The Philadelphia 76ers’ Conference Finals drought stretches back to the Allen Iverson-led 2001 run: a 25-year gap that has shifted from an odd statistic to a franchise-defining scar. Across that span, the Sixers have tried different stars, such as Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler, and James Harden, and yet the Second Round ceiling has held. Now, their hopes rest squarely on the shoulders and psyche of Joel Embiid.

This offseason, the conversation has shifted from just when he’ll be on the floor to how he’ll get there consistently. His rhythm has often been disrupted after the last few years of injury-riddled regular season, leaving coaches and teammates guessing whether he’d be available. The team has been built to orbit around his dominant interior presence, but that orbit wobbles when the center is uncertain.

Insider Rachel Nichols laid it out with striking candor: “It was very clear that he had such a reluctance and fear of getting more injured… when you are regularly injured, you have to figure out a new path to get yourself brainwise on the court.”

Nichols clarified that she wasn’t calling Embiid “mentally weak or lame or wimpy… I’m not talking about any of that. I’m talking about he has been given a set of circumstances that are so substantive, and I just think it takes actual specific professional work to figure out how to navigate those.” She has floated that professional mental guidance could be the missing layer in his return to dominance.

As she framed it, this is about learning how to take calculated risks again, to trust the body after setbacks, and to build a mental routine that can coexist with the physical rehab he’s already undergoing. There’s no confirmation that the Sixers have adopted such measures; at this stage, it remains a suggestion that reflects how insiders now view Embiid’s journey as more than just medical charts and MRI results.

His track record underlines why this is pressing. Embiid played only 19 games last season, averaging 23.8 points and 8.2 rebounds. Still, his presence dipped the Sixers to a minus-3.1 net rating per 100 possessions, and his absence often left them searching for an identity.

Compare that with his MVP-level dominance before injury in 2024, when he averaged a staggering 34.7 points on 52.9% shooting, and the gulf is stark. The Eastern Conference picture adds urgency. Boston has dismantled after Tatum’s Achilles injury; Milwaukee is banking on Giannis pulling a 2018 LeBron season; Indiana is unstable after Haliburton’s Finals injury; and Cleveland has yet to prove itself in the playoffs.

There is a genuine window, perhaps the clearest since Iverson’s run, where a healthy, mentally confident Embiid could tilt the balance of power.

This season feels less like a roster experiment for Philadelphia and more like a psychological one. And for the first time, some in the media are openly asking: Is the key to ending this 25-year drought in his head as much as in his knees?

A Core Built for Now, But Only If Embiid Holds Up

Chris Mannix, speaking on the same segment, framed the Sixers’ plight with blunt clarity: “Look, last year was one of the most shockingly bad years I think any team could have had… they get Paul George. They’ve got… arguably the best big three in the NBA going into last season. And that team never got off the ground. Joel Embiid missed all of training camp, first part of the season. Paul George got hurt… at the end of the year… the wheels that come off the wagon completely.”

His words echoed a growing sentiment: the Sixers have everything on paper with Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey, but have yet to see that trio in full flight, with them playing just 16 games together last season.

Mannix added, “They’re still a team that is entirely beholden to the health of Joel Embiid. If Joel Embiid is a part-time player, they’re not going to win anything… If he can play, and if Paul George can stay on the floor, Tyrese Maxey’s an All-Star – like that’s still a team that on paper has the best big three in that conference… they’ve got the roster on paper to win a conference championship.”

That “on paper” caveat looms large. Philadelphia retained key role players like Kyle Lowry and Eric Gordon, shored up their wing depth with the addition of VJ Edgecombe, and enters the 2025–26 season with a clean bill of health for Maxey and a ramp-up for Paul George following surgery.

But their path to the Eastern Conference Finals, one they haven’t reached since 2001, remains tied to Embiid’s availability and consistency. The Sixers are not in a rebuild mode. They’re in a window. But it’s a window that may not stay open if the mental and physical aspects of their franchise centerpiece continue to blur the lines between dominance and doubt.