For the past three years, Team Penske has been ruling the NASCAR Cup Series with consecutive titles, thanks to Joey Logano’s grit and Ryan Blaney’s precision. After surviving the earlier rounds, they were hit with a tough one at Las Vegas. Ryan Blaney saw an early Stage 1 exit due to a tire blowout, and with Logano’s P6, both drivers share the bottom spots, leaving their title shots on life support heading into Talladega.

Now, the pressure mounts for these Ford stars to deliver under fire. And nothing less than a win will keep their championship hopes alive, yet history shows Penske thrives when the stakes hit rock bottom. So let’s look into how a win is a must in the next couple of races.

How has Team Penske’s playoff path narrowed to one option?

The Round of 8 kicked off at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with high hopes for Penske, but a single lap flipped the script. Blaney’s No. 12 Ford suffered a blown left-front tire on lap 72, slamming into the wall and ending his day with a 38th finish, which lands him last among playoff drivers. Logano salvaged a solid sixth in the No. 22, grabbing points in both stages, but it wasn’t enough to crawl above the cutline.

Now, with Talladega’s draft-fueled unpredictability next, projections from Racing Insights predict Blaney for a fifth-place finish and Logano for 13th. It’s decent, but far from secure.

That Las Vegas hit left no room for half-measures. Dale Earnhardt Jr. laid it out bluntly: “Blaney’s got to win Talladega, he’s got to win Martinsville, one of the two,” given the 31-point hole. Logano’s 24-point deficit demands the same firepower, as pointing in against the top four seems out of reach.

Both drivers have three Talladega wins each, but recent form—Blaney’s two straight DNFs there—means survival alone won’t cut it. Both drivers have to go all guns blazing if they want to race for the championship.

As the smoke clears from Vegas, the real question lingers: what derailed Penske so early in this round?

What went wrong in the Round of 8 for Team Penske?

Las Vegas exposed handling issues that haunted Penske‘s Fords from the green flag. Blaney radioed early about a loose setup, but adjustments during green-flag stops couldn’t tame it before the tire shredded. “I’m not overjoyed, tell you that,” Blaney told reporters post-race, summing up the frustration of digging out of a repeat deficit like last year’s 39th-place crash there.

Logano battled similar looseness in corners, dropping track position in stage three despite a smart two-tire call that vaulted him to the front row late. The decline snowballed from strategy calls that didn’t fully pay off. Logano’s crew chief, Paul Wolfe, gambled on fresh right sides during the final caution, gaining spots but lacking the push to hold the lead. Alex Bowman‘s No. 48 nudged ahead, leaving Logano to defend for sixth.

Blaney’s early exit meant zero stage points, widening the gap to Hamlin, who sits at the top spot after the Vegas win. Earnhardt Jr. called it a “bad spot,” noting how the best eight drivers making comebacks via points is nearly impossible now.

With the rearview full of what-ifs, Penske’s past proves they don’t stay down long; could Talladega spark a familiar rally?

How has Team Penske previously turned the tables in a do-or-die moment?

Blaney‘s blueprint for survival dates back to 2023’s Round of 8, where a sixth at Vegas left him chasing. He charged to second at Homestead, then dominated Martinsville with his first “grandfather clock” win, punching a ticket to Phoenix and the championship.

That Martinsville masterclass, leading 111 laps, echoed into 2024, when another Vegas flop (32nd) had him 31 points out entering the final round. Blaney rebounded with a runner-up at Homestead, then clinched advancement again at Martinsville, leading the last lap before a heartbreaking last-second pass.

Logano’s clutch gene shines too, snagging his 2022 title after scraping into the final four via aggressive Martinsville moves. Penske’s edge? Track records that turn pressure into fuel: Blaney’s 4.0 average finish over the last seven Martinsville starts leads all the drivers in the playoffs. But these do-or-die flips weren’t luck; they came from calculated risks, like Blaney’s patient pack racing at drafting ovals.

Those triumphs set a high bar, but what do they signal for Penske’s blueprint next year?

What does this say about Team Penske’s 2025 strategy?

This playoff pinch forces Penske to double down on aggression for 2025, prioritizing super-speedway alliances and tire management after Vegas’ tire woes. Blaney hinted at it, eyeing NASCAR’s updated Damaged Vehicle Policy as a Talladega lifeline: no more time limits on garage repairs mean wrecked playoff cars can chase points again. “It creates a race within the race,” he said, stressing quick crew decisions to minimize DNF damage in the 40-car melee.

Logano’s steady sixth shows setup tweaks payoff, but the minus-24 math screams bolder calls, like his two-tire pit that nearly stole the show. Owner Roger Penske’s crew will lean on data from three straight titles, fine-tuning for volatility. As Blaney put it, channeling Macho Man Randy Savage, “The cream will rise to the top, and I hope that is what we can use for this weekend.” For 2025, that means stacking wins early to dodge these late scrambles.