There’s nothing straightforward about the College Football Playoff anymore. Ask Marcus Freeman, who woke up Tuesday to the kind of rankings twist that makes coaches groan. Notre Dame at No. 9, Miami at No. 13, and absolutely no clean path for the Hurricanes to take over the Irish. Yet somehow, the door creaked open anyway, and that’s where the controversy begins.

On November 18, ESPN College Football posted a section on X of what CFP Committee Chair Hunter Yurachek told Rece Davis about the situation.

“I think when you look at Notre Dame and Miami, we really compare the losses of those two teams. Miami has lost to two unranked teams Notre Dame has lost to two teams that are ranked in our top 13,” he said. “And so we really haven’t compared those two teams. They haven’t been in similar comparative pools to date.”

But he also added that Miami is “creeping up” into ND’s range, which could reopen the head-to-head file everyone assumed was shut. Exactly the kind of mixed messaging Marcus Freeman didn’t need this late in the season. But that’s only the start of the committee’s mixed messaging.

Rece Davis pressed further, asking how heavily head-to-head weighs once teams land in the same tier. Yurachek pointed to this week’s Alabama-Oklahoma debate, where OU got the nod based on a two-point win. The Tide suffered a significant drop from No. 4 to No. 10 after losing to the Sooners. “So if Miami and Notre Dame are in a comparable tier comparable range, the head-to-head will be a significant data point that we will use,” the chair added.

Suddenly, the game Miami won months ago becomes a live grenade under Marcus Freeman’s playoff hopes. But this directly contradicts what the committee implied earlier this season.

Two weeks ago, CFP chairman Mack Rhoades all but crowned Notre Dame the superior team, insisting Miami’s No. 18 debut, eight spots behind the Irish, reflected strong committee conviction. “Head-to-head really matters when the teams are comparable at the margins,” he said.

At the margins, they’re both 8-2 right now and likely 10-2 by the finish. And that sets the stage for the playoffs’ biggest problem yet. If Notre Dame sneaks in and Miami is left outside looking in, the Hurricanes would be the first team in CFP history with a legitimate, undeniable claim of being robbed. And just when the Irish thought the noise couldn’t get any louder, the conversation in Coral Gables took a sharp turn of its own.

Mario Cristobal’s confidence vs Marcus Freeman’s uncertainty 

In a Monday radio hit on AM 560, Mario Cristobal played it cool, insisting that if Miami wins out against Virginia Tech and Pitt, everything will work out. But here’s the problem. Even at 10-2, the Canes’ resume doesn’t exactly have a strong case to support them. No ACC title shot, no major scalp left on the board, and a schedule that doesn’t lift them high enough to jump Marcus Freeman’s Notre Dame without committee intervention. That’s where things get uncomfortably simple.

If both teams finish 10-2, the comparison becomes direct. And frankly, Notre Dame looks better. Since losing two games by a combined four points, including a one-point shootout against No. 3 Texas A&M, Marcus Freeman’s group has controlled every Saturday and shaped itself into the one team outside the Big Ten that might actually scare Ohio State. Miami, meanwhile, has its own visual problem. 

The Hurricanes have been streaky, with an overtime loss to SMU and a narrow defeat to Louisville. Nothing disqualifying, but nothing screaming “elite” either. And when Notre Dame’s best wins are USC and Navy, the committee would have no business pretending the head-to-head doesn’t exist. For the head-to-head to matter, Miami must land within two spots of Notre Dame during the committee’s tiered debates. If that doesn’t happen, Marcus Freeman slides in, Miami gets iced, and the CFP owns its most illogical decision ever.