Shane van Gisbergen has stormed the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series with four wins, all on road courses at Mexico City, Chicago, Sonoma, and Watkins Glen. This feat makes him the winningest rookie in a single Cup season, surpassing legends like Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson, and the winningest non-American driver ever. Yet, his oval results tell a different story, with an average finish of 21.1 across 26 races and just five top-10s overall. Despite those stats, he’s coming from a major Daytona boost after finishing 16th at Daytona, where he even led a few laps. Changes like these have started to shift the playoff narrative for him, and insiders couldn’t agree more with it.

Apart from Daytona, flashes of oval improvement have also shone before, such as the P14 finish at Charlotte in May. Entering the playoffs seeded sixth with 2022 points, SVG sits 16 points above the cutline. His road course dominance certainly helps, but it’s the ovals that will dominate the Round of 16. However, the claims of NASCAR insiders Todd Gordon and Alex Hayden spot a positive trajectory in his oval runs that surely strengthen his postseason picture.

Insiders boost Shane van Gisbergen’s playoff outlook

On the NASCAR LIVE podcast, experts Alex Hayden and Todd Gordon delivered bold verdicts that elevate Shane van Gisbergen’s playoff story, predicting he could reach the Round of 8 despite oval challenges. When asked about the depth of SVG’s playoff chances, Hayden stated, “Yeah, there is, and quite honestly, I think Shane Van Gisbergen may be able to make it to the round of eight. And I think this because of the point tally that he has right now; he’s getting better on ovals.”

This optimism stems from SVG‘s recent gains, like his 16th at the second Daytona race in August, where he led six laps, a step up from earlier oval struggles. Hayden’s take is bold given SVG’s rookie status and limited Cup experience since his 2023 debut win at Chicago, marking him as the first debut winner in 60 years. Gordon also echoed this, saying, “I understand and agree with most of Alex’s sentiment, and I’ll build off of that, saying that worldwide technology raceway, I feel like, plays into somebody who has braking, like road course, braking abilities.”

Gordon views straightaways as suiting SVG’s skills, drawing from past strong runs by road course specialists like Michael McDowell. Substantiating this, SVG’s 2025 Gateway finish was 20th, but his braking prowess showed in a 14th at Richmond in July, hinting at adaptation. Gordon’s verdict stands out as bold amid SVG’s three DNFs this year, yet it ties into his 252 laps led, mostly on roads but with oval glimpses.

Diving deeper, Hayden added, “Then with the Roval being the final race of the round of 12, I think that plays right into his wheelhouse. So he could go out and win that race and find himself in the round of eight.” This highlights the Charlotte Roval in the Round of 12, where SVG could leverage his edge; his only prior Roval start in 2024 yielded a 28th, but his 2025 road dominance suggests potential.

Gordon warned of Darlington‘s need for a top-15 to preserve his 16-point buffer, bold considering SVG’s 20th there earlier. Since 2022, SVG’s ovals include a 28th at Talladega in 2024 and an 18th at Michigan in 2025, mixed but trending up. These insights paint SVG as a wildcard capable of defying oval odds. Yet, not all voices align with his deep run.

Dale Jr. has a different view

Dale Earnhardt Jr. voiced skepticism on SVG’s ability to advance past the Round of 16, citing the oval-heavy slate. On his “Dale Jr. Download” podcast, he said, “I do not believe that SVG… Man, it’s gonna be tight. He’s got 16 points to sort of cushion the blow.” This prediction underscores the pressure from tracks like Bristol, where SVG finished 38th in March 2025, and Gateway, despite its potential. Earnhardt’s view contrasts SVG’s road prowess but is grounded in his three Supercars titles not translating seamlessly to NASCAR ovals yet.

He elaborated, “He has been running better at the ovals. But man, this will be tough. I like the guy. SVG is awesome. I just have a hard time seeing him escape the Round of 16…” This acknowledges progress, like SVG’s 19th at Indianapolis in July 2025, but emphasizes competition from oval vets. Earnhardt’s take is informed by SVG’s 4 wins this year, all on roads, and zero on ovals, highlighting the gap. His foreign background in racing adds to the adjustment narrative, as Earnhardt notes the steep curve against drivers starting young on U.S. tracks.

Finally, Earnhardt stated, “I don’t think SVG will make it because they’re just looking. I’m looking at the other competition. It’s not a knock on SVG, but when he doesn’t make it, it’ll be by the slimmest of margins.” This expects a close call, backed by SVG (2022), only 9 points ahead of Chase Elliott (2013). It substantiates the Round of 16’s lack of roads post-Watkins Glen’s regular-season move, leaving SVG reliant on consistency at Darlington, where his best since 2022 is that 20th.