Jonas Valanciunas’ arrival in Denver came with some buzz. He was part of a trade that moved Dario Saric to Sacramento, and right away, he seemed like someone who could help the Nuggets. The idea was for him to take pressure off Nikola Jokic by holding down the second unit. During the 2023–24 season, he put up 12.2 points and 8.8 rebounds over 82 games. His style isn’t flashy, but he’s reliable in the paint. Everything seemed clear until another opportunity entered the picture.

After past runs with Toronto, Memphis, New Orleans, Washington, and Sacramento, Valanciunas looked ready for a change. Word broke that the Lithuanian big man had landed in Athens on Friday. Reports revealed he was close to signing a three-year, €12 million net deal with Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens. That’s nearly $14 million, tax-free. Who wouldn’t at least consider it? Medicals were reportedly scheduled, and he seemed moments away from heading overseas. But just when it looked done, Denver spoke up.

A post on X quoted NBA insider Marc Stein, stating, “The Nuggets are ‘optimistic’ that Jonas Valanciunas will be in Denver this season.” But that was just the surface. In his actual report, Stein revealed that Denver is quietly making it clear they have no intention of letting Valanciunas break his contract. That changes the whole situation. Despite his interest in leaving, he’s still under a two-year, $30 million deal. And with FIBA rules requiring a Letter of Clearance, no NBA contract means no Greek signing.

Letting Valanciunas walk now would leave a serious gap in Denver’s rotation. He’s expected to give Jokic much-needed rest without sacrificing interior presence. Denver’s system depends on size and physicality in the paint. Without Jonas, that balance tilts. The team knows it, too, which explains their firm stance. If no buyout happens, fans should expect him in a Nuggets jersey this fall. And if not, the situation could spiral fast.

If Jonas Valanciunas leaves, the Nuggets’ backup plan might be even bigger

Let’s imagine a different timeline, one where Jonas Valanciunas gets his wish and heads to Greece. The deal with Panathinaikos would not only give him a fresh start but also free up a key asset for Denver. With his exit, the Nuggets could unlock a $14.1 million exception. That is not pocket change. In the hands of a sharp front office, it could flip the narrative. Suddenly, losing a veteran center might open the door for an even bigger catch.

So, who could they target? The moment Valanciunas leaves, the Denver Nuggets will have the money to challenge Golden State’s plans for Al Horford. The 18-year vet is officially on the market after finishing a $19.5 million run with Boston. He still brings leadership, defense, and a high basketball IQ. Marc Stein called him a major name to watch. In his own words, “All indications continue to point to Al Horford landing in Golden State – sooner or later.” But what if Denver jumps in first?

This is not just about depth. Pairing Horford with Nikola Jokic could be a masterstroke. Horford knows how to space the floor, anchor switches, and lead a locker room. He does not need touches to make an impact. That sounds like exactly what Denver would want in a playoff run. With the exception in hand, the Nuggets would be one of the few teams able to offer him a competitive deal without gutting their rotation. It’s a chess move waiting to happen.

Still, it all hinges on Valanciunas. As long as he remains on the roster, Denver’s hands are tied. FIBA rules make it clear: no release, no move abroad. Unless a buyout happens, the Nuggets will not get access to the exception. So while the Warriors are circling Horford, Denver waits in the wings. If Jonas stays, he fills a role. If he leaves, he might open a new one, possibly with even bigger implications.

Sometimes the backup plan is not just insurance, it’s the better story.