The ‘hot seat’ is a term thrown around very often in college football. Blame it on Jimbo Fisher’s firing, which has given the wrong thought of the concept. In reality, firing head coaches like Lincoln Riley and Brian Kelly with massive buyouts is a tough call in itself. Don’t forget the ensuing headache of finding another coach. And yet, with USC’s early stumbles and LSU’s uneven footing, the noise grows louder. What do Lincoln Riley and USC need to do this season?

FOX Sports’ Joel Klatt asked that very question. And Colin Cowherd, never one to tiptoe around the issue, delivered a pointed answer about Riley’s security and the reality of today’s financial landscape. “Well, I’ve told you this before. The NIL, these coaches that all hate it, it actually makes many of the coaches unfireable,” Cowherd said. “Because if I’m spending $18 million on players, you can’t go to a booster and go, ‘Hey, by the way, can you buy out Lincoln Riley for 72 million and pay the next coach 80 million?’ And he’s like, ‘I’m already giving you 7 million a year for players.’ So the truth is Lincoln Riley’s unfireable.”

“I mean, Brian Kelly, you can’t run him out of town. They’re struggling to make NIL payments. USC just spent $300 million on the facility, $18 million on NIL. What Jen Cohen’s going to go, you know what? I want an $80 million check for Lincoln and then 80 to hire his replacement. So, the bottom line is Lincoln’s safe.” A lot of ESPN personalities aren’t keen on the 2x AP COTY Kelly. Paul Finebaum made it clear that LSU’s fan base won’t tolerate another season without a trip to the CFP. Peter Burns and Chris Doering believe it’s unlikely LSU will move on from Kelly after the 2025 season. It all comes down to money.

That’s the key: the math doesn’t add up for a pink slip. The financial gravity surrounding NIL and facilities has altered the way programs move. For now, the USC Trojans have invested too much to even think about a reset button. But while Lincoln Riley isn’t walking the plank, he’s not coaching in calm waters either. Cowherd himself admitted, “I don’t like their offensive personnel. Now, they have Ja’Kobi Lane and Makai Lemon. I think they have a couple of really interesting receivers. Lane’s got a very unique body type. I also think Elijah Paige, who they flipped from Notre Dame at the very end, is their left tackle.” 3 nice players, a couple of nice receivers, a good LT.

“But I look at Lincoln Riley’s history at Oklahoma, USC is like I don’t love them at quarterback.” That last part cuts to the heart of this year’s story: USC without a definitive QB1 edge. Strange as it sounds, Riley, the so-called “QB whisperer”, enters 2025 without a Caleb Williams or Kyler Murray to lean on. Five-star freshman Husan Longstreet waits in the wings, but burning his redshirt early could unravel depth. Transfer Jayden Maiava has shown growth — Riley himself has expressed confidence in the UNLV product — but he’s still an unpolished instrument compared to the maestro’s previous options. This feels like a piano missing its highest keys.

The skill talent isn’t exactly overflowing either. Makai Lemon led USC in 2024 with 764 receiving yards, while Ja’Kobi Lane followed with 525 but salvaged his year by punching in 12 TDs. Both return, but there’s no 1,000-yard pass catcher to tilt defenses. Lane is healthy after his spring foot fracture, which helps, but the numbers don’t lie. This offense lacks the headline weapon USC has been known for. Riley will have to scheme around efficiency, stacking wrinkles, and leaning on the run game behind pros like Noah and Paige to open throwing lanes.

The Trojans have spent too much money to be irrelevant, and while the buyout shields him from immediate flames, the long game still demands results. That’s the paradox.

Lincoln Riley isn’t on the hot seat, but the chair isn’t cold either

Moreover, Cowherd spotlighted the issues that he sees with the Trojans that make him believe that 2025 will be another season in which Riley wins 8 games. “It looks like an eight-win team. It’s the only Lincoln team I’ve ever looked at.”

The irony, of course, is that USC might actually be sturdier on the other side of the ball. “I think they’re better personnel on defense,” Cowherd noted. “And I like the defensive staff that they flushed out last year. [Anthony Ray “D’Anton”] Lynn, the defensive coordinator, I think a really sharp guy. So, you can talk about flushing him out. He’s going nowhere. They’re having a very good 2026 recruiting class. NIL, Jen Cohen, the AD’s done a terrific job to raise funds to kind of galvanize all the boosters. They’re bigger than they’ve been.” That’s not lip service — USC’s 2026 class already sits No. 1 in the Rivals rankings. The infrastructure is in place.

But as Cowherd said, this still looks like an eight-win roster. The Trojans’ first four games are manageable tune-ups, but September 27 at Illinois looms as a real temperature check. The road dates at Notre Dame and Oregon feel like uphill climbs. Being unranked in the preseason AP poll tells you what the national lens thinks.