NASCAR Playoff Picture: What Each Driver Must Do to Advance to the Next Round?

The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs kicked off with the sport’s traditional intensity, opening with the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington on August 31 and moving straight into the pressure cooker of Gateway the following weekend. The postseason still follows the 16-driver, 4-round elimination format, and the Round of 16 schedule: Darlington, World Wide Technology Raceway (Gateway), and Bristol, which meant teams had almost no margin for error out of the gate. With the frantic opening set, the first two races already separated the steady from the shaken.

By the time the green flag fell at Gateway, a handful of drivers had done what matters most in the playoffs: win or bank enough points to breathe easier. Race winners clinch automatic advancement, and Chase Briscoe’s Darlington victory immediately locked him into the Round of 12. Subsequent results through Gateway reshuffled the standings and confirmed additional advances as Denny Hamlin solidified his position through his historic win at the Enjoy Illinois 300 at WWTR for himself and his team. With Bristol looming as the Round 16 of the elimination race, margins have shrunk, and the drama is about to spike.

Why Bristol could flip the grid

According to Fox Sports‘ Bob Pockrass, Briscoe and Hamlin’s early wins left everyone else fighting for the remaining ten spots before the Round of 12. Kyle Larson sits in the best shape, with a 60-point cushion, only needing a handful of points at Bristol. Larson only needs to finish 29th or better (8 points) to lock in on points alone. Bubba Wallace, riding a +50 margin, finds himself in similar territory. A clean race with a mid-pack finish should be enough to carry him through. For Wallace, the challenge is balancing conservative strategy with the desire to compete for a top finish at a short track where chaos often rules. He needs 18 points, roughly a 19th-place finish, to secure his position.

Ryan Blaney and William Byron also sit comfortably above the cutline at +42 and +39, respectively. Both drivers have shown consistency throughout the season, and at Bristol, they don’t need to swing for the fences; they just need to avoid mistakes. Blaney, in particular, has often excelled at short tracks, so stage points could put him out of reach early in the night. Byron, on the other hand, has leaned on strong qualifying and clean execution. A top-15 finish likely advances both, though Byron’s path is a little tighter than Blaney’s.

Behind them, Tyler Reddick (+37) and Christopher Bell (+32) have some margin of error but not as much wiggle room. Reddick’s strength has been his ability to stay up front and score stage points, which will be critical at Bristol, where track position is everything. Bell has been a playoff underdog in past years, but has proven he can rise to the moment. For both drivers, a clean race in the top 10 is their safest path to survival. The tension then ramps up with Chase Elliott (+28), Joey Logano (+21), and Ross Chastain (+19).

All three sit on the bubble, safe for now, but one bad pit cycle or a rash could knock them out. Elliott needs at least 40 points, potentially through a solid finish plus stage points, to feel secure. Logano, the 2022 Cup champion, is no stranger to playoff pressure and thrives in must-perform situations. Chastain, meanwhile, has been aggressive all year but will need to balance that with patience at Bristol. Stage points could decide their fate, and one misstep could bring Austin Cindric or even Austin Dillon back into the mix. These three are walking a fine line between safety and danger heading into Bristol.

Austin Cindric sits just 11 points out, and given his consistency in this round, he is still very much alive. A top-15 at Bristol could potentially vault him ahead of Logano or Chastain if they falter. But below the cutline, the picture gets dire. Austin Dillon, sitting 11 points below, must essentially run perfectly, chasing stage points and going deep in the top-10, to have a realistic chance. Shane van Gisbergen (-15) and Alex Bowman (-35) are in elimination territory, too; both likely need a win to advance. SVG’s relative inexperience on short ovals makes this even steeper climbing, while Bowman’s season has been marred by inconsistency despite flashes of playoff brilliance in years past.

Finally, Josh Berry (-45) faces the steepest climb. As a rookie, Bristol should be familiar territory given his Xfinity Series background, but the math is brutal. He needs a win to advance. Even a second-place finish with maximum stage points won’t be enough if those ahead of him hold steady. Bristol has produced surprise winners before, but the odds are stacked against Berry, especially after his recent wreck with Elliott at Illinois. However, drivers in desperation mode sometimes race with nothing to lose, and that can shake up the playoff picture.

Which format truly defines a champion?

NASCAR’s playoff system, introduced in 2004 as the Chase for the Championship, remains the official method to crown a champion. Yet, the debate with the old points-based system continues. Many prefer the Winston Cup style, where consistency across the season mattered more than just wins. The alternative standings, tracked by the @NWCS_Standings account, highlight just how different the title race looks under the traditional format.

As per the Winston Cup standings updated on September 8th after the Gateway, Chase Elliott led with 3727 points thanks to his remarkable consistency. The account posted, “Chase Briscoe closes to 8 points behind Chase Elliott after St. Louis.” Briscoe, who led 309 of 367 laps at Darlington and 15 laps at the Gateway, sits 2nd in the official playoff standings after the Enjoy Illinois 300 winner, Denny Hamlin, but just behind Elliott in the old system. Behind them, Christopher Bell ranks third, with Hendrick teammates Kyle Larson and William Byron completing the top five.

The rest of the top 10 includes Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, Chris Buescher, and Ross Chastain, drivers who have thrived on steady finishes. While the playoffs reward high-stakes wins, the Winston Cup method celebrates season-long excellence, sparking debate about which is the truest test of skill. For many purists, the old system “keeps the old-school spirit of NASCAR alive,” reminding fans why a return to the additional approach still holds appeal.