The Warriors are staring down the final year of their two-year championship window. Steph Curry is still elite, Draymond Green is still the heartbeat, and now, with Jimmy Butler in the mix, the urgency is deafening. Golden State needs to win. But while the front office clings tightly to the players it believes can help make that happen, they risk losing their best young talent, Jonathan Kuminga, for nothing.

At the heart of it is a surprising roadblock, Buddy Hield. He is a stabilizer in the non-Curry minutes. Golden State refuses to include him in any sign-and-trade for Kuminga. And he’s also grown into a close locker room ally of Jimmy Butler, whose presence has transformed the Warriors’ chemistry and identity since his arrival at last season’s trade deadline.

But this relationship, and Hield’s perceived importance, has put the front office in a bind. It’s late August, and the standoff with Kuminga continues. Sacramento’s offer, Malik Monk, and a protected 2030 first was already better than nothing. Golden State said no. Why? Because parting with Hield or Moses Moody to make the deal financially work would hurt the current roster’s shooting depth. According to Sam Vecenie on the Game Theory Podcast, the math is simple: “The Warriors have to trade Hield and Moody to be able to trade Kuminga right now. You don’t have to do that if you wait until mid-season… I think I’d just rather have the money to be able to trade.”

But waiting comes with its own cost. Kuminga’s qualifying offer expires Oct. 1. If he takes it, he becomes an unrestricted free agent next summer. Golden State gets zero in return. So, the cold truth is that Jimmy Butler’s buddy might be the key reason this is spiraling. The Warriors are so intent on keeping Hield that they’re risking losing Kuminga entirely. Even if Kuminga is eventually traded, Vecenie made the case that removing Hield now to open up salary flexibility is a cleaner solution than trying to scramble later. “If I’m Kuminga… I think I’m back to where Golden State is probably the spot at the end of the day.”

In other words, Hield might stick around only to find himself a casualty later in the season when the front office is finally forced to act. For a player already navigating streaky production and a bench role, that’s a precarious place to be. The organization sees Hield as vital shooting depth. But valuing him so highly could cost them Kuminga, and derail the long-term plan.

Jonathan Kuminga’s last choice

Kuminga’s camp has been holding firm, he wants a starting role, long-term money. But with the market dried up and the Warriors unwilling to meet his $30 million-per-year demands, reality is closing in. Meanwhile, Golden State’s offer is two years, $45 million, team option on the second year. Not ideal, but it’s not scraps either. “$22 million or whatever that number is is a s— ton of money for Jonathan Kuminga,” said Vecenie. “It is so much more than what his qualifying offer is… The thing that he has to really consider here is if he takes the qualifying offer, he already doesn’t really work… with Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green.”

Kuminga might believe he’s in the tier of Cade Cunningham or Scottie Barnes, but the league doesn’t see it that way. Not yet. And unlike Barnes, who got five years, $224 million, Kuminga has yet to prove he can be a consistent top option. However, there’s another layer to this. Taking the two-year offer may just mean the Warriors use his salary as a trade chip by February. “It’s like, hey, take this money just so we can use it as a trade number,” said Bryce Simon on the Game Theory Podcast. “You’ll have no control over where they end up sending you… but $45 million is $45 million.”

While Sacramento still lingers in the background, the Warriors want more. And until one side budges, Kuminga sits in limbo, knowing his best choice might be taking a deal from a team that doesn’t view him as part of their future. The Warriors are treating this as a title chase. By valuing Buddy Hield and Moses Moody so highly, they’re boxing themselves into a corner that could cost them their only meaningful young asset. If Golden State continues to play hardball both with Kuminga and potential trade partners like Sacramento, they may end up with neither Kuminga nor the assets they could’ve had in return.