Arch Manning entered the 2025 college football season as the undisputed king of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) valuations, with an estimated worth of $6.8 million according to On3. Everybody was hyped for the Eli Manning’s nephew, and that famous Manning name single-handedly helped push his market value through the roof, making him way more valuable than any other college player, ever.

But guess what? Nepotism will only take you as far as getting into the squad. After that, it’s up to you. Nepotism doesn’t hold any intrinsic value in college football or any sport for that matter. Even the big shots have to perform, and the first few weeks of Arch’s career start showed that being super hyped isn’t enough — you’ve got to play well.

The pre-season No.1 ranked Longhorns tripped in the very first game against the undisputed Ohio State in a 14-7 loss. Steve Sarkisian’s squad also had some pretty meh games against teams like San Jose State and UTEP. Although Manning’s play wasn’t exactly lighting it up either, and his NIL value took a hit. By Week 6, right before the big Red River Rivalry game, his estimated worth dropped to around $5 million. This dip made it super clear: if you’re not playing great, even with a famous name, your market value can drop.

But then came Week 7, and things started looking up for Manning. In the huge Red River Rivalry clash against Brent Venables’ Oklahoma, Arch Manning played okay enough to get the W comfortably. In his defense, he played smart enough so that the Texas defense can do its job. Arch Manning threw for 166 yards and a touchdown and also scrambled for 34 yards.

The Texas scored 20 unanswered points in the second. The big-time national media gave props to Arch Manning for handling the pressure very well. Even Coach Steve Sarkisian gave him props for his toughness, mentioning he didn’t miss a single practice rep even when he was “beat up.”

After Texas trounced Oklahoma 23-6, Manning’s NIL valuation got a boost, climbing back to $5.3 million. 350k plus. This might not be back to his starting value, but it shows that when he plays well, his value jumps right back up. Sports Illustrated also reports this win got him back on track after a previous dip.So, Arch Manning’s season has been like a wild ride, up and down. But even with the swings, he’s still a huge deal in the NIL world.

Arch Manning reacts to ‘Flop’ comment

Before Texas took down Oklahoma last weekend to improve to 4-2, The Athletic published a piece that turned quite a few heads — they called Arch Manning college football’s “first flop.” The article did mention that fans could show Manning a little more patience, but it still made it clear: through the first half of the season, he hasn’t lived up to the massive expectations that followed him to Austin.

In his six starts this season, Manning’s statistics have been pretty confusing. His touchdown numbers say he’s a top 10 QB in the Power 4, and his completion percentage tells he’s arguably a bottom 10 QB in all 4 conferences. He’s completed around 61% of his passes for 1,317 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 5 picks. Plus 194 rushing yards and five more scores on the ground.

The talent is clearly there — he’s made some highlight-reel throws — but inconsistency and off-target passes have held him back. When asked about the “flop” label, Manning kept it cool, saying, “I didn’t know that, I guess I do now. I wasn’t playing well, and I’m going to continue to get better.” He also admitted it’s hard to ignore the noise, joking that even when he tries, he gets “100 text messages” reminding him about it.

Still, Manning finally got the statement win he needed, leading Texas to a victory in the Red River Rivalry over a ranked Oklahoma team without a single turnover. But instead of celebrating, Manning kept things grounded, saying, “We won a game, but there’s a lot of work to do. You can’t ride the highs and lows, you’ve gotta stay even and keep going.” The road ahead feels more difficult for Arch Manning. Texas has no room for error now, both for the playoffs and for Arch Manning’s NIL sake.