While Carson Hocevar has shown flashes of brilliance elsewhere, Daytona has never really been his playground. After his crash at the 2024 Daytona 500, he tends to prioritize staying out of trouble rather than charging for the front. The strategy paid off last year when he climbed from 37th to 11th without ever truly contending, but this year the 500 brought a different story. The stakes were different, and Carson needed a win to make the playoffs.

His past performance may not inspire confidence, but his run at Atlanta earlier this year, starting 26th and finishing second, proves that he can make noise on superspeedways. So, a fight for the wind wasn’t out of the question, but the risk loomed large, and the solid starting spot made him a shaky DFS gamble. But tonight turned into heartbreak real fast.

Carson Hocevar’s Daytona hopes go up in smoke after engine failure

Carson Hocevar rolled into the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona starting from 16th on the grid, right in the heart of the action, sandwiched between Christopher Bell in 15th and rookie Shane Van Gisbergen in 17th. That starting spot came courtesy of NASCAR’s performance metric after Friday’s qualifying was wiped out by lightning. For Hocevar, whose average starting position this season is just a few spots higher, this wasn’t an unfamiliar place, but at Daytona, where chaos looks at every draft, even at mid-pack launch, it feels like walking the high wire.

Once the green flag dropped, Carson settled into the pack, pushing his No. 77 forward for lap 31 pit action, when he joined a typical round of stops alongside heavy hitters like William Byron, Chris Buescher, and Daniel Suarez, trying to fine-tune strategy and keep the pace in the pack. As the race unfolded, its intensity ratcheted up, but Carson was building his rhythm when the unthinkable happened: on lap 81, smoke came from his ride as he decelerated out of Turn 4, a clear red flag for trouble. Two laps later, his car ground to a halt on the back stretch, triggering a caution and signaling the end of his Daytona ride. It began as a calculated effort to stay in contention and potentially shake up RFK Racing’s playoff hopes and ended with a wrenching mechanical exit that left both cars and fans empty-handed.

Carson radioed in one of the few chilling lines all night, saying, “ I just started losing power and then smoke. I still have oil pressure.” Inside the cockpit, he watched his dreams evaporate as his car coughed out smoke and coasted to a stop. It wasn’t just bad luck. It was a cruel late twist in a season that had teased improvement only to deliver heartbreak when the stakes were highest.

Later, Carson Hocevar stopped on the backstretch, and when asked about the car’s condition and the oil pressure, he replied, ” No, but it’s down cylinder or something. It was, it was acting like it was off the chip half throttle. And then just start losing power, and then smoke. So. But no, I still had oil pressure.” Carson wasn’t alone in the elimination limbo. His longtime rival, Ricky Stenhouse Junior, Kyle Busch, Riley Herbst, and Noah Gragson, also saw their postseason dreams evaporate.

Ricky Stenhouse Junior was already out of playoff range, languishing well below the cut line in the standings. Busch faced more direct peril; his playoff hopes were dashed after being caught in a massive wreck that once again kept the two-time champion out of the postseason for a second straight year. Riley Herbst and Noah Gragson never managed to generate a win or enough points to build a case for inclusion, stealing their fate by default. And Carson’s run-in with Brad Keselowski at Richmond doesn’t reflect his splendid last few weeks. As the dust settled on Daytona, the playoff field had begun shedding names, and Carson’s was stamped with a defeat that stings. However, things do not look as good for his Spire Motorsport teammate, Michael McDowell, either.

Michael McDowell sounds off on his playoff hopes at Daytona

Michael McDowell’s first season with Spire Motorsports hasn’t exactly been the storybook debut he might have envisioned. Sitting a daunting 207 points below the playoff cut line, the No. 71 Driver knows there is only one ticket into the postseason left for him when at Daytona this Saturday. On paper, that is a long shot. But McDonald’s career has been built on resilience, and his past triumphs on the super speedway make it impossible for him to just throw in the towel.

Speaking with reporters ahead of the regular season finale, Michael made it clear that he was still swinging for the fences. He said, “It’s our last chance, the last race before the playoffs start. We all know what we’re trying to do, and we’re definitely going to try to get one of our Spire Motorsports cars in. It’s a great opportunity for us and a new partner onboard with Fly Alliance. Justin (Haley) has won there, and I’ve won there. We’ve had strong speedway cars this year and the time has come.”

That history he is referring to is no small footnote. In 2019, the 26-year-old Justin Haley shocked the NASCAR world when, driving for Spire Motorsports, he took the No. 77 to victory Lane at Daytona, one of the most surprising wins in the track’s history. Just two years later, McDowell had his own date with Daytona glory, claiming the prestigious 2021 Daytona 500 while piloting the No. 34 Ford Mustang for Front Row Motorsports. The blueprint for another upset is there; it is just a question of whether lightning can strike twice.

McDowell admits that it is not an ideal scenario, having to bank everything on one race, but he is not letting the pressure crush optimism. He said, “Unfortunately, we put ourselves in this predicament where it comes down to the last race to get into the playoffs, but we know what we’ve got to do.” That confidence is fueled by a super speedway resume that, while not perfect this year, has shown flashes of competitiveness. So far in 2025, his best performance came at Sonoma Raceway, when he crossed the finish line fourth. At the season-opening Daytona race, he finished 11th, and at Atlanta, he posted 13th and 18th place finishes. Talladega brought another 11th-place run. The pace is there, just not the luck. And no,w as the Coke Zero Sugar 400 is underway, all eyes will be on him.