The world doesn’t care if you’re just a 21-year-old without a full starting college football season. If you have that famous last name, you’re expected to do great things. Right now, Texas’ new QB1 Arch Manning, is the living example where hype equals pressure. He’s already a projected No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. A Heisman favorite at +700 odds ahead of seasoned QBs like Garrett Nussmeier and Cade Klubnik. And if that wasn’t enough, Steve Sarkisian‘s team sits atop ESPN’s FPI rankings heading into 2025. So why is this pressure hitting hard?

In a Power Ratings X post by Kelley Ford on June 19, Texas stole the headlines as the top defensive unit in 2025 with a 99.2 rating ahead of Ohio State and Michigan with 98.8 and 98.5, respectively. But the offense is a totally different story, and it puts pressure on Arch Manning as the leader of the offensive side. In the offensive unit rating, the Longhorns sank down to No. 15 at 90.1, which is a major gap with the No. 1 spot held by Miami with 99.3. 

Arch Manning may wear the burnt orange, but right now, he’s carrying more weight than any other QBs. His stats look more like a preview than a polished product with 66% completions on just 90 pass attempts last season. He went 969 yards and nine touchdowns while also adding 108 yards and four scores with his legs. He might be a talented QB, but he still has a lot to prove. And many are skeptical of him leading the Longhorns.

Take On3 analyst J.D. PicKell for instance. “For Arch Manning, I have a 9.4 because I think a lot of the pressure from him is external — because it’s the last name, it’s the Texas logo,” he said. “It’s the fact that he sat for a couple of years. It’s the fact that he’s in a spot now where his task is to be better than the previous quarterback of a Quinn Ewers, who got you to the semi-finals two years in a row.” Still, the HC isn’t hitting the panic button on offense. 

Despite losing three O-line starters, including first-rounder Kelvin Banks Jr., Steve Sarkisian is staying in-house. “We haven’t tried to build our roster through the portal. We’ve tried to fill needs in the portal,” he said. “And we just haven’t felt like we’ve had those needs at the offensive line. We’ve recruited it well… We’ve got good continuity in that room.” That includes keeping RBs Quintrevion Wisner (1,064 yards) and CJ Baxter (back from injury) ready to roll. But for the upcoming season, the Longhorns’ real weapon could be the defense. 

Arch Manning is the hype, the defense is the carrier

While Arch Manning headlines the hype, it’s the defense that could carry Texas to glory. The Longhorns allowed just 15.3 points per game in 2024, a suffocating stat that highlights just how much Steve Sarkisian has flipped the script in Austin. As he told reporters this spring, “I think more importantly is who we are on defense and the growth of who we have been as a defensive team from Year 1 through Year 4. Going into Year 5, we have real playmakers on the defensive side of the b—.”

Look no further than All-American linebacker Anthony Hill, who racked up 113 tackles, eight sacks, and 16.5 TFLs. Then there’s sophomore EDGE phenom Colin Simmons, who notched nine sacks and 14 TFLs himself. Add in Arkansas transfer Brad Spence, and you’ve got a front-seven nightmare for any offense. Texas also lost key pieces in Jahdae Barron and Andrew Mukuba, who are off to the NFL. 

So yeah, Arch Manning might be the face of this Texas team, but it’s the defense that is the foundation. Still, if the kid stumbles and Texas drops to 9-3, the whispers could turn into roars.