It’s been a winding road for Dave Aranda and the Baylor Bears. Heading into 2025, the program appears more stable than it’s been in years. After a rough 2023 campaign, Aranda’s crew clawed their way back in 2024 with a six-game conference win streak that rekindled belief in Waco. Now, expectations are firmly in place—not just for improvement, but for a legitimate Big 12 title push. And Aranda isn’t just working in silence. Not just this CBS reporter, but even a few anonymous coaches are suddenly high on the Bears.

CBS Sports’ Shehan Jeyarajah reflected his feelings on the Win Now or Get Bent podcast. “I think that Baylor’s a chance to be really really good,” he said. “They bring back a lot on offense.” And more importantly, they kept their three biggest pieces intact. OC Jake Spavital, QB Sawyer Robertson, and RB Bryson Washington. “They managed to bring all three of them back,” Jeyarajah added. “They managed to be a buyer in the portal instead of a loser in the portal. They managed to hold on to four of their five starting offensive linemen, and they added a lot of talent in the secondary.” That continuity, especially in a Big 12 that chews up teams with passing instability, could prove crucial.

Baylor’s late-season surge was evidence of systems clicking. Jeyarajah highlighted what that meant for Dave Aranda’s arc: “They started last year two and four and ultimately reeled off six straight to end Big 12 play… If they’re not one of those teams that’s competing at the end of the season, like I think that would be a disappointment.” The Bears won’t need perfection to reach Arlington, but they’ll need to avoid early stumbles this time. “You should be there in that top four to five with a chance at least heading into the end of November,” Jeyarajah concluded. For a coach who once led Baylor to a conference title in 2021. It’s a call back to a standard.

Big 12 coaches aren’t shying away from giving Dave Aranda and his staff their due credit. One anonymous coach told Athlon, “They could turn the corner and compete for the league title this season.” Another went even further: “They’ll go as far as they can with that backfield [Sawyer Robertson and Bryson Washington], and could be one of the best offenses in the nation this season.” It’s not just talk—Robertson flashed top-tier ability last season, and Washington’s blend of burst and patience gives the Bears one of the league’s most balanced attacks.

And it all starts with Spavital. Hired last season, the former Texas State coach is finally in his sweet spot—running an offense. One coach said, “The offense clicked, and it turned them around completely last season.” Another added, “Even though it didn’t work out into wins when he was here, everything he did putting the football program on the forefront… it really set the tone.” Spavital’s arrival brought a schematic identity, and most importantly, results. As another Big 12 staffer put it: “This program is a good example of the shift going on in college football. They stuck with the coach and put the resources into a team GM and focused on NIL, and they’re seeing results.”

Even the numbers reflect measured optimism. ESPN’s FPI metrics project Baylor to win 7.2 games in 2025 and finish 5 in the Big 12 standings. That would likely leave them just outside the Big 12 Championship Game. Close, but not quite there. But considering how far the program fell in 2023, sitting in that top-five range is a massive signal of progress.

Dave Aranda’s armada leader drawing NFL eyes

If you’re scanning the 2025 NFL Draft radar for a late-riser QB who could shock the board, start circling the name Sawyer Robertson. The Baylor QB is entering his fourth college season. And after a breakout 2024 campaign, he’s not just on scouts’ radar—he’s starting to light it up.

Robertson, a 6-foot-4, 210-pound signal-caller, finally took over as QB1 for the Bears last season and made every snap count. He threw for 3,071 yards with 28 touchdowns to just eight interceptions, leading the Bears to an 8–5 finish. That dual-threat upside combined with his deep-ball ability, is drawing early comparisons to some big names. And not just in college, draftniks are already keeping an eye on him.

“If you want a dude that’s going to come out of nowhere, it’s [Robertson]. He’s what everyone wants [Penn State’s] Drew Allar to be,” one AFC scout told ESPN’s Matt Miller. “Big, big arm, and he can move.”

It’s easy to see why the buzz is growing. He’s got the frame, he’s got the touch. To improve his draft stock in a class that could include Manning, Klubnik, Sellers, and Allar. Robertson is expected to quickly climb up the draft boards, especially with a full offseason in Jake Spavital’s offense and more national eyes on Waco.