsville, you’re going to have to go through Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, and Chase Briscoe, because I think they’re going to come loaded for bear to play defense to keep you from winning a race and keep you out of it,” Petty said.

Hamlin, Bell, and Briscoe are in a defensive position at Martinsville. Can they stop Penske from reaching Phoenix? #NASCAR #Martinsville pic.twitter.com/XVvgyrMw6E

— PRN (@PRNlive) October 22, 2025

This isn’t idle chatter; Hamlin‘s six Martinsville wins and Bell’s two recent Phoenix triumphs make JGR a nightmare matchup. With Briscoe fresh off his Talladega victory that clinched his spot, the trio’s momentum stems from a season where they’ve led over 1979 laps combined. Petty’s take underscores how JGR, after years of near misses, now channels that frustration into calculated aggression to protect their final 4 lock-ins.

Petty doubled down on the stakes, painting Team Penske as the ultimate bogeyman for Hamlin’s crew. “They don’t want a Penske car in Phoenix. That’s their worst nightmare, to have a Penske car come to Phoenix. So they’re going to play defense, and they’re going to play it good, I believe,” he added.

Team Penske has owned the desert finale, with Logano claiming titles in 2022 and 2024 and Blaney in 2023, three straight championships where no one touched their speed. For JGR, letting a Ford sneak through means settling for runner-up scraps. This defensive mindset echoes the 2023 playoffs, when JGR’s internal teamwork helped Bell advance but couldn’t dethrone Blaney’s dominance.

Chase Briscoe echoed similar thoughts in the Dale Jr. Download podcast, admitting, “I think it’s no secret that, you know, the last three years they went to Phoenix and just dominated. Nobody could even run with them. So, I mean, yeah, from a personal standpoint, I do not want a Penske car to go there.”

The Athletic’s Jordan Bianchi nailed the ripple effect: “There’s a legitimate fear that if the 12 or the 22 get to Phoenix with a shot at racing for the championship, we’re racing for second place. That’s it. How these guys manage this situation is going to be absolutely fascinating because the Joe Gibbs Racing teammates that are in, they’re all-in on keeping one of the Penske guys out.”

Bianchi’s insight draws from JGR’s data dives, showing Penske’s average of ~98-lap lead over the last three finals. With Hamlin’s veteran savvy, 39 Martinsville starts, and 27 top-10s, he and Briscoe could shadow Logano’s line or box Blaney in traffic, turning the half-mile into a strategic chessboard.

As Martinsville heats up, Hamlin’s trying to dissect every weakness that Penske’s got.

Hamlin exposes Penske’s fuel gamble gone wrong

Denny Hamlin pulled no punches on his Actions Detrimental podcast, zeroing in on Team Penske’s risky fuel plays that backfired spectacularly at Talladega. “You know, if we ever get into overtime, 99% of the time, Penske cars will not make it. I know seven overtimes. Nashville is different, I’m talking about on Superspeedways, they cut it. They cut it way, way short,” Hamlin said.

This flaw isn’t new; Logano and Blaney stretched their tanks with 17 laps left in the final stage, starting strong but sputtering to 16th and 23rd finishes. It’s a tactic that’s won them stages before, like Blaney’s Daytona fuel-mileage masterclass earlier this year. But superspeedway chaos, with its late cautions and overtimes, amplifies the danger.

Hamlin drove the point home: “Eventually, the law of averages says that, okay, you can only be short so much before eventually you’re going to catch a caution that’s not going to be advantageous for you and you’re going to it’s going to burn you and, and it I don’t think it changed the. I don’t think a Penske car was going to win going into that two laps to go.”

That Talladega burn, echoing Logano’s 2024 August Daytona spin after a 45-lap fuel stretch, dropped them deep below the cutline, forcing Martinsville heroics. For a team that’s thrived on precision engineering, these misfires highlight how thin the margin is on 2.66-mile beasts, where one yellow flag flips the script. Hamlin’s critique, born from his own fuel-savvy runs like Bristol 2023, reminds everyone: in the playoffs, survival favors the steady, not the cutters.