There was a moment back in August when Steve Sarkisian’s Texas walked into the season wearing the No. 1 mantle. Fast forward to mid-November, and the shine has turned into stress, because their 35-10 loss to No. 5 Georgia has thrown their entire playoff roadmap into a blender. With three losses, the Longhorns’ path to the SEC Championship is gone. And the 12-team playoff selection committee isn’t exactly known for sympathy ballots. Last season, zero at-large teams got in with three losses. Still, there’s one reason Texas isn’t dead yet. And it’s maroon, loud, and undefeated.

Texas A&M. Nov. 28. College football’s most combustible rivalry is suddenly Texas’s last playoff lifeline. Beat Arkansas next week, then knock off the undefeated No. 3 Aggies right before Selection Sunday and the committee will at least have to consider Steve Sarkisian’s squad. A win over the SEC’s top unbeaten team carries real weight, even with three blemishes on the resume. And don’t the committee love context? 

Two of Texas’ losses came against legitimate top-five playoff contenders. Ohio State and Georgia. No shame there. The Florida loss was uglier than it needs to be, but the committee has overlooked stranger things when the final November chaos hits. But none of it matters unless Texas wins out. There’s no debate there. The last matchup, however, showed several red flags with Georgia rattling them. The Dawgs turned third downs into torture tests, kept Arch Manning vacillating between discomfort and dropped passes, and let Gunner Stockton paint the night with five touchdowns. The game even gave Kirby Smart a chance to dial up his first onside kick since 2016, his first ever at Georgia. And he nailed that punch Texas never recovered from.

After dropping to (-4) in ESPN’s FPI and falling out of the network’s 12-team projection, the Longhorns are officially in prove it or pack it territory. Steve Sarkisian says his group isn’t folding. “We’ve got a two-week season in front of us,” he said. “We’ve got to go play. We’ve got two games. It’s two games. Let’s go play. Let’s put our best foot forward and see what happens.” And that’s where the next chapter begins. Before Texas even dreams about sneaking into the bracket, they need to understand what kind of playoff landscape they’re trying to climb.

Where Texas stands in the 12-team CFP jungle

The College Football Playoff expanded last season, and 2025 marks version 2.0 of the 12-team bracket. The expansion was supposed to make life easier for bubble teams, but Texas is learning quickly that the new format doesn’t hand out charity invites. Five conference champions get auto-bids, the next seven highest-ranked squads fill the at-large slots, and seeding now runs straight 1-12. 

First-round games happen at campus sites, quarterfinals and semifinals shuffle through the New Year’s Six bowls, and Miami hosts this year’s title game. This means more chaos, more openings, and more heartbreak for anyone trying to squeeze in at the bottom. And speaking of teams trying to squeeze in, Texas isn’t alone at the three-loss table. Tennessee and Missouri are right there, but what the Longhorns do have in their corner is strength of competition. Steve Sarkisian’s team (7-3) still own the cleanest resume with top-10 wins over No. 6 Oklahoma and No. 9 Vanderbilt, and losses mostly against playoff heavyweights. 

If any three-loss SEC team gets an at-large look, it’s Texas but the margin is thin. But resume strength alone won’t save them unless they deliver a final, season-defining punch. And that punch has to come against Texas A&M. Beat the unbeaten Aggies, and Texas immediately enters the committee room as the most dangerous three-loss wildcard in the bracket. Lose, and the Longhorns will vanish from the playoff conversation entirely.