JJ Redick is feeling pretty good about his defense. NBA insiders? Not so much.

The Los Angeles Lakers have come flying out of the gates this season, even with LeBron James stuck on the sidelines and rehabbing in the G-League. They’re 10–4, sitting near the top of the West, and cooking people offensively, top four in effective field goal percentage despite LeBron, Luka Doncic, and Austin Reaves all missing games early.

Luka has walked in, grabbed the keys, and parked himself in the early MVP conversation. Reaves has turned into an All-NBA-level engine, averaging 28.3 points and 8.2 assists while James has been out and thriving as a primary playmaker. Deandre Ayton is doing the dirty work in the paint, role players are hitting shots, and for now, the Lakers score like it’s breathing.

But as always with this franchise, the vibes and the numbers don’t quite match.

Redick came in promising honesty, and he delivered it immediately in preseason, calling the Lakers’ transition defense “dogs*”** after two exhibitions. That’s a coach sending a message with a sledgehammer.

Fast-forward nine games, and the tone shifted. Redick told reporters he “likes where the defense sits”, especially considering LeBron hasn’t played. He’s circled two big priorities:

• Clean up transition defense

• Be ready for “unorthodox” pick-and-rolls and creative screening actions that keep scrambling them

He even used Ayton as Exhibit A for optimism, pointing to his near-elite rim-protection metrics as the closest defender at the basket. On paper, you can see what Redick is talking about: effort is there, rotations are occasionally sharp, and the rim is reasonably protected.

Then you look at Atlanta.

In a 122–102 loss to the Hawks, the Lakers gave up 51.1% shooting and 20 turnovers. You can run the most beautiful scheme in the world, but if you’re feeding live-ball breaks and late closeouts, it’s going to look very ordinary very fast.

Enter ESPN’s insider tier list and the needle that poked the bubble.

In a recent ranking, Zach Kram and Kevin Pelton refused to slide the Lakers into the “true contenders” column. Instead, they dropped them into the “conference finals party crashers” tier. Translation: fun, dangerous, but not invited to the inner circle… yet.

Kram’s line that’s been echoing around Laker-land: “Can Reaves sustain his leap when James returns, and can a lineup with Doncic, Reaves, and James defend enough to win multiple playoff rounds?”

That’s the entire thesis in one sentence.

Even more brutal? The shot-quality numbers. According to tracking data, Lakers opponents have enjoyed the fourth-best shot quality in the NBA, with only the Kings, Nets, and Pelicans giving up more favorable looks. That’s basically the numbers whispering: “You’re getting away with this for now… but don’t get cute.”

So while Redick is telling everyone he’s “satisfied” with the defense given the circumstances, the analytics side is like: “Careful, coach. The math is coming.”

Shaq, Cowherd, and the LeBron Problem No One Wants to Say Out Loud

Then you pile on the national voices.

Shaquille O’Neal says he “feels for” Austin Reaves because once LeBron comes back, “when the big man comes back, everything shifts back.” He compared James to an “O.G. coming back home”, basically warning that Reaves might go from running the offense to standing in the corner watching the O.G. cook.

It’s funny. It’s also real. If Reaves’ usage falls off a cliff, you’re not just changing his box score; you’re changing the very thing that made this offense special without LeBron.

Then there’s Colin Cowherd, who grabbed the flamethrower and said LeBron needs to “fall in line or leave” if he can’t accept that the Lakers now revolve around a new star (Doncic) and a new system. He framed Los Angeles as a “pass-the-torch city,”  Kareem to Magic, Magic to Kobe, Kobe to LeBron, and hinted that the torch might already be halfway to Luka’s hands.

Strip away the TV theatrics, and the point is simple: If LeBron’s return means “everybody move, it’s my show again,” the version of the Lakers that started 10–4 might disappear.

While all this noise is happening, LeBron has been quietly doing something almost no 40-year-old legend would bother with: a G-League rehab assignment.

He’s been working with the South Bay Lakers, playing full-contact 5-on-5, testing that sciatica-related back issue, and apparently looking sharp enough that reports say he “moved well” and felt no pain. He’s now been reassigned to the main roster, set to fully practice, with a mid-November home date circled as the realistic window for his season debut.

When he returns, he brings:

• Elite offensive playmaking

• The Lakers’ best defensive communicator

• Another high-IQ brain for those “unorthodox” pick-and-roll coverages Redick keeps talking about

Redick himself has admitted they “need LeBron back” as a defensive leader, which is completely true. But here’s the catch:

LeBron is turning 41, coming off a back issue. Doncic and Reaves have flourished with the ball. And the shot-quality data says this team is already skating on thin ice defensively. Plugging LeBron in solves some problems and potentially creates others. On offense, nobody’s worried. A trio of LeBron, Luka, and Reaves is basically a video game.

On defense? That’s the entire season.

If Redick can build a scheme that hides their weaknesses on the perimeter, leverages Ayton’s rim protection, and lets LeBron act as the backline quarterback instead of the nightly fire extinguisher, the Lakers can absolutely graduate from “party crashers” to “legit problem.”

If not, Kram’s warning is going to age perfectly: They’ll score a ton, sell out arenas, trend on social… and run headfirst into a second-round ceiling.

For now, JJ Redick is smiling about where the defense sits. The numbers, the insiders, and the shot-quality charts are all saying the same thing:

Enjoy the bubble, coach. But keep an eye on that pin.