Moving to NASCAR was a decision that required Shane van Gisbergen’s complete determination. It even showed in the 8 NASCAR national series wins he amassed in just two years. And his top five finishes at road courses this season? Sheer perfection! But in the high-stakes world of NASCAR, his playoff chances have suddenly become a major talking point amid his ongoing struggles on oval tracks. In fact, his average finish of 21.08 is solely because of multiple results outside the top 20 and top 30 on oval tracks. Now, with the playoffs just around the corner, will the Trackhouse Racing star be successful in etching a new narrative?

With victories at Mexico City, Chicago, Sonoma, and Watkins Glen, he set records as the winningest rookie in a single season and the most successful non-American driver in NASCAR history. However, this prowess starkly contrasts with his struggles on ovals, where his average finish sits outside the top 20, and top-10s elude him. Addressing this dichotomy, the 36-year-old openly acknowledged the need for improvement as he faces the playoff oval gauntlet.

“I think it’s just gonna be a law of averages for us, right? We gotta be above average, and that’s the shot we’re gonna have to get through. We gotta have three decent finishes, and we’ll be able to get through the round,” he said when asked about specific targets at Darlington, an oval track that is among his favorites.

The No. 88 Chevrolet driver cruised his way to the playoffs by virtue of a dominant display at Mexico City and earned 22 bonus points to be the sixth seed and +16 above the cut-off line. And whether van Gisbergen makes it past the Round of 16 is the “million-dollar question” that everyone wants to know, as per Steve Latarte. And the concerns may be genuine, just look at Monster Mile as an example. Though he started the race comfortably in the top ten, the New Zealander had a puncture in his tire that forced him to pit early, ruining any chance of progress in Dover.

Further, NASCAR commentator Steve Letarte noted, “He seems to be from the booth  not only running better, but his maneuvering on the race track is getting better and better every week for me.” Such progression is critical as the playoffs begin with three challenging oval venues: the historic Darlington Raceway, the unfamiliar Gateway, and the demanding Bristol Motor Speedway, where consistency will be key.

A quick glance shows that he finished 26th and 20th in Darlington in the past, besides a top 10 Xfinity finish there last year. Then there is Bristol, which is posing a significant threat. He finished 38th there last year and grabbed an 18th-place finish in Xfinity. Despite these struggles on the ovals, SVG has put in the work to turn his fate around. And it has paid off to some degree. During the Brickyard 400, he raced his way from 27th to a decent 14th-place finish.

Moving on, Shane van Gisbergen conceded that setting a points total wasn’t their focus but emphasized the critical need to “get better to make it work.” Furthermore, his playoff points haul is significant; with 22 playoff points accrued from his road course wins, he enters the postseason well above the elimination cutline, affording him a cushion that others might not have. Historically, drivers beginning the postseason with such points have not failed to advance out of the first round, a statistical advantage that cannot be overlooked.

Shane van Gisbergen’s playoff narrative gets a major boost

With an average finish of around 21.077 in 26 races and just five top-10s, he has also faced three DNFs this season. However, recent improvements on ovals, highlighted by his 16th-place finish at Daytona in August, where he led six laps, have shifted the narrative around his playoff prospects.

NASCAR insiders Alex Hayden and Todd Gordon have expressed optimism, with Hayden stating, “Yeah, there is, and quite honestly, I think Shane Van Gisbergen may be able to make it to the round of eight. And I think this because of the point tally that he has right now; he’s getting better on ovals.” Gordon added that tracks like the Charlotte Roval, a mix of road and oval, could be van Gisbergen’s advantage: “I think that plays right into his wheelhouse. So he could go out and win that race and find himself in the round of eight.”

Van Gisbergen himself remains focused and realistic: “No, I’ve tried to keep it the same, but you just know that you can’t make the mistakes because it would be hard to dig ourselves out of that. We just have to keep doing what we’ve been doing, but it’s so hard in a NASCAR race… so we just have to eliminate or minimize what we do wrong, and just try to get it right every week.”

Beyond van Gisbergen’s own outlook, the support from the expert community paints a nuanced picture. Alex Hayden believes that van Gisbergen’s unique road-racing skills, such as breaking prowess, could partly translate to ovals with longer straightaways and technical braking zones, possibly providing an edge against seasoned oval racers.

Yet skepticism remains, however, from voices like Dale Earnhardt Jr., who says, “I do not believe that SVG… Man, it’s gonna be tight. He’s got 16 points to sort of cushion the blow… I just have a hard time seeing him escape the Round of 16…”

Overall, van Gisbergen’s road course dominance, combined with his upward trajectory on ovals, has experts debating the depth of his playoff run potential.