The Golden State Warriors find themselves in the middle of one of the strangest offseasons in recent memory. While rivals like the Rockets and Lakers made splashy moves to vault themselves into contention, Golden State has been frustratingly quiet. For a franchise built on bold decisions and aggressive roster management, the silence has been deafening. And now, with their restricted free agent, Jonathan Kuminga’s future still unresolved and their most recent trade discussions involving Sacramento’s Devin Carter stalling out, the Warriors’ front office faces an increasingly narrow window to get it right.

On the Game Theory Podcast, NBA analyst Sam Vecenie dropped a nugget that sparked plenty of reaction around the league. He said, “I freaking love Devin Carter, and I think Devin Carter is a perfect target for the Golden State Warriors. Uh, and I would 100% move Jonathan Kaminga, uh, for Devin Carter and stuff like that. That’s kind of where my head is at on it. But, you know, I think Devin Carter is the exact kind of player that like works for Golden State a lot of the time because they have like a really structured system, and they could play him next to Steph and Jimmy and those guys, and I think would really make it work.”

Co-host Bryce Simon agreed, but raised a key complication: “Yeah. No, I mean he I think the way he plays would fit there. Um, so that one makes sense. I was trying to look through, you know, I assume there’s no mechanism to make it happen. Milwaukee could use a guy like this. I just don’t know how I don’t know how they get there, right? Assets-wise and all of that, but I guess if Sacramento just wasn’t overly interested.”

Vecenie pushed further, tossing out the kind of thought experiment that gets NBA fans buzzing: “Bryce, I’ve got the idea. Let’s go. Well, Kings fans are not going to like it. But, you know, hopefully this new front office isn’t as interested in Kyle Kuzma as the last front office was. Yeah. Uh, but yeah, no, I mean that’s the mechanism. It would be Kuzma.”

The way these two analysts framed it shines a spotlight on the Warriors’ dilemma. On one hand, Carter has the kind of grit, defensive tenacity, and structure-friendly game that theoretically fits beautifully alongside Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and the evergreen Jimmy Butler. On the other hand, the numbers and tape don’t lie; Carter struggled badly with his shot last season, hitting just 43.9% from the field and an ugly 29.5% from three. He also missed a huge chunk of his rookie year due to a shoulder injury, and Vecenie himself admitted his scouting evaluation has to account for that.

The Kings reportedly dangled Carter in packages for Kuminga earlier this summer, even including Dario Saric and second-rounders at one point. Later, Malik Monk and a protected first-rounder were also floated. Yet the Warriors resisted, and now it seems like they may have dodged a bullet. As Vecenie later clarified, he’s “more worried about where the shot is going than anything. The shot continues to get hitchier and hitchier… I’m worried that it’s going to take some time to work through [his] shoulder injury.”

That’s the rub for Golden State. They don’t need a developmental project right now; they need either a surefire upside play or a polished contributor who can immediately plug into Steve Kerr’s system. Carter is promising, but not quite that. And with Sacramento reportedly ready to move either Carter or Monk in order to clear the way to sign Russell Westbrook, the Bucks have now circled in, reportedly preparing a proposal that could reroute Carter to Milwaukee instead. If that happens, the Warriors will have officially lost out on a potential piece, even if they weren’t sure they wanted him in the first place.

Meanwhile, Kuminga’s contract stalemate continues to hold everything hostage. According to Anthony Slater of ESPN, the sticking point is the second year of a $45M offer, with the Warriors wanting a team option and Kuminga demanding a player option. The risk is clear: if Golden State doesn’t budge, Kuminga could simply sign his $7.9M qualifying offer and hit unrestricted free agency next summer, leaving the Warriors with nothing. For a player they’ve dangled as their top trade chip, that would be catastrophic.

Breaking Down the Warriors’ Risk and Reward

So, where does this leave the Warriors? Let’s break it down:

• What they wanted: A young player and an unprotected first-round pick in exchange for Kuminga.
• What they got offered: Carter, Saric, and two seconds… or Monk and a protected first.
• What they decided: Wait it out, keep Kuminga’s value intact, and hope for a stronger market closer to the trade deadline.
• What they risk: Kuminga walking away for nothing, or rejoining the team under a cloud of frustration and speculation.

The Warriors’ offseason strategy, or lack thereof, has already been under the microscope. They lost Kevon Looney, struck out on veteran bigs like Al Horford and Clint Capela, and sat on the sidelines while Houston traded for Kevin Durant. Their only moves have been marginal ones: draft-night swaps for late second-rounders like Alex Toohey and Will Richard, a handful of undrafted signings, and depth extensions for players like Gui Santos and Quinten Post.

On paper, it doesn’t look like nearly enough to keep pace in a West that’s getting younger, faster, and more aggressive. And while Steph Curry insists he’s “unbothered” by the lack of splashy moves, the reality is that his window is closing. The Warriors don’t have years to wait for developmental projects; they need firepower right now.

That’s why the Devin Carter situation is so fascinating. In some ways, he represented the exact type of middle-ground addition Golden State has leaned on in the past: a player with flaws but a strong system fit. Yet their restraint may prove wise. If Carter ends up in Milwaukee, paired next to Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Warriors will have to live with the optics of losing out. But that doesn’t mean it was the wrong call.

The truth is, Golden State must now make a hard decision, and fast. Either extend Kuminga with some form of guarantee to protect the asset, or revisit the trade market aggressively before Carter and other mid-tier targets are completely off the board. Otherwise, they risk walking into the 2025–26 season as the only contender that stood still, hoping internal growth magically solves the gap.

The Warriors have always been defined by boldness. The only question left is whether their patience is a strategy or just stubbornness.

What do you think, Warriors fans, did Golden State dodge a bullet by passing on Devin Carter, or will they regret letting him slip away to Milwaukee?