What if the Warriors are walking a tightrope… blindfolded, in flip-flops, over a pit of lava, and the guy holding the rope steady is Jonathan Kuminga? Sounds dramatic? It might not be dramatic enough. Kuminga isn’t just the Warriors’ best young player. Right now, he might be their most powerful one, too. And not because he asked for it, but because the situation handed it to him. How, you ask? Well, the moment he declined an extension with the Warriors, everything about Golden State’s summer got… complicated. The next domino?

“He has the leverage of screwing the Warriors,” said one of the analysts on Locked On Warriors, bluntly on his $8 million qualifying offer. Sign it, and he gets a de facto no-trade clause, with unrestricted free agency just a season away. Decline it, and he’s playing chess with a GM known for budgeting like it’s an art form. So how did we get here? Kuminga just wrapped a year with 15.3 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 45.5% from the field. He showed growth as an off-ball cutter and isolation scorer, and finally looked like the lottery pick Golden State envisioned back in 2021. In short? The kid hooped. But despite all that, he still didn’t exactly get consistent late-game minutes.

And when Steve Kerr was asked about it, the answer always danced somewhere between fit, experience, and vibes. That’s not sitting well with his camp. The Warriors may have cracked open the negotiation door for Jonathan Kuminga, but they’re not exactly letting him walk through it freely. According to Shams Charania and Anthony Slater, Golden State put a two-year, $45 million offer on the table, but the second year is a team option, and the Dubs are refusing to include a no-trade clause. For Kuminga, it’s not just about the money. 

It’s about control. After spending four years in a developmental tug-of-war, the 22-year-old isn’t eager to hand the steering wheel back to the same franchise that kept shifting gears on him. Kuminga’s camp, led by agent Aaron Turner, isn’t sitting idle. Turner pitched a three-year, $82 million counteroffer during a Summer League meeting in Vegas, one that would still keep the Warriors below the second apron and allow them access to the taxpayer midlevel exception. But outside Golden State, the suitors are circling… and louder. The Suns and Kings have both reportedly floated four-year deals worth around $90 million with player options baked in. 

And well, that amount sums up to be career leverage, guaranteed minutes, and the chance to be more than just a spark off the bench. But here’s where it gets stickier than a Chase Center pretzel at halftime. If Kuminga signs that qualifying offer, the Warriors can’t trade him during the season without his consent. Zero leverage and long-term control. They lose the one thing they always want: options. Worse? “You’re gonna get to the point where you don’t know what this kid is… and you’re stuck,” they added on the podcast. But how exactly? 

Multiple offseason targets, including Seth Curry, Al Horford, and De’Anthony Melton, are reportedly waiting in limbo. That’s because teams want clarity on whether Kuminga is part of the Warriors’ plans. And right now, even the Warriors aren’t sure. “There is mutual interest in a reunion with De’Anthony Melton, who played only six games for them last year before he tore an ACL. It was a really good fit — Steph Curry likes him,” Anthony Slater reported. But that’s not all.

The Kuminga conundrum

The Warriors’ biggest bet may not be on Stephen Curry’s window or Draymond Green’s durability right now. It might be whether Kuminga wants to stay at all. Because the truth is, he’s being scouted like a future star. Multiple execs from rebuilding and fringe playoff teams have floated Kuminga as a potential centerpiece in deals. And while the Warriors have made it clear they’re not entertaining any sign-and-trade deals, Kuminga’s leverage lies within the CBA itself.

Under current rules, Golden State’s proposed one-plus-one structure would include a de facto no-trade clause because of his Bird rights, giving Jonathan Kuminga say over his next destination if moved. That is, unless he agrees to waive it. ESPN reports the Warriors have asked him to do just that. So while Golden State clings to restricted free agency as its safety net, Kuminga has until October 1 to decide: bet on himself with the one-year qualifying offer, accept a team-friendly bridge deal, or push harder for a clean break. And it’s not just smoke.

Kuminga’s profile, being 6’7, explosive, switchable on defense, improving playmaker, fits arguably nearly every modern NBA archetype. His usage rate climbed post-All-Star break, and he logged more possessions as the roll man in pick-and-rolls than ever before. The kid’s learning curve isn’t just pointing up, it’s sprinting. Which begs the ultimate question: Why would he want to lock in?

Golden State doesn’t have a clear path to a bigger role, not with Draymond and Butler both eating up similar spots. And unless Kerr pivots his rotation philosophy… something he rarely does, Kuminga risks another season of up-and-down usage. He’s not demanding out (yet), but he’s also not signing anything that guarantees being a sixth man again.

So now, Mike Dunleavy Jr. and Co. are stuck. If they move him too early, they risk watching him blossom elsewhere. If they wait too long, they might get nothing at all. This is asset mismanagement, looming in slow motion. Golden State’s dynasty didn’t crumble in one summer. But if they mishandle this one? It might just.